Yahoo DFS Soccer: Saturday EPL Picks

Yahoo DFS Soccer: Saturday EPL Picks

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Soccer series.

MATCHES (EDT)

11:00 a.m: Cardiff City v. Leicester City
11:00 a.m: Everton v. Brighton
11:00 a.m: Newcastle v. Watford
11:00 a.m: West Ham v. Burnley
1:30 p.m: Arsenal v. Liverpool
3:45 p.m: Wolves v. Tottenham

FORWARDS

Marko Arnautovic, WHU v. BRN (£20): No team has allowed more shots and shots on goal in the Premier League this season than Burnley, and Arnautovic comes in leading West Ham in goals (four), shots (26) and shots on goal (12). While he missed last weekend's match against Leicester City because of illness, he was incredibly active in his two prior games, taking five shots in each, including putting four on goal against Tottenham on Oct. 20. It also doesn't hurt that not a single player outside of Liverpool (away to Arsenal), Arsenal (home to Liverpool) or Spurs (away to Wolves) has better anytime goal scorer odds. Speaking of those three teams, you could make a reasonable argument to fade all three given their somewhat tough matchups and expensive salaries, which makes it much easier to side with players like Arnautovic or...

Richarlison, EVE v. BHA (£21): Everton are the biggest favorites on the slate, and Richarlison has been leading the line for the Toffees. His shot volume has decreased a bit recently, but a matchup against a Brighton side allowing the second-most shots per game could certainly help him in that regard. Additionally, he's still drawing fouls as a high rate, getting at least three in five straight Premier league games, including five last weekend at Manchester United, and he'll now face a Brighton side that's committed the most fouls this season. Richarlison actually has the same anytime goal scorer odds as Arnautovic, so if you're looking to fade the three top-six teams, pairing these two makes sense.

Mohamed Salah, LIV at ARS (£24): If you're intent on rostering at least one player from Liverpool, Arsenal or Tottenham, I think Salah makes the most sense, even playing away to Arsenal. The Gunners are undefeated in their last 13, but they haven't faced an opponent like Liverpool or a player like Salah, who leads Liverpool in shots (40, the second-most in the Premier League), shots on goal (17, the second-most in the Premier League), assists (three) and chances created (20). It also doesn't hurt that he comes in with four goals on 12 shots (seven on goal) and two assists in his last three starts in all competitions, or that he has the best anytime goal scorer odds on the slate.

MIDFIELDERS

Gylfi Sigurdsson, EVE v. BHA (£19): Sigurdsson could be the most popular midfielder on the slate given his great play of late and matchup against Brighton, who have allowed the second-most shots, third-most shots on goal, third-most accurate crosses, second-most corners, second-most chances created and most fouls drawn. The Sigurdsson we're seeing now is much closer to the one we used to roster when he played for Swansea, as he's averaging 2.68 shots, including 0.97 on target, 2.15 accurate crosses, 1.72 fouls drawn and 1.29 interceptions per 90 minutes this season, and his attacking returns have actually been better of late, with four goals on 17 shots (eight on target) in his last four games. If you really want to go all-in with your Everton stack, adding Theo Walcott (£17) isn't crazy, as he's put at least one shot on goal in five straight games (in fact, all eight of his shots over that span were on goal).

Josh Murphy, CC v. LEI (£14): Murphy really struggled in last weekend's 4-1 loss at Liverpool, but a return home to face Leicester should get him back on track. It's not that Leicester are a poor defensive team, but Murphy has shown a number of times this season that he can produce well, including his three prior games to the match at Anfield when he had 14 shots, including six on goal, and 12 fouls drawn. He also found the back of the net twice in that span, understandably failing to do so away to Tottenham.

James Maddison, LEI at CC (£20): The other side of Cardiff's match shouldn't be avoided, and while Maddison hasn't gotten on the scoresheet in three straight league matches, he'll now line up against a Cardiff defense that has allowed multiple goals in six of their last seven league games, including four with at least three. Maddison is still doing plenty thanks to his central role in the Foxes' attack, as he's taken six shots, created seven chances, sent in six accurate crosses and won five fouls over his last three, giving him a decent floor even if he doesn't find the back of the net. Paying up for Maddison makes it tough to also add in players like Sadio Mane (£22) or Christian Eriksen (£20), but he definitely has the best matchup of the group.

DEFENDERS

Lucas Digne, EVE v. BHA (£15): Digne's partial role on set pieces gives him decent upside for a defender, and it also doesn't hurt that Everton have the best clean sheet odds on the slate. He's had multiple shots or chances created in three straight games, winning four tackles and drawing five fouls over that span. Given their slate-leading win and clean sheet odds, multiple Everton defenders is a reasonable strategy, with Seamus Coleman (£14) also offering attacking upside.

Fabian Balbuena, WHU v. BRN (£13): Balbuena's goal in last week's draw with West Ham clouds things a little because it feels like we're chasing goals, which is a poor strategy for any position, let alone a centerback, but it at least opened our eyes to the fact that Balbuena has taken multiple shots in each of his last three games, and through 10 games only Arnautovic and Michail Antonio (£15, midfielder) have taken more shots for the Hammers. That being said, this is still a defensive play, with the hope that West Ham, who have just one clean sheet this season (though they haven't allowed multiple goals since Aug. 25 against Arsenal), will be able to keep out a Brighton side that's been held to one or zero goals in five straight.

Harry Maguire, LEI v. CC (£16): Maguire is the most expensive Leicester defender, but he's also the most consistent fantasy scorer thanks to his shot floor, mostly from set pieces. Leicester are playing away, but they still have the third-best clean sheet odds against a Cardiff side that exploded for four goals in their last home game, which came against Fulham, but that output represents nearly 45 percent of their season total. It wouldn't be a bad idea if you wanted to save slightly with Ben Chilwell (£15) or Ricardo Pereira (£15), though I think Maguire is worth the slight increase.

GOALKEEPER

Jordan Pickford, EVE v. BHA (£15): The goalkeeper pricing is pretty narrow for Saturday's slate, so pairing Pickford with a few Everton defenders makes sense, especially with Alisson, who has the third-highest win odds and seventh-highest for a clean sheet, and Hugo Lloris, who has the fifth-highest win and fourth-highest clean sheet odds, £1 more expensive. It's not that Everton are overwhelming favorites over Brighton, but they're the safest defense to target, with West Ham's Lukasz Fabianski (£15) probably next on the list.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Andrew M. Laird plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: kingmorland, DraftKings: andrewmlaird, Yahoo: Lairdinho.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andrew M. Laird
Andrew M. Laird, the 2017 and 2018 FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's Head of DFS Content and Senior Soccer Editor. He is a nine-time FSWA award finalist, including twice for Football Writer of the Year.
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