Honda Classic Preview: Koepka's the Favorite by Default

The PGA Tour heads to Palm Beach Gardens this week as the annual Florida swing tees off. Interestingly, last season saw one PGA Tour rookie and three Euro's take the four Florida titles, but the way this season is going, I'm going to assume we might see something different. 

The Honda Classic has seen its share of big-name winners throughout the years, but there are also some lesser known names sprinkled in. In other words, this doesn't have to be a chalk week, but there's certainly reason to a top golfer will win. 

There are some big names in the field, but compared to the last two weeks, this isn't the strongest field we'll see this season. Noticeably absent is Rory McIlroy, who has a tremendous track record at this event, but Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler and Justin Rose are competing. There's plenty of course history in play as well as PGA National has been the only course used for this event since 2007.  

Honda Classic – PGA National, Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.

Last Year: Keith Mitchell shot a final-round 67 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Rickie Fowler and Brooks Koepka.    

FAVORITES

Brooks Koepka (12-1)

Right out of the gate we can see the oddsmakers have no clue who is winning this week as the favorite is 12-1. Koepka tops the list because, quite frankly, there's nobody else to put there. Koepka's track record here is nothing special. He has a runner-up, but prior to that, his best finish was a T26 in 2016. His recent form is nothing to write home about either as he's still getting his form back after an extended break. Bottom line, there's not much value with Koepka this week.

Tommy Fleetwood (12-1)  

It's a little surprising to see Fleetwood as the co-favorite this week as he's only played this event once, and although it was a good showing (T4), it's not like he won. He's coming off a decent showing last week in Mexico where he posted a T18 but was never in contention. Fleetwood could make some noise this week, but at 12-1, this isn't the way to go.                  

Rickie Fowler (14-1)

With McIlroy absent, Fowler might have the most impressive track record of anyone in the field this week. He won this event in 2017, finished runner-up last year and has posted top-10s in 2016 and 2012. The only question about Fowler this week is his form as his two most recent starts have resulted in a missed cut and a T37. That said, of the favorites, Fowler has the most value this week. 

MID-TIER GOLFERS                         

Justin Rose (20-1)

Rose enters under the radar, which might be a good thing. His track record here is actually quite impressive but he hasn't played here since 2015 and that start resulted in a missed cut. Prior to that, however, Rose posted top-5s in three consecutive starts here. The issue with Rose, though, is his current form. In two starts on the PGA Tour this calendar year, Rose has posted a T56 and a missed cut.                    

Viktor Hovland (25-1)

What are the odds that he can win two in a row on the PGA Tour? Obviously not good, but it's been done before. The question this week and in the coming weeks is how Hovland will handle his newfound success? We've seen plenty of younger golfers pick up that first win, only to get complacent and fade away for months or even years. Hovland appears to be different, though. Since day one he's been at another level, and the win last week in Puerto Rice should only boost his confidence and his overall play.                    

Billy Horschel (30-1)

Horschel certainly caught some attention last week as he got plenty of weekend coverage on his way to a T9 in Mexico. He also posted a T9 in his previous start at the Phoenix Open, so it's fair to say that he's on a bit of a roll. His track record here is fairly solid as well, with top-10s in two of his last four starts here and a top-20 here last year.                    

LONGSHOTS

Erik van Rooyen (50-1)  

Anyone who pays attention to the European Tour, or for that matter, anyone who followed the majors last year, is certainly aware of how good this guy is. We witnessed his game last week in Mexico as he hung in there quite a while. This is his first start at this event, which can be a deterrent, but having played most of his golf overseas, he'll be a first-timer at many event this year and that shouldn't deter you.      

Lee Westwood (60-1)  

Perhaps a bit of a reach, but he did win overseas just a few weeks ago and his track record here is pretty good. Westwood has teed it up seven times at this event and has made the weekend every time. He's also thrown in three top-10s over those seven starts. He hasn't played here since 2015, which could be an issue, but at 60-1, you aren't going to find the perfect resume.  

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Highly Owned Pick: Rickie Fowler - With his track record, and McIlroy's absence, Fowler likely will be the most highly owned player in the OAD format this week. I'm not going this route, but I could make a case for Fowler, as he usually plays well at this event. The risk lies in his recent form, which is certainly a concern.                        

Moderately Owned Pick: Justin Rose - It's tough to overlook Rose's track record here. He hasn't played here in a while, but when he was playing here often, he lit it up. Like Fowler, though, there is a concern about form. The question then is whether you take a chance on him this week or save him for another spot. If you aren't saving him, this might be the best spot to use him.                

Lightly Owned Pick: Billy Horschel - Perhaps it is wishful thinking that Horschel will be lightly owned, as this is the route I'm going. But with two of the biggest names in the field (Rose and Fowler) with good track records here, I assume they'll take up the majority of the ownership. If so, Horschel's value increases even more.                            

Buyer Beware: Brooks Koepka - This almost goes without saying now, but Koepka is always a concern outside of a major because of his apparent lack of motivation. That said, I don't think motivation is the major issue now; I think Koepka is still working back into form. As such, he's not a good play this week as his value obviously lies at one of the four majors.                          

Last Week: Dustin Johnson (T48) $45,500; Season - $2,161,625  

This Week: Billy Horschel - I started on Fowler this week, then switched to Rose and finally ended  on Horschel. Of the three, Horschel has the best mix of recent play and track record at this event. As mentioned, hopefully he didn't grab too much attention last week in Mexico and I can get him with some low ownership in my leagues.    

FANDUEL PICKS  

High/Mid/Low: Billy Horschel ($10,900)/Erik van Rooyen ($10,200)/Russell Henley ($8,800)

SURVIVOR PICK

Last Week: no cut; Streak - 6

This Week: Lee Westwood - Although I love Horschel in the OAD format, he has missed the cut in half of his start here, which means there's a little too much risk to take him in this format. Instead, I'll go with Westwood who has yet to miss a cut here. There is some risk in the fact that he hasn't played here in five years, but his current form should carry him into the weekend.