This article is part of our FanDuel PGA series.
Medinah Country Club No. 3 (7,613 yards, par-72)
$1,665,000 and 2,000 FedEx Cup points to the winner
Variations to the format of the FedEx Cup Playoffs spice things up for the BMW Championship, as the list of 69 entrants will not only be competing for a spot in the TOUR Championship at East Lake, but more starting strokes – ranging from zero to 10 – as well. A limited, yet appealing field will tee it up at Medinah Country Club, which last hosted the Ryder Cup in 2012 when Team Europe won by a single point. A handful of the figures playing that weekend figure to contribute to the script again this week. Also in the drama department, Hideki Matsuyama (33rd), Tiger Woods (38th) and Jordan Spieth (44th) are among several key names hovering just outside of the top-30 bubble heading into the midpoint of the playoffs.
Key Stats to Victory
The last player to hoist a trophy on the grounds of Medinah CC in a stroke-play setting was Tiger Woods, who claimed victory at the 2006 PGA Championship, his second major victory at this venue following his triumph in 1999. The BMW Championship has not been held at Medinah since the 1960s, when the event was known as the Western Open. Despite the limited statistical information available regarding past champions at this course, we do know the track is a lengthy 7,613 yards with somewhat generous fairways and small greens that require precise iron play in order to post a sufficient GIR percentage. Bentgrass putting surfaces are undulating and relatively quick, but scattered showers are in the forecast and would help ease the stress level of putting on normally slick greens.
FanDuel Value Picks
Brooks Koepka, $12,200 - The world No. 1 spent a portion of his week at the Northern Trust chirping the likes of Bryson DeChambeau and Brandel Chamblee – and likely other quirky figures in the golf world – but that doesn't stop Koepka from being the betting favorite this week, alongside Rory McIlroy, at 8/1 on GolfOdds.com. Despite breaking par in all four rounds at Liberty National, Koepka coasted to a mediocre T30. Luckily, his scoring in DFS formats was boosted by a pair of eagles. Nonetheless, he ranked fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee and remains atop the FedEx Cup Standings heading into the second leg of the playoffs.
Justin Thomas, $11,500 - Thomas is pacing the field in SG: Approach over his last 50 rounds, and when limiting the sample size to his 16 most recent strolls around the course, he has gained no less than 4.5 strokes on approach shots over his last four starts. Thomas has endured major struggles with the flat stick since late February, but his ball striking has carried him to respectable top-12s in each of his last three showings. Additionally, JT leads the entire PGA Tour in birdie average this season.
Justin Rose, $11,400 - Significant improvements with the flat stick have Rose all the way up to second on Tour in SG: Putting, and he just finished third in this metric at the Northern Trust on the way to his fifth straight top-20. The Englishman has not lost strokes with the putter since the Arnold Palmer Invitational in early March, and he also leads the PGA in proximity from 50-125 yards and has gained strokes off the tee in 10 of his last 11 starts.
Patrick Cantlay, $11,200 - Cantlay had the putter rolling last week in New Jersey on the way to his second straight 12th-place finish, and he's now gained at least 2.7 strokes from tee-to-green in eight consecutive performances. He led the entire field in birdies throughout the Northern Trust with 24 tweeters, including 14 in his final 36 holes. Cantlay is up to sixth in the FedEx Cup standings, third in proximity from 175-200 yards and second in scoring average.
Longer Shots Worth a Risk
Joaquin Niemann, $8,700 - Niemann posted his sixth top-30 result in seven starts last week, and his late-season surge moved him up to 70th in the FedExCup Standings and helped him secure the final spot in this week's field. Niemann ranks 24th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 26th in SG: Approach and 30th in total driving, and he's also gained strokes putting in three straight measured events. He's gained an average of 4.1 strokes from tee-to-green in his past 10 tournaments.
Ryan Moore, $8,500 - Moore took nearly a month-long break from competition after his T18 at the John Deere Classic, but he posted another top-20 in his return to action at Liberty National, where he carded three scores of 68 or better and ranked sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green. On the season, Moore sits No. 2 in driving accuracy, 22nd in SG: Approach and third in putting from 15-20 feet.
Byeong-Hun An, $8,300 - Second to none in SG: Around-the-Green over his last 36 rounds, An also leads the PGA Tour in this metric when examining the entirety of the 2018-19 campaign. He's sneaky long off the tee at 16th in driving distance and one of the most precise iron players from 150-200 yards. We saw An in legitimate contention for his maiden victory just two weeks ago at the Wyndham Championship, and it will take a similar performance at Medinah CC in order to have any chance at advancing to East Lake.
Lucas Glover, $8,000 - This is an extremely intriguing price for someone who has amassed 15 top-25s this season. Glover ranks 58th or better in every SG subcategory, and he has gained a solid average of 4.3 strokes from tee-to-green and 3.4 strokes off-the-tee over his last five tournaments. Glover is also 11th in proximity, fifth in scrambling and 10th in putting from 15-20 feet.
Strategy Tips for this week (based on 60k standard salary cap)
Assuming additional risk and targeting elite ball-strikers is necessary in most formats when considering, given the absence of a 36-hole cut this week, all six selections will be guaranteed four rounds. Risk doesn't necessarily mean reaching down for Tiger Woods at $10,200 as he returns from an oblique injury, however, and Dustin Johnson is another fade to consider at the detrimental price of $12,000. DJ has uncharacteristically lost strokes off the tee in three of his last four starts and has not putted well since the PGA Championship in mid-May.