Streaming Defenses: Week 14 Options

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Published on December 3, 2019

There's no point beating around the bush — last week may have been the worst performance in my four years of writing up D/ST streaming recommendations. The five units I discussed combined for just 21 fantasy points, with 10 of those coming from the fifth and final selection, Green Bay.

The worst part? I was expecting a great week, as we had defenses with low-to-medium ownership in matchups against the Redskins, Dolphins, Bengals, Broncos and Giants. I've had a ton of success over the years streaming mediocre defenses against mistake-prone quarterbacks, so it was a major surprise to see face-plants from four of the five picks for Week 13.

Unfortunately, the week ahead looks rather difficult, featuring a major drop off after the second selection. On the bright side, we do have three defenses that technically don't meet our ownership criteria for this space but may nonetheless be available in some competitive leagues. The Vikings, Brown and Jets are 62-to-65 percent owned on Yahoo and each land in the top-seven of my Week 14 rankings. I'd start any of them over our Nos. 3-5 picks below: Dallas, Tampa Bay and Atlanta.

For injury/ranking updates throughout the week, follow me on Twitter (@RotowireNFL_JD).

Note: These recommendations are limited to team defenses with ownership of less than 60 percent on Yahoo or 30 percent on ESPN as of Tuesday morning. Any references to fantasy points are based on Yahoo standard scoring, which doesn't include yards allowed.

Top Streaming Options for

For injury/ranking updates throughout the week, follow me on Twitter (@RotowireNFL_JD).

Top Streaming Options for Week 14

1. Green Bay Packers (vs. Washington Redskins)

49% Yahoo ownership, 24% ESPN

Team implied total: 27.5

Opponent implied total: 14.5

Upcoming Ranks — Week 15: No. 6 (vs. CHI), Week 16: No. 27 (at MIN)

Playing as 13-point favorites in a home game against a rookie quarterback, the Packers defense is worthy of waiver priority or significant FAAB allotment for fantasy managers facing a playoff matchup or a do-or-die regular-season finale. It's tempting to chase guys like Raheem Mostert, Benny Snell and Derrius Guice, but I'd rather prioritize a top-three D/ST option unless one of the popular RB adds is a legitimate candidate to land in my starting lineup. Alexander Mattison is one noteworthy exception, offering legit RB1 appeal if Dalvin Cook misses any time with a shoulder injury (FWIW, Cook said that won't happen). Granted, it makes sense to prioritize the aforementioned running backs if you're scrambling to fill an RB2 or FLEX spot.

Getting back to the matter at hand, the Packers defense offers a nice floor even if Washington continues its success on the ground with Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson. Dwayne Haskins has taken three or more sacks in each of four starts, and his 14.2 percent sack rate would be worst in the league if he had enough dropbacks to qualify (as would his 4.5 INT rate). Washington has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to D/STs, including six or more in each of Haskins' starts.

2. Houston Texans (vs. Denver Broncos)

27% Yahoo ownership, 14% ESPN

Team implied total: 25.5

Opponent implied total: 16.0

Upcoming Ranks — Week 15: No. 16 (at TEN), Week 16: No. 11 (at TB)

The Broncos picked up a win in Drew Lock's NFL debut, but the rookie threw for just 4.8 yards per pass attempt, putting up 23 points with the help of short fields from turnovers and penalties. Meanwhile, the Texans shut down Tom Brady until garbage time, one week after a key win over the Colts. I still don't have much faith in this Houston defense with J.J. Watt (pectoral) out for the season, but a home game against Lock is a matchup worth chasing, especially after we look at the betting line (41.5 O/U, Texans -9.5).

3. Dallas Cowboys (at Chicago Bears)

39% Yahoo ownership, 43% ESPN

Team implied total: 23.0

Opponent implied total: 20.0

Upcoming Ranks — Week 15: No. 14 (vs. LAR), Week 16: No. 22 (at PHI)

Following the theme of mediocre defenses facing unreliable quarterbacks, the Cowboys get a Week 14 matchup against Mitchell Trubisky. This is a big drop off from starting the Packers or Texans, but we should at least get a decent floor with a pass-happy offense taking on a defense ranked ninth in QB pressure rate (26.5) and 14th in sack rate (7.3).

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Indianapolis Colts)

2% Yahoo ownership, 3% ESPN

Team implied total: 25.25

Opponent implied total: 22.25

Upcoming Ranks — Week 15: No. 13 (at DET), Week 16: No. 26 (vs. HOU)

The Bucs defense has been surprisingly competent for fantasy purposes, in large part because its excellent work against the run inspires opponents to chuck the ball around, which leads to more yardage but also more chances for sacks and takeaways. Road games in Atlanta and Jacksonville the past two weeks produced a total of 11 sacks, six turnovers, two TDs and 39 fantasy points, marking the third and fourth times this year the Bucs D/ST has reached double digits for fantasy scoring.

We wouldn't normally think of the Colts as a friendly matchup, but Jacoby Brissett hasn't been able to keep his head above water while watching his teammates drop like flies. With Eric Ebron (ankle) on IR and both T.Y. Hilton (calf) and Marlon Mack (hand) looking uncertain to return this week, Frank Reich may need to craft another gameplan starring Brissett, Zach Pascal, Jack Doyle, Jordan Wilkins, Nyheim Hines and Jonathan Williams....yuck.

These were the two pockets at the top of Jacoby Brissett's drop on his interceptions.
Shocking to see these clean pockets and then see the two INTs come not even close to being completed. pic.twitter.com/Ou3okwV0yE
— Kevin Bowen (@KBowen1070) December 2, 2019

5. Atlanta Falcons (vs. Carolina Panthers)

8% Yahoo ownership, 10% ESPN

Team implied total: 25.5

Opponent implied total: 22.5

Upcoming Ranks — Week 15: No. 32 (at SF), Week 16: No. 19 (vs. JAX)

This is our weekly "cover-your-nose" matchup, pitting the improved-but-still-stinky Falcons defense against the declining-from-bad-to-horrible Kyle Allen. I don't expect anything close to a repeat of the 26 fantasy points we saw in this same matchup three weeks ago, but I'll happily chase the notion that Allen is likely to concede at least four of five points even when he's facing a lousy defense. The Panthers have given up the 10th-most FPs to team defenses on the year, including five or more in six consecutive games since a Week 7 bye. They're an absolute mess.