This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The Week 10 tickets were a disaster, our first winless week of the season, with three of our bets ruined by the Saints shockingly going down to the Falcons in New Orleans while the Colts lost to the previously one-loss Dolphins. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes threw for well over 350 yards, but the Chiefs ended up losing to the Titans 35-32.
Undeterred, we're back for Week 11, with a few bets similar to last week that might be worth pursing for an extra payout than straight spread or total bets. As a reminder, if you're looking for help in those areas, check out Chris Liss' Beating the Book column and our weekly Staff Picks, the latter of which includes unanimous picks for Steelers +3 and Broncos +10.5.
Chiefs and Chargers to both score 25 points (+235)
Monday night's game between the Chiefs and Chargers in Mexico City has the highest total of Week 11 at 52.5, with the Chiefs 4.0-point "road" favorites. Both teams are fully capable of putting up points, but this one will likely come down to whether the Chargers' offense can get there against a slightly improved Chiefs defense. San Diego Los Angeles has only scored more than 25 three times this season, but their team total of 24.0 certainly implies the expectation is they'll get close. Though the juice is slightly favoring the under 24.0 (-112 vs. -108), we'll get a significantly better payoff than simply taking the Chargers to hit 25 against the Chiefs, who allowed 26 to the Jaguars in Week 1, 28 to the Ravens in Week 3, 30 to the Lions in Week 4, 31 to the Texans in Week 6, 31 to the Packers in Week 8 and 35 to the Titans last weekend.
Ezekiel Elliott to rush for 100+ yards / Dallas Cowboys to win (+150)
The Cowboys are 7.0-point favorites against the Lions, who will be without starting quarterback Matthew Stafford due to injury. With a total of 46.5, the expectation is the Cowboys should dominate the Lions, who have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards among teams that have played nine games. Meanwhile, Elliott has rushed for more than 100 yards five times this season, including three times in his last four games. With 20+ carries expected again, not to mention the Cowboys -310 moneyline favorites, the biggest concern with this bet is whether Elliott stays in the game long enough to reach the century mark, though the expectation is that if they're ahead he'll be used heavily to run the game out.
49ers -3.5 vs. Cardinals (-240), Vikings -3.5 vs. Broncos (-250), Raiders -3.5 vs. Bengals (-300) parlay (+164)
This is a similar bet to the one that didn't work out in Week 10, with two of the three double-digit favorites in that bet (Colts and Saints) inexplicably losing outright. But we're back again to show how different the payout can be when double-digit favorites cover by just more than a field goal instead of winning outright. A moneyline parlay of the 49ers (-430), Vikings (-490) and Raiders (-600) only comes out to -137, and you don't have to worry about them actually covering the 10.5, 10.5 and 11.5 spreads, respectively. Last week obviously showed us the danger in these types of bets, but if you're someone who thinks double-digit favorites are sure things, you can get a bigger payout if you think these sure-things can each win by more than a field goal.
Saints -4.5 at Buccaneers and over 43.5 (+160)
This is an alternative spread/total parlay, as the spread is still 4.5 between the two teams but the regular total is actually 49.5, down from a high of 52.0. I'll be honest that I also considered the Saints -4.5 and over 51.5 points at +290, but I still believe the Saints' defense is good enough to possibly hold the Bucs to a low enough total that hitting at least 52 might be tough. If you feel otherwise, the bet is waiting to be placed. Only three of five people picked the Saints -5.5 in our Staff Picks, and while the line is moving against them, it seems like a solid spot to bounce back offensively against a Bucs' defense that can't stop any opposing passing game, an area of significant strength for the Saints.
