This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Week 9 didn't treat our picks well, going 1-3 because the Packers laid a giant egg at San Diego, the Jets couldn't even score 20 points against the Dolphins and the long-shot Bills defense couldn't score a touchdown against hapless Washington. However, Russell Wilson came through in the clutch to at least let us hit the +210 odds on completing 25+ passes in a Seahawks win.
There are some bigger favorites this week, so we have a little more room to play with; let's dive into the Week 10 tickets.
Saints -3.5 vs. Falcons (-380), Ravens -3.5 at Bengals (-260) and Colts -3.5 vs. Dolphins (-270) parlay (+140)
The Saints, Ravens and Colts are each double-digit favorites this week, with the Saints giving 13.5 to the Falcons in New Orleans, the Ravens 10.5 at Cincinnati and the Colts 10.5 at home against the Dolphins. A moneyline parlay of all three is -158 (Saints -750, Ravens -500, Colts -500), but allowing them to win by a little more than a field goal at least gets us into positive territory. I'll be honest, I considered doing this same bet at -6.5, basically betting that each would win by at least a touchdown, but the Colts just always seem to find themselves in close games, so I got nervous.
Falcons and Saints to both score 20 points (+116)
The Falcons vs. Saints game has a 51.5-point total, the second-highest of the weekend behind the Cardinals vs. Buccaneers at 52.0. While that game has a close 4.5-point spread in favor of the home team, the Saints are expected to blow out the Falcons, coming in with a 13.5-point spread. The real question for this bet is whether the Falcons can reach 20, as their implied total of 19 makes that hardly a sure thing. However, Matt Ryan will start for the Falcons, and we have to believe that he'll do enough in garbage time to get there. I'm not expecting the Saints' defense to give up a ton of points, though if you think both teams get to 25, that's sitting at +390. You can also play this game with the Cardinals vs. Buccaneers game, though the odds aren't as good since it's supposed to be a closer game, with both teams scoring 20 at -140 and both 25 at +235.
Marlon Mack anytime TD and Colts win (+100)
The Dolphins have been one of the worst teams in the NFL against the run, allowing the most rushing yards this season, and the Colts are fully expected to continue using Mack heavily out of the backfield. Mack's odds for an anytime touchdown are -145, and with the Colts 10.5-point home favorites, why not get a little more for their win (-500 moneyline) and tie them to the guy who is most likely to touch the ball more than anyone else in the game, especially in the red zone. I also wouldn't hesitate much on Marlon Mack rushing for 100+ yards and Colts win at +146.
Patrick Mahomes to throw for 350+ yards and Chiefs win (+215)
Mahomes is not expected to be limited at all in his return from a knee injury, and the Chiefs come in as 5.5-point favorites at Tennessee. The -250 moneyline for the Chiefs is obviously no fun, and having to rely on Ryan Tannehill to help get over the 49.5-point total isn't an avenue I want to go down, but combining Mahomes throwing for at least 350 yards, which he did in the first three games of the season when he was fully healthy, with a Chiefs win gives us a much nicer payout. The Titans are decent defensively against the pass on paper, but we need to at least look at the fact that they allowed over 300 yards to Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers and Jameis Winston while putting up good defensive numbers against Baker Mayfield (285 yards), Jacoby Brissett (146), Gardner Minshew (204), Josh Allen (219), Joe Flacco (177) and Kyle Allen (232). Three hundred and fifty yards is well within Mahomes' bounds, and even if the Chiefs get ahead in the first half, we've seen Mahomes pile up enough yards in the first two quarters to get us close.
