This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Last week's results were a bit of a disaster, with our lone bet that hit a Bills special teams touchdown at +310 to help erase the losses from the Ravens and Seahawks not each scoring a rushing touchdown and a passing touchdown (+170), Leonard Fournette AGAIN accumulating over 100 yards without a touchdown (+130) even though the Jaguars won, the Eagles only putting 10 points on the board against the Cowboys (+170 for both to score 20) and Matt Ryan's injury crushing the possibility of the Falcons scoring 25 with the Rams (+170). We're back at it this week to see what we can get done.
If you're looking for advice on spread bets or totals, check out Chris Liss' Beating the Book article or our Staff Picks. There are four unanimous picks from our staff, plus three of their best bets coming in other games.
Saquon Barkley 100+ Rushing Yards & 1+ TDs (+250)
The Giants are 6.5-point underdogs at Detroit, with a 49.5-point total that's the third-highest on the day, trailing only the 51.5 points for Raiders vs. Texans and the 53.0 for Seahawks vs. Falcons. Barkley hasn't had his explosive game since returning from injury, but he has a great opportunity Sunday against a Lions defense that has already allowed seven rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns to running backs, not to mention 311 rushing yards in the past two games, which came against the Packers and Vikings. Barkley's odds for a touchdown are -165, while his rushing prop is set at 78.5 (-112 on both sides), so we have some risk that he racks up the yards through the air and not the ground. Nevertheless, we're paid well if he can do it on the ground, and while his fantasy points prop total is 17.5 (basically 115 total yards and a touchdown, not including any receptions), again, we have to remember that this bet relies on his rushing yards more than anything else.
Titans and Buccaneers to both score 20 points (+126)
The Titans' passing game comes with an upgrade now that Ryan Tannehill is under center instead of Marcus Mariota, and while I don't want to overstate Tannehill's value (I don't think he's a good quarterback), the Buccaneers' defense has been so bad that the Titans should be able to put points on the board, particularly through the air. Meanwhile, the Bucs' offense can put up loads of points desmpite all of Jameis Winston's turnovers, and with this game expected to be close (Tennessee is a 2.5-point favorite) with a decent total of 45.5, getting both teams to 20 is worth more than the payoff that they split the difference on the total, which pays only -110.
Kenny Stills anytime touchdown and Texans win (+290)
The Raiders have really struggled against wide receivers this season, allowing at least one touchdown to the position in every game, including two in each of their past two. That doesn't mean that Stills is definitely heading for one, especially since DeAndre Hopkins is -165 for an anytime touchdown versus Stills' +200, but with Stills taking on a much bigger role in light of Will Fuller's injury absence, he could make for a solid payday if he can get on the end of a long Deshaun Watson pass. You could play it a bit "safer" with a Hopkins anytime touchdown and a Texans win for +110, but Stills is a darling of the fantasy community this week, with high expectations he'll be able to take advantage of a poor Raiders secondary.
Rams -3.5, Saints -3.5 and Patriots -3.5 parlay (+128)
A quick reminder that the point of this column is to provide different ways to bet on the NFL for entertainment purposes, not provide long-term strategies for maximizing ROI. That always needs to be said before talking about a parlay because anyone who bets consistently will tell you that parlays are dumb because why bet on something that requires multiple events to all go right for you to make money as opposed to only focusing on single outcomes? Then again, they also admit they can be fun because you get to root for long-shot outcomes that can pay really well. Or, you go a cheap route like this one and take three of the four biggest favorites on the slate, all of whom are favored by double digits, and then reduce their spreads to 3.5. A three-team moneyline parlay of the Rams (-650), Saints (-600) and Patriots (-500) comes out to -162, but making each team cover by just more than a field goal, as opposed to their respective spreads of 11.0, 12.5 and 11.0, provides a decently level payout. Adding in the Steelers moneyline (-750) on a four-way parlay brings it to -120, while putting them into the -3.5-point parlay moves it to +192 after combining the Steelers -400, Saints (-320), Rams (-310) and Patriots (-290).
