This article is part of our IDP Analysis series.
Having a cheat sheet makes draft day easier, but there are definitely times when we have players listed in nearly identical spots on our draft boards. Then, when it's time to make the actual pick, we look at our list and have second thoughts. Been there? I thought so — I've been there plenty as well. To try and lower some draft-day stress, this will be part one of a two-part series in which we'll use projected win totals to help break ties in player evaluation on draft day.
This week, we'll look at both the defensive backs and pass rushers. Typically, teams that are among the best in the league are likely to either be playing with many leads and possibly in their share of shootouts. When these situations occur, the defensive backs certainly will have extra opportunities to pile up tackles while also increasing probability for interceptions. Similarly, when opponents are forced to go pass-heavy, this increases opportunities to rush the passer. So, let's look at the teams that Vegas has projected as the best in the league.
It'll come as no surprise to anyone that the Patriots are favored to win the most games (11) in the league in 2019. Although their current roster configuration is starting to look like that of a team that's about to lean on the run, head coach Bill Belichick has a keen understanding of pushing the pace and running a lot of plays to wear down the defense. So regardless of
Having a cheat sheet makes draft day easier, but there are definitely times when we have players listed in nearly identical spots on our draft boards. Then, when it's time to make the actual pick, we look at our list and have second thoughts. Been there? I thought so — I've been there plenty as well. To try and lower some draft-day stress, this will be part one of a two-part series in which we'll use projected win totals to help break ties in player evaluation on draft day.
This week, we'll look at both the defensive backs and pass rushers. Typically, teams that are among the best in the league are likely to either be playing with many leads and possibly in their share of shootouts. When these situations occur, the defensive backs certainly will have extra opportunities to pile up tackles while also increasing probability for interceptions. Similarly, when opponents are forced to go pass-heavy, this increases opportunities to rush the passer. So, let's look at the teams that Vegas has projected as the best in the league.
It'll come as no surprise to anyone that the Patriots are favored to win the most games (11) in the league in 2019. Although their current roster configuration is starting to look like that of a team that's about to lean on the run, head coach Bill Belichick has a keen understanding of pushing the pace and running a lot of plays to wear down the defense. So regardless of how they score points on offense, the following players could see a slight bump in production, based on the potential for positive game script.
Pass rushers: Michael Bennett, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Kyle Van Noy and Deatrich Wise.
Defensive backs: Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty.
One of three teams that are projected at 10.5 wins are the Chiefs, and with their potential to have another season of insane offensive production, they may have quite a few games in which their IDPs could blow up against the pass. Even though they project to be a tick behind the Patriots in wins, the method in which they could be winning games could give them the best tiebreaker of the teams in this group.
Pass rushers: Chris Jones, Frank Clark, Alex Okafor and Damien Wilson.
Defensive backs: Kendall Fuller, Charvarius Ward, Bashaud Breeland, Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorensen.
Also coming in at a projected win total of 10.5 is the Rams, and if their offense can continue to roll as it did before losing Cooper Kupp to a knee injury halfway through the 2018 season, they could also win in a number of blowouts. That's said, it's unlikely they have the firepower of the Chiefs or the will to push the pace like the Patriots, but this is another team in which it may be wise to bump up their passing-game defenders on draft day.
Pass rushers: Aaron Donald (as if he needed any help!), Michael Brockers, Samson Ebukam, Dante Fowler Jr. and Clay Matthews.
Defensive backs: Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, Nickell Robey-Coleman, Eric Weddle and John Johnson
The last of our teams that are predicted to exceed 10 wins is the Saints. Sure, this isn't the explosive offensive dynamo that we saw a number of years ago, but this is clearly one of the better offenses in the league. In addition to their defenders being able to take advantage of strong game scripts, when they're playing at home, they also can feed off that adrenaline and have some big defensive performances.
Pass rushers: Cameron Jordan, Marcus Davenport and Trey Hendrickson.
Defensive backs: Marshon Lattimore, Eli Apple, Ken Crawley, Marcus Williams and Vonn Bell.
A pair of teams have their 2019 projected win total at exactly 10 — the first of those teams is the Colts, and after catching fire in the second half of last season, there's no reason to argue with the Vegas win total. Assuming Andrew Luck is ready for the season after dealing with a calf injury this preseason, this should be one of the most efficient and effective offenses in the league. Also, they improved drastically on defense last year (from what they had been in the past), and the combination of a great offense and emerging defense should help them play with plenty of leads late in the game, which in turn should help the IDPs pad their stats.
Pass rushers: Jabaal Sheard, Justin Houston, Kemoko Turay and Darius Leonard.
Defensive backs: Kenny Moore, Pierre Desir, Quincy Wilson, Malik Hooker and Matthias Farley.
Rounding out our projected double-digit team win group is the Eagles. Hopefully, we'll get a full and healthy season from Carson Wentz, and if that's the case, this offense is loaded — DeSean Jackson was added as a deep threat, Dallas Goedert is entering his second year and should become a bigger part of the offense, and they added Miles Sanders as an explosive option at running back. Simply said, this is yet another offense that could help them get out to more than their share of big leads while the defense is able to go into attack mode to pile up fantasy numbers.
Pass rushers: Brandon Graham, Derek Barnett, Fletcher Cox and Nigel Bradham.
Defensive backs: Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills (injured), Sidney Jones, Malcolm Jenkins and Andrew Sendejo.
