Job Battles: Moment of Zenn

Runnning backs

Tevin Coleman (groin) vs. Brian Hill, ATL

Perhaps Coleman's injury from Sunday's game against Carolina will settle this matter before Week 17, but in the meantime it looks like it will be a perfectly even split between Coleman and Hill as it was between Coleman and Ito Smith before the latter's season-ending injury.

Hill ran for 115 yards on eight carries Sunday, which might have earned him a bigger workload regardless of Coleman's condition. Hill doesn't really project as more than a backup in the NFL, but he certainly passed Sunday's test and otherwise has various promising traits in his prospect profile. He ran for 4,287 yards (5.5 YPC) and 35 touchdowns in 37 career games at Wyoming, and his workout metrics are pretty decent for a 219-pound back (4.54-second 40, 125-inch broad jump, 7.03-second three-cone drill). I think Hill should be owned in 12-team leagues still running through Week 17, and dynasty leaguers should pick him up just in case Coleman walks in free agency.

Kenyan Drake vs. Kalen Ballage, MIA

Coach Adam Gase was expected to make Ballage the feature back against Jacksonville on Sunday, but the rookie fourth-round pick disappointed in his promoted role, finishing with just four attempts for 10 yards while catching two passes for 39 yards on four targets. Aside from his 75-yard touchdown in Week 15, that leaves Ballage with a season total of 69 yards on 23 carries. I said my piece previously on Ballage as a prospect:

As I mentioned previously, there is no basis for which Gase makes any of his personnel decisions. None. It's whim and nothing more, and you can't quantify or anticipate whim. So although I would say Drake is the very obviously better player between the two, Gase either rejects the premise or isn't curious enough to investigate the matter in the first place. It may be immaterial to him, I don't know.

But you should know that Ballage is more theory than practice as a prospect, more potential than results. In his carries this year aside from the 75-yard touchdown, Ballage has just 59 yards on 19 attempts. Going into his sophomore year at Arizona State, the coaches tried to split his time at defensive end. That's enough of a red flag for me, but then consider the fact that Ballage was never the best running back on his own team. That distinction would go to DeMario Richard, who I'm assuming you've never had reason to hear of. Richard finished his Arizona State career with 3,202 yards (4.9 YPC) rushing and 662 yards receiving in four years. Ballage's four years yielded 1,984 yards (4.4 YPC) and 27 touchdowns rushing, with 82 receptions for 684 yards.

I already said this once on Twitter, but Ballage is basically if you took Derrick Henry, gave him worse size-adjusted speed, and then made him a mediocre Pac-12 back instead of the best player in the SEC. Ballage's disappointing production was not for lack of opportunity. Ballage was a blue chip recruit at Arizona State, but he was overshadowed by Richard and D.J. Foster anyway. Aside from a 10-game stretch in 2015 where he ran for 653 yards and four touchdowns at 5.2 yards per carry, Ballage otherwise averaged 4.1 yards per carry in his other 36 games. Brutal.

For those still alive in the fantasy playoffs or consolation brackets, though, Ballage is still a player who probably needs to be picked up, just in case Gase decides to feed him against Jacksonville. I just would caution people to presume a low floor, both because I bet Ballage fizzles out in the longer term, and because the whims of Gase could just as easily work against him with no notice whatsoever.

One dud game for Ballage doesn't prove me right, but I still think I'm right about this. Drake, meanwhile, is a player whose NFL credentials are rather indisputable at this point, at least if you're not Gase. Drake was of course not much more successful against the Jaguars, but his six carries for 23 yards and four catches for 31 yards on five targets were more than Ballage could pull off. Ballage should stay involved in Week 17 all the same, but Drake deserves to be the starter and workhorse against Buffalo.

Zach Zenner vs. LeGarrette Blount, DET

Zenner continues to make a strong case for more work, and with Kerryon Johnson (knee) done for the year there should be room for him to make his case further yet in Week 17 against the Packers. It's in Green Bay and is therefore a brutal matchup for the despairing Lions, but it's no worse of a matchup than Buffalo and Minnesota in the two weeks prior, against whom Zenner still managed to run for 90 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries between the two.

Blount didn't fare so well in the same two games, turning his 18 carries into 38 yards. Zenner is an unrestricted free agent this offseason and I'd try to pick him up if still possible in dynasty formats. As I said previously:

Real Draft Twitter people have known this for years, but it took the Lions until the second half of Sunday's game against Arizona to realize that Zenner is better than Blount.

Zenner is a favorite of Draft Twitter truthers because the guy was super productive at South Dakota State, and his workout metrics at the combine were explosive. Zenner hasn't been given a serious NFL opportunity to this point, but he's done well with the limited work he's received. Zenner's only serious audition was in 2016, when he ran for 334 yards and four touchdowns on 88 carries (3.8 YPC) while turning 23 targets into 18 receptions for 196 yards. He started four games that year, against the Rams, Washington, Dallas, and Green Bay. In those games he ran for 223 yards (4.1 YPC) and four touchdowns, adding eight receptions for 85 yards on 12 targets.

Those numbers aren't great or anything, but three of those defenses were among the league's best in terms of yards allowed per carry, and Zenner made the most of the situation considering the Lions finished that year with the third-fewest rushing yards in the league. Zenner's 4.6 speed doesn't stand out, but at the 2015 combine he demonstrated his underrated explosiveness with a 41-inch vertical and 121-inch broad jump at 223 pounds.

Keith Ford vs. LeSean McCoy, BUF

McCoy has struggled with health and focus both while dealing with his off-field issue, and his frustrations culminated in a censuring from coach Sean McDermott before Sunday's loss to New England due to some unspecified transgression. The game itself went no better as McCoy ran for just nine yards on six carries and three catches for 10 yards on three targets. It's unclear whether he'll be expected to contribute in the final week.

Ford, meanwhile, stepped up as the lead runner while Marcus Murphy and Chris Ivory missed the game with injury. Ford is an undrafted rookie out of Texas A&M, where he transferred to from Oklahoma, where he was among the blue chip recruits in his class. Ford was a disappointment in college, and he never cashed in on his recruiting promise as he ran for just 1,743 yards (4.9 YPC) and 24 touchdowns in 39 career games, catching 30 passes for 305 yards and a touchdown otherwise. Ford showed adequate athletic metrics at his pro day, however, running a 4.54-second 40-yard dash at 219 pounds while posting a 39-inch vertical and 126-inch broad jump.

Still, Ford's basically a non-entity by my prospect standards, and while he's worth owning in Week 17 redraft leagues and maybe even dynasty fliers, I think his chances of remaining ahead of McCoy or anyone in particular for the long haul basically don't exist. Still, it must be noted that he's done somewhat well for himself in the last two weeks, totaling 79 yards on 21 carries. I bet he fades quickly, though.

Darren Sproles vs. Wendell Smallwood, PHI

The Eagles are shockingly in position to compete for a playoff berth if they defeat Washington on Sunday, and after his big game against the Texans the Eagles might correlate their chances of success with usage for Sproles specifically. Josh Adams should remain the primary runner between the tackles, but when there's a passing situation Sproles should take a near monopoly over Smallwood.

Smallwood appeared to be generating some momentum in Week 15, when he helped lead the Eagles to their upset of the Rams by running for 48 yards and two touchdowns on 10 carries, but against the Texans he was more limited. Smallwood still saw four targets, but only a three-yard carry otherwise as Sproles took nine carries for 32 yards and three catches for 76 yards and a touchdown on six targets. Perhaps Sproles doesn't have much in the tank but the Eagles will have nothing to save him for if they lose this one. Smallwood probably needs to take a back seat.

Wide receivers

DeAndre Carter vs. Keke Coutee vs. Vyncint Smith, HOU

Demaryius Thomas (Achilles) is done for a long time, and who knows what's going on with Coutee's hamstring otherwise. Coutee showed this year what he can do, and if he's healthy he's the team's second-best receiver and the lead receiver in the slot. That much we know.

But if Coutee can't get on the field for Week 17, Carter becomes interesting for the second week in a row after finishing Week 16's loss against Philadelphia with six passes for 61 yards on seven targets. Over the last four weeks Carter has subtly been quite decent, turning 17 targets into 15 catches for 148 yards. Carter (5-foot-9, 184 pounds) is off the mainstream prospect radar, but his workout metrics were great when he came out of Sacramento State in 2015, running a 4.44-second 40-yard dash to go with a 38.5-inch vertical, 126-inch broad jump, and preposterous agility score of 10.44.

The rookie Smith might need to step up regardless of Coutee's health, because Carter is unlikely to contribute too many snaps at outside receiver, where Smith specializes. Smith is a bit of an unknown prospect as well, but like Carter he has promising tools to work with despite his obscurity. He played at Limestone, which is apparently both a school and one with a football team. He in any case stands around 6-foot-2, 197 pounds and logged a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at his pro day, adding a 39.5-inch vertical and 130-inch broad jump. Smith has good reach and top-notch linear explosiveness, and he didn't hurt himself any by snagging his one target for a 35-yard touchdown against the Eagles.

Tight ends

Jason Croom vs. Charles Clay, BUF

Here's another interesting one for Week 17 and dynasty leagues alike. Clay is on the way out in Buffalo after seeing a healthy scratch against the Patriots on Sunday, especially after Croom thrived in his absence, snagging four of six targets for 55 yards. His year-long numbers are mediocre but acceptable enough, turning 31 targets into 20 receptions (66.7 percent catch rate) for 227 yards and a touchdown.

Croom is a total unknown as a prospect after a disappointing career at Tennessee, but he was a top recruit there and played wide receiver rather than tight end. He has some athletic tools to work with, and his overall comparison is probably Ricky Seals-Jones as a fellow former blue chip bust who moved to tight end. He's spent the past three years learning the position, and that fact makes his 2018 returns look better. At 6-foot-4, 252 pounds Croom ran a 4.69-second 40-yard dash at his pro day, otherwise adding a 34-inch vertical, and 120-inch broad jump.