This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 15:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FALCONS | Cardinals | 33.10% | 380 | 79.17 | 6.90 |
| Texans | JETS | 12.20% | 240 | 70.59 | 3.59 |
| JAGUARS | Redskins | 12.10% | 300 | 75.00 | 3.03 |
| RAVENS | Buccaneers | 11.70% | 360 | 78.26 | 2.54 |
| RAMS | Eagles | 9.00% | 425 | 80.95 | 1.71 |
| VIKINGS | Dolphins | 6.10% | 290 | 74.36 | 1.56 |
| Seahawks | 49ERS | 5.00% | 230 | 69.70 | 1.52 |
| BRONCOS | Browns | 2.50% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.98 |
| BEARS | Packers | 2.20% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.67 |
| BENGALS | Raiders | 1.10% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.44 |
| Saints | PANTHERS | 0.80% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.24 |
| BILLS | Lions | 0.70% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.30 |
| CHIEFS | Chargers | 0.50% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.18 |
| GIANTS | Titans | 0.40% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.17 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Keep in mind the percentage-owned numbers get very noisy this time of year, so you must look at your particular pools to see who has what teams available and do your own estimates.
My Picks
1. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams looked terrible in Chicago last week, but now they get the Eagles who have arguably the league's worst secondary at home. The Eagles are still in the wild card race, believe it or not, but they've blown every chance they've gotten this year. I give the Rams an 82 percent
Let's take a look at Week 15:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FALCONS | Cardinals | 33.10% | 380 | 79.17 | 6.90 |
| Texans | JETS | 12.20% | 240 | 70.59 | 3.59 |
| JAGUARS | Redskins | 12.10% | 300 | 75.00 | 3.03 |
| RAVENS | Buccaneers | 11.70% | 360 | 78.26 | 2.54 |
| RAMS | Eagles | 9.00% | 425 | 80.95 | 1.71 |
| VIKINGS | Dolphins | 6.10% | 290 | 74.36 | 1.56 |
| Seahawks | 49ERS | 5.00% | 230 | 69.70 | 1.52 |
| BRONCOS | Browns | 2.50% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.98 |
| BEARS | Packers | 2.20% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.67 |
| BENGALS | Raiders | 1.10% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.44 |
| Saints | PANTHERS | 0.80% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.24 |
| BILLS | Lions | 0.70% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.30 |
| CHIEFS | Chargers | 0.50% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.18 |
| GIANTS | Titans | 0.40% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.17 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Keep in mind the percentage-owned numbers get very noisy this time of year, so you must look at your particular pools to see who has what teams available and do your own estimates.
My Picks
1. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams looked terrible in Chicago last week, but now they get the Eagles who have arguably the league's worst secondary at home. The Eagles are still in the wild card race, believe it or not, but they've blown every chance they've gotten this year. I give the Rams an 82 percent chance to win this game.
2. Baltimore Ravens
I might rank the Falcons ahead of them but for the ownership numbers, so check who has what teams left in your pool. The Ravens should handle the Bucs at home, but the Bucs are actually the better passing team with much better weapons on the outside. I give the Ravens a 78 percent chance to win this game.
3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are the top-owned team this week, and I expect them to bounce back at home against a bad Cardinals squad. I give them a 79 percent chance to win this game.
4. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings offense has looked awful the last two weeks, but both were road games in tough venues. Now they're at home against a beatable Dolphins defense. I give the Vikings a 76 percent chance to win this game.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are bad, but the Redskins are worse, and sometimes that's the best you can do. Jacksonville is also at home. I give them a 73 percent chance to win this game.
6. Chicago Bears
The Bears crushed the Rams at home last week, and I doubt there will be a letdown against their biggest division rival. The Packers always have a puncher's chance with Aaron Rodgers, but he didn't even light up the Falcons last week, so perhaps the problems run deeper than just Mike McCarthy. I give the Bears a 70 percent chance to win this game.
7. Houston Texans
The Texans lost to the Colts, and now they get a relatively easy road game in New York. Just keep in mind that Houston hasn't beaten anyone especially good, and weather could be a factor. I give the Texans a 69 percent chance to win this game.
8. New Orleans Saints
They might be the best team in the league, but the offense isn't totally in sync, and the Panthers have a lot of young, explosive players, know the Saints well and are playing at home. I give the Saints a 68 percent chance to win this game.
9. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks blew them out a couple weeks ago in Seattle, but their homefield advantage there is huge, and they're coming off a short week, having played Monday night. The 49ers don't seem to have packed it in, either. I give the Seahawks a 66 percent chance to this game.
10. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are only three-point favorites, but if none of the top-nine choices were available, I'd use them. The Cowboys just essentially locked up the division, played an entire overtime and could be due for a letdown. I give the Colts a 61 percent chance to win this game.
11. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals finally showed a pulse for the first time in more than a month, getting controlled play from Jeff Driskel and good production from Joe Mixon and the defense. The Raiders, coming off a big comeback win against the Steelers, have to travel across the country for an early-body-clock game too. I give the Bengals a 60 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Kansas City Chiefs - The Chargers are better defensively and can nearly match them on offense too.
Denver Broncos - The Browns are a tough out now that Baker Mayfield has a real offensive play caller.
Buffalo Bills - The Lions are bad, but the Bills still have no consistency on offense.
New York Giants - The Titans are a solid league-average team, and the Giants are at best their equals.
