This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 12:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Raiders | 31.60% | 550 | 84.62 | 4.86 |
| COWBOYS | Redskins | 20.60% | 320 | 76.19 | 4.90 |
| COLTS | Dolphins | 17.10% | 380 | 79.17 | 3.56 |
| SAINTS | Falcons | 8.70% | 650 | 86.67 | 1.16 |
| CHARGERS | Cardinals | 8.50% | 625 | 86.21 | 1.17 |
| Patriots | JETS | 6.40% | 410 | 80.39 | 1.25 |
| EAGLES | Giants | 2.80% | 235 | 70.15 | 0.84 |
| TEXANS | Titans | 1.10% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.32 |
| BENGALS | Browns | 0.70% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.27 |
| BUCCANEERS | 49ers | 0.60% | 177.5 | 63.96 | 0.22 |
| Jaguars | BILLS | 0.50% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.19 |
| Bears | LIONS | 0.40% | 185 | 64.91 | 0.14 |
| Steelers | BRONCOS | 0.40% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.16 |
| PANTHERS | Seahawks | 0.20% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.08 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is a much easier week with plenty of good teams from which to choose, but make sure you check your fellow owners' histories to estimate the percentage of usage for each team.
My Picks
1. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens aren't great, but I
Let's take a look at Week 12:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Raiders | 31.60% | 550 | 84.62 | 4.86 |
| COWBOYS | Redskins | 20.60% | 320 | 76.19 | 4.90 |
| COLTS | Dolphins | 17.10% | 380 | 79.17 | 3.56 |
| SAINTS | Falcons | 8.70% | 650 | 86.67 | 1.16 |
| CHARGERS | Cardinals | 8.50% | 625 | 86.21 | 1.17 |
| Patriots | JETS | 6.40% | 410 | 80.39 | 1.25 |
| EAGLES | Giants | 2.80% | 235 | 70.15 | 0.84 |
| TEXANS | Titans | 1.10% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.32 |
| BENGALS | Browns | 0.70% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.27 |
| BUCCANEERS | 49ers | 0.60% | 177.5 | 63.96 | 0.22 |
| Jaguars | BILLS | 0.50% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.19 |
| Bears | LIONS | 0.40% | 185 | 64.91 | 0.14 |
| Steelers | BRONCOS | 0.40% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.16 |
| PANTHERS | Seahawks | 0.20% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.08 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is a much easier week with plenty of good teams from which to choose, but make sure you check your fellow owners' histories to estimate the percentage of usage for each team.
My Picks
1. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens aren't great, but I like them at home against a doormat they can bully on both sides of the ball. I give the Ravens an 87 percent chance to win this game.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
They blew it last week, but the Cardinals are a softer opponent, and the Chargers are so stout on both sides of the ball. I give the Chargers an 86 percent chance to win this game.
3. New England Patriots
The Patriots are on the road against a division rival, but they're coming off the bye and face a Jets team that's weak on offense and defense. I give the Patriots an 85 percent chance to win this game.
4. New Orleans Saints
I wrongly faded them last week, and I'm doing it again (relative to the Vegas number) as the Falcons know them well and have a puncher's chance to keep up. Still, the Saints are much better defensively and have been so tough at home. I give them an 85 percent chance to win this game.
5. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are rolling, and the Dolphins are bad, especially on the road, but Ryan Tannehill is an upgrade over Brock Osweiler. I give the Colts an 80 percent chance to win this game.
6. Dallas Cowboys
Colt McCoy is a downgrade from Alex Smith, and the Cowboys are strong on both sides of the line of scrimmage, but the Redskins defense is good, and I expect this to be a slugfest. I give the Cowboys a 74 percent chance to win this game.
7. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles were awful last week in New Orleans, and the Giants offensive line has improved of late. Still, it's Eli Manning against a tough front seven in possibly adverse weather conditions. I give the Eagles a 67 percent chance to win this game.
8. Houston Texans
If Marcus Mariota plays, this game is a "notable omission" for me, but if it's Blaine Gabbert, bump the Texans up to No. 6. I'll split the difference and make them 66 percent likely to win this game.
9. Chicago Bears
This assumes Mitchell Trubisky can suit up. If not, move them to "notable omission" territory too. The Bears defense is good, and the Lions are likely without Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones. I give the Bears (with Trubisky) a 66 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Pittsburgh Steelers - They nearly lost a war on the road against a tough defense last week, and now they have to go out west for a late game and do it all over again.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Their defense can't stop anyone, and their offense turns it over four times a game.
Carolina Panthers - They get the Seahawks on an early east coast game, but Seattle is tough, and the Panthers are merely above average.
Jacksonville Jaguars - The Bills defense is good, and this looks like a low-scoring slugfest in a possible cold-weather game.
Cincinnati Bengals - They're not good on either side of the ball, and the Browns are rested off the bye.
Minnesota Vikings - They can't run block or pass protect very well, and Aaron Rodgers should move the ball against them.
