This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 11:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAINTS | Eagles | 35.80% | 360 | 78.26 | 7.78 |
| Steelers | JAGUARS | 17.40% | 230 | 69.70 | 5.27 |
| CHARGERS | Broncos | 14.10% | 300 | 75.00 | 3.53 |
| CARDINALS | Raiders | 10.60% | 195 | 66.10 | 3.59 |
| Panthers | LIONS | 7.20% | 190 | 65.52 | 2.48 |
| FALCONS | Cowboys | 5.00% | 155 | 60.78 | 1.96 |
| RAVENS | Bengals | 4.10% | 195 | 66.10 | 1.39 |
| SEAHAWKS | Packers | 1.20% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.52 |
| Texans | REDSKINS | 1.00% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.43 |
| GIANTS | Buccaneers | 0.70% | 115 | 53.49 | 0.33 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is a tough week. Only the Saints are more than 75-percent favorites, and they play the defending Super Bowl champs who are desperate to stay in contention. The Chargers are a decent pivot, but few people have them available and after that, it's a below-70-percent wasteland.
My Picks
1. Los Angeles Chargers
I'm loath ever to make the Chargers my top pick, but I trust their defense against Case Keenum outside of Denver. I wish the Chargers had more of a home field advantage, but I give them a 76 percent chance to win this game.
2. Arizona Cardinals
As much as I'm loath to take the Chargers, this is even worse. But this is a home game against a team that's bad on both sides of
Let's take a look at Week 11:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAINTS | Eagles | 35.80% | 360 | 78.26 | 7.78 |
| Steelers | JAGUARS | 17.40% | 230 | 69.70 | 5.27 |
| CHARGERS | Broncos | 14.10% | 300 | 75.00 | 3.53 |
| CARDINALS | Raiders | 10.60% | 195 | 66.10 | 3.59 |
| Panthers | LIONS | 7.20% | 190 | 65.52 | 2.48 |
| FALCONS | Cowboys | 5.00% | 155 | 60.78 | 1.96 |
| RAVENS | Bengals | 4.10% | 195 | 66.10 | 1.39 |
| SEAHAWKS | Packers | 1.20% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.52 |
| Texans | REDSKINS | 1.00% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.43 |
| GIANTS | Buccaneers | 0.70% | 115 | 53.49 | 0.33 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is a tough week. Only the Saints are more than 75-percent favorites, and they play the defending Super Bowl champs who are desperate to stay in contention. The Chargers are a decent pivot, but few people have them available and after that, it's a below-70-percent wasteland.
My Picks
1. Los Angeles Chargers
I'm loath ever to make the Chargers my top pick, but I trust their defense against Case Keenum outside of Denver. I wish the Chargers had more of a home field advantage, but I give them a 76 percent chance to win this game.
2. Arizona Cardinals
As much as I'm loath to take the Chargers, this is even worse. But this is a home game against a team that's bad on both sides of the ball and might have packed it in. The Cardinals defense played well in Kansas City last week, and Byron Leftwich has the offense back in this millennium. I give the Cardinals a 72 percent chance to win this game.
3. New Orleans Saints
I might bump them up if they weren't available to other teams in your pool - Officefootballpools has them at 36 percent owned - but that could be lower or higher depending on your situation. If it's much lower, they're probably a better bet than the Cardinals, but I have bad feeling about this matchup against an Eagles team with its back to the wall. I give the Saints a 72 percent chance to win this game.
4. Baltimore Ravens
As I write this, I have no idea who their quarterback will be, but I know they're at home, have a good defense and face a toothless Bengals team without A.J. Green that can't stop anyone. I give the Ravens a 70 percent chance to win this game.
5. Atlanta Falcons
The Cowboys might be the better team on a neutral field, but the Falcons are much better at home, and I like the setup with the Cowboys coming off a big win and the Falcons an embarrassing loss. I give the Falcons a 65 percent chance to win this game.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
I hate this spot for the red-hot Steelers, a road game against an ostensibly good defense. But this is the hand we've been dealt this week. I give the Steelers a 65 percent chance to win this game.
7. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are better than the Lions, but a road game against a desperate animal with a functional QB and decent weapons is less than ideal. I give the Panthers a 63 percent chance to win this game.
8. Los Angeles Rams
Not that you have them available, and if you did, it's probably not the place to use them. But they're at home and facing an average defense. I give the Rams a 60 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Houston Texans - The Redskins decimated offensive line should help, but this is a road game against a stout front seven and a QB who doesn't turn the ball over.
Seattle Seahawks - The Packers aren't great this year, and the Seahawks are at home, but Seattle's defense isn't stout enough to use here against Aaron Rodgers.
