This article is part of our Survivor series.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEELERS | Browns | 30.50% | 375 | 78.95 | 6.42 |
| Patriots | BILLS | 18.40% | 1100 | 91.67 | 1.53 |
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 15.70% | 450 | 81.82 | 2.85 |
| BEARS | Jets | 14.60% | 285 | 74.03 | 3.79 |
| TEXANS | Dolphins | 12.40% | 320 | 76.19 | 2.95 |
| BENGALS | Buccaneers | 2.80% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.92 |
| RAMS | Packers | 2.40% | 380 | 79.17 | 0.50 |
| Colts | RAIDERS | 0.90% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.37 |
| Eagles | Jaguars*** | 0.70% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.28 |
| Redskins | GIANTS | 0.40% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.19 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
This is the easy call - even on the road. The Bills defense is decent, but the offense is one of the worst in recent memory. I give the Patriots a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos are the one defense to slow down both the Chiefs and Rams, but Case Keenum is too turnover prone, and this game is in Kansas City. I give the Chiefs a 79 percent chance to win this game.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Coming off the bye, the Steelers should handle the Browns at home, but they're the highest owned team (30.5%), so they clock in at No. 3 rather than No. 2. I give them a 79 percent chance
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEELERS | Browns | 30.50% | 375 | 78.95 | 6.42 |
| Patriots | BILLS | 18.40% | 1100 | 91.67 | 1.53 |
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 15.70% | 450 | 81.82 | 2.85 |
| BEARS | Jets | 14.60% | 285 | 74.03 | 3.79 |
| TEXANS | Dolphins | 12.40% | 320 | 76.19 | 2.95 |
| BENGALS | Buccaneers | 2.80% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.92 |
| RAMS | Packers | 2.40% | 380 | 79.17 | 0.50 |
| Colts | RAIDERS | 0.90% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.37 |
| Eagles | Jaguars*** | 0.70% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.28 |
| Redskins | GIANTS | 0.40% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.19 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
This is the easy call - even on the road. The Bills defense is decent, but the offense is one of the worst in recent memory. I give the Patriots a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos are the one defense to slow down both the Chiefs and Rams, but Case Keenum is too turnover prone, and this game is in Kansas City. I give the Chiefs a 79 percent chance to win this game.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Coming off the bye, the Steelers should handle the Browns at home, but they're the highest owned team (30.5%), so they clock in at No. 3 rather than No. 2. I give them a 79 percent chance to win this game.
4. Houston Texans
The Texans have lost at home to the Giants and Titans, but they appear to have figured things out defensively with both Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt playing at full capacity. Brock Osweiler has played surprisingly well for the Dolphins, but this is a tough matchup on a short week. I give the Texans a 76 percent chance to win this game.
5. Los Angeles Rams
Based on the Vegas odds, they should be higher, but I'd rather avoid Aaron Rodgers should the game remain close in the fourth quarter. I give the Rams a 75 percent chance to win this game.
6. Chicago Bears
I don't trust the Bears, but Sam Darnold should be overmatched on the road against that defense, and the Jets defense is nothing special. I give the Bears a 73 percent chance to win this game.
7. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals looked terrible Sunday night, but should bounce back at home against a bad Tampa defense and turnover-prone offense. I give Cincinnati a 69 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Indianapolis Colts: - It might be tempting to use up the Colts while you have the chance against a doormat like the Raiders, but don't do it. They're not good enough to trust in a west coast road game.
