This article is part of our Dynasty Strategy series.
Last week's article singled out A.J. Brown as one of dynasty's most overpriced prospect while identifying Bryan Edwards as a superior value, but this week's entry will look at the running back position. Like Brown at receiver, this player is widely considered to be the top overall dynasty prospect.
That player is Cam Akers from Florida State. The top running back recruit from 2017 and apparently long prophesied as the heir to the sport itself, Akers' current reception is one of absolute, uncritical enthusiasm. This is widely considered an infallible prospect.
Akers certainly has a great abundance of talent, and as in the case of Brown I am basically quibbling over a few spots in the rankings. Akers is still very likely a top-five running back in his class for whatever worst-case scenario. Still, at the moment I think his price tag is too high relative to at least one other runner. Please don't circulate this article in FSU Twitter, enough people want me dead as it is.
Listed at 5-foot-11, 210 pounds with a low lean and strong burst, many might be tempted to compare Akers to the back he replaced, Dalvin Cook. Cook played at 5-foot-11, 213 pounds and, like Akers, was preceded by an extremely hyped reputation as a recruit. Just about every school wanted Akers. According to 247Sports his recruiting offers included all of Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma, Michigan, LSU, Miami, and plenty of other schools of top prestige. The difference is Cook's production was to a scale similar to that of his hype, whereas Akers remains more theory than practice 15 games into his career with the Seminoles.
That's not to call Akers an underachiever, it's just to say he might have been overestimated initially. Akers has 222 carries to this point at FSU, which yielded 1,183 yards (5.3 YPC) and seven touchdowns. He otherwise secured 23 of 28 targets for 154 yards. That rushing production is not the stuff of an elite runner – by Cook's 15th game he had 1,430 yards (6.5 YPC) and 13 touchdowns on the ground. That's what an elite runner does.
Even before we reached this arbitrary 15-game mark, there was cause for concern with Akers over his struggles to differentiate himself from hype-free veteran back Jacques Patrick, who's widely written off as an undraftable prospect. I happen to think Patrick might have a place in the NFL, but it would mostly be as a Darrel Williams type, and Derrius Guice had no trouble making clear his superiority to Williams when the two played at LSU. While Akers has 222 carries since last year with a rushing average of 5.3 YPC in that span, Patrick laid claim to 154 carries for 832 yards (5.4 YPC) and seven touchdowns. An Akers advocate who is a Patrick skeptic has an unresolved tension in their reasoning.
One potentially insightful box score from 2018 specifically is Florida State's season-opening loss to Virginia Tech, when Akers ran for 82 yards on 13 carries. That's 5.9 yards per carry against a tough defense. Not bad, right? It's a bit misleading, however. Akers ran for 85 yards on one play alone – a play where numerous larger defenders kept pace with him before he was eventually chased down just before the end zone. When you total minus-3 yards on 12 carries, that's an issue. And if Akers is the explosive athlete most hypothesized to this point, he doesn't get caught on that play. That play alone gave reason to suspect Akers isn't as athletic as everyone figured.
Akers' prospect hype is of a volume like not only the previously mentioned Cook, but even someone like Saquon Barkley. The calibration is off. Akers might be good, but there's no evidence that he's similar to those two. You know who looks better to me?
Jonathan Taylor from Wisconsin. For my evaluation standards, this is an easy one. I suspect the consensus will sign on within a couple months.
Taylor is not only bigger than Akers at 5-foot-11, 221 pounds, but I think there's a good chance he's actually faster than Akers. When Taylor gets past that third level it's a wrap. If you skip the film and go to the production, you start to wonder how it's even a question who's better here. Through 16 games Taylor is up to 2,375 yards (6.8 YPC) and 18 touchdowns. To be fair to Akers, he's much more proven as a pass catcher, and he's about five months younger than Taylor. But the age gap does nothing to negate the rushing production gap, and I don't see a defense angle for Akers regarding level of competition, either. It's concerning that Taylor was a total flop against Ohio State last year (15 carries for 41 yards), but not more so than Akers totaling 74 yards on 26 carries against Clemson and Florida.
I think to rank Akers ahead of Taylor would be to do so on pass-catching or ball security grounds. It's a fair argument if one sticks with it. Akers already appears developed as a receiver. There's nothing conclusive about a 28-target sample, but Akers posted a catch rate of 82.1 while averaging 5.5 yards per target. That kind of early-career reliability can only bode well for his further development in that area. The problem with citing this variable as the difference maker between the two is that Taylor is untested as a pass catcher rather than a demonstrably limited one. His eight receptions on 14 targets last year resulted in a 57.1 percent catch rate and 6.8 YPT, both of which are acceptable for the inconclusive sample.
It's only with regard to fumbling where Taylor is truly vulnerable. To be clear, it is a major issue, and one he needs to address. As a second-year sophomore I'm optimistic that he'll make strides here, but in the meantime it must be noted that he already has 10 career fumbles, including one in each of his two 2018 games. That leaves him with a career average of one fumble for every 35.8 touches from scrimmage. That cannot continue. Akers, by contrast, has four fumbles at once every 61.25 touches.
The reason I'm sticking with Taylor anyway is that I'm optimistic that he'll lower that fumble rate to something like once every 55 touches from here to the end of his junior season. He's very obviously a hard worker and he's shouldered a huge burden through his young career, and by any measure his overall utility is highly advanced for his experience level. When the yardage and touchdowns come as easily as they do for Taylor, in other words, you generally have a developmental margin of error to work with. Taylor is already dominant, and the fact that he has few areas to improve means the ones he needs to improve can receive disproportionate attention. Plus, you get a longer leash with ball security when you make enough plays. The NFL loved Sony Michel despite fumbling once every 45 touches in his first two seasons at Georgia, and Adrian Peterson fumbled once every 50 touches in his first three NFL seasons. After all, part of why Thomas fumbles so much is because he adds so much yardage after contact. If you measure his fumble frequency relative to expected points added, the perspective changes drastically.
I in any case see Taylor as a potential Jamal Lewis-type runner in the NFL – a player with truly unique natural running ability coupled with a rare blend of speed and power. That his work ethic seems sterling adds further encouragement. By contrast, I would at the moment have to project Akers as a more durable Lamar Miller type.
