This article is part of our Survivor series.
Occasionally, pot odds or not, you have to have an instinct for when something's off, and I missed it entirely. I actually felt the Saints, if anything, were more likely to win than Vegas did. While my 84-percent number was hardly a lock, unlike last year with the Patriots, I felt pretty relaxed about taking them. The worst part of it was they were the chalk, i.e., it can't even be justified as a risky, but necessary pot-odds gamble.
But it is what it is. The Ravens were in retrospect quite obviously the right call as the Packers were lucky to escape, the Steelers tied (which is a loss in most pools) and the Lions got crushed too. The Patriots and Vikings were also fairly easy wins.
Okay, for those of you still alive, let's take a look at Week 2:
Survivor rules and principles.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Cardinals | 39.70% | 825 | 89.19 | 4.29 |
| SAINTS | Browns | 22.70% | 390 | 79.59 | 4.63 |
| Chargers | BILLS | 18.40% | 300 | 75.00 | 4.60 |
Occasionally, pot odds or not, you have to have an instinct for when something's off, and I missed it entirely. I actually felt the Saints, if anything, were more likely to win than Vegas did. While my 84-percent number was hardly a lock, unlike last year with the Patriots, I felt pretty relaxed about taking them. The worst part of it was they were the chalk, i.e., it can't even be justified as a risky, but necessary pot-odds gamble.
But it is what it is. The Ravens were in retrospect quite obviously the right call as the Packers were lucky to escape, the Steelers tied (which is a loss in most pools) and the Lions got crushed too. The Patriots and Vikings were also fairly easy wins.
Okay, for those of you still alive, let's take a look at Week 2:
Survivor rules and principles.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Cardinals | 39.70% | 825 | 89.19 | 4.29 |
| SAINTS | Browns | 22.70% | 390 | 79.59 | 4.63 |
| Chargers | BILLS | 18.40% | 300 | 75.00 | 4.60 |
| REDSKINS | Colts | 4.80% | 225 | 69.23 | 1.48 |
| 49ERS | Lions | 3.20% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.97 |
| BRONCOS | Raiders | 2.40% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.73 |
| JETS | Dolphins | 1.40% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.56 |
| FALCONS | Panthers | 1.10% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.33 |
| Eagles | BUCCANEERS | 0.90% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.34 |
| Texans | TITANS | 0.80% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.35 |
| STEELERS | Chiefs | 0.80% | 220 | 68.75 | 0.25 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Rams are roughly 40 percent owned, but far and away the safest play at nearly 90 percent. The Saints are probably the No. 2 play (according to Vegas and the usage numbers) given their only slightly greater use than the Chargers and their nearly five percent edge over them in win probability.
My Picks
1. Los Angeles Rams
The chalk can be the wrong play when the usage is overwhelming or the winning percentage margin is close, but neither is the case here. The Rams are heavily used, but at nearly 90 percent to win, the relative safety outweighs the relative upside of the Saints, i.e., that 40 percent of your pool could go down with the Rams. The Cardinals looked terrible in a home game against Washington, and while no team is as bad as it seems on its worst day, it's a tall order to get it together against this Rams defense. I give the Rams a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. New Orleans Saints
They're a big risk given the state of their defense in Week 1, but they're at home, the offense is fine and Tyrod Taylor is less likely to gash them with big plays. Moreover, I don't think we want to move the needle that much after one bad game. I give the Saints an 80 percent chance to win this game.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
The Bills look like the worst team in the league, and for all their faults, the Chargers are still above average on both sides of the ball. But an early-body-clock road game, no Joey Bosa, and the Chargers being the Chargers put them just below the Saints here. I give the Chargers a 77 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
San Francisco 49ers - I expect them to win at home, but if Matthew Stafford gets in a rhythm this could be an up-for-grabs shootout with neither team being able to stop the other.
Washington Redskins - They played great in Arizona, but if the game's on the line, I could see Andrew Luck leading the Colts on a winning drive.
Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers are tough at home, but the Chiefs offense has a puncher's chance against anyone, anywhere.
