This article is part of our Best Ball Strategy series.
The theme of recent best ball developments for me is quite clear: wide receiver injuries. Rishard Matthews' return suddenly seems more far than near, Josh Doctson has a shoulder injury, Jordan Matthews just got cut, and now a handful of my rosters have as much as one third of their wide receiver personnel on the shelf.
Am I doomed? Probably. Will the receivers I pivot to from this point suffer from the same curse as the previously mentioned casualties? Almost certainly. But me must trudge ahead. Here are some of the wide receivers I'm going to target going forward. All ADPs cited are referencing MFL10s since July 1.
Tyler Lockett, SEA (148.2 ADP)
It's unfortunate timing that Doug Baldwin's knee injury will likely send Lockett's ADP upward just as I needed to turn to him as a fallback option, but there's a good chance he'll be worth it even at his increased price. With a still unspecified diagnosis and a seemingly fluctuating prognosis, Baldwin's murky status for Week 1 figures to raise Lockett from the 12th-13th round as high as the 9th or 10th in a lot of leagues.
Lockett's compound leg fracture from the end of the 2016 season may permanently rob him of some of his burst and speed, but even if he's some reduced version of himself, Lockett should easily provide value at his ADP up to this point. Even last year he averaged a respectable 7.8 yards per target, and he should be
The theme of recent best ball developments for me is quite clear: wide receiver injuries. Rishard Matthews' return suddenly seems more far than near, Josh Doctson has a shoulder injury, Jordan Matthews just got cut, and now a handful of my rosters have as much as one third of their wide receiver personnel on the shelf.
Am I doomed? Probably. Will the receivers I pivot to from this point suffer from the same curse as the previously mentioned casualties? Almost certainly. But me must trudge ahead. Here are some of the wide receivers I'm going to target going forward. All ADPs cited are referencing MFL10s since July 1.
Tyler Lockett, SEA (148.2 ADP)
It's unfortunate timing that Doug Baldwin's knee injury will likely send Lockett's ADP upward just as I needed to turn to him as a fallback option, but there's a good chance he'll be worth it even at his increased price. With a still unspecified diagnosis and a seemingly fluctuating prognosis, Baldwin's murky status for Week 1 figures to raise Lockett from the 12th-13th round as high as the 9th or 10th in a lot of leagues.
Lockett's compound leg fracture from the end of the 2016 season may permanently rob him of some of his burst and speed, but even if he's some reduced version of himself, Lockett should easily provide value at his ADP up to this point. Even last year he averaged a respectable 7.8 yards per target, and he should be more fully recovered at this point. If Lockett somehow does regain the explosiveness he possessed pre-injury, he would likely break into the top-24 at receiver. With Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson gone, Lockett seems a fine bet to approach triple-digit targets on the year, especially if Baldwin misses regular season time.
John Brown, BAL (217.52 ADP)
Were Brown's struggles in Arizona due solely to symptoms of his sickle cell trait condition? If so, did Arizona fail to treat the condition in some way and thus bear much or most of the blame? Will Baltimore get better results with their management approach?
These are questions I have no idea how to answer, and they were enough to scare me away from Brown before this point. If Brown is healthy he's a unique talent at receiver – his 2015 season where he caught 65 passes for 1,003 yards and seven touchdowns was one of the most impressive for a young receiver in recent memory – but his 5.4 YPT from last year has no place in any offense. Something has to give.
If early reports from Baltimore's training camp are any indication, it may have already happened, and things appear to be turning in Brown's favor. Be it improved health from better treatment or simply better luck in avoiding the nagging injuries that plagued him since 2015, Brown's trademark speed appears to be on display so far in Baltimore, in which case he could be a big deal in a Ravens offense that generally projects to be one of the most pass-happy in the league. Sports Illustrated's Jenny Vrentas described Brown as a favorite target of Joe Flacco's, while mentioning that Flacco is looking good in his own right.
Taywan Taylor, TEN (233.71 ADP)
With Rishard Matthews unavailable and basically no details regarding diagnosis, prognosis, or even how long the ailment has been an issue, I'm beginning to fear the worst. Matthews began camp on the PUP list, and until he's off of it I'm going to fear that he might miss the first six games of the year.
Corey Davis was expected to take the WR1 role in Tennessee this year, as the 2017 top-five pick is an excellent prospect whose disappointing rookie year was mostly just the result of nagging injury. But Matthews looked like a potential equal or something close to it, so if he's not on the field then it opens a substantial void in the pass catcher rotation. Davis and Delanie Walker can only pick up so much of that.
So now we turn to Taylor, Tennessee's third-round pick from last year and a plenty promising prospect in his own right despite generally lurking in Davis' shadow. If Davis was the best wide receiver in college football the four years prior to last, then Taylor was arguably the second best. He totaled 184 receptions for 3,197 yards and 34 touchdowns in his final 28 games at Western Kentucky, showing precise route running that plays well in the slot while still displaying the speed and body control to make big plays downfield. At 5-foot-11, 203 pounds with a 4.50-second 40 and 6.57-second three-cone drill, Taylor reminds me quite a bit of Stefon Diggs. I'll be looking to add him as a WR6/WR7 in best ball leagues pending news on Matthews.
Phillip Dorsett, NE (240.98 ADP)
Dorsett was so quiet last year following his trade to New England that it basically didn't add up. Sometimes there's a such thing as too-bad-to-be-true, and a former first-round pick wideout with just 18 targets in 15 games basically qualifies as such, especially since the Patriots traded a fine quarterback prospect (Jacoby Brissett) to secure Dorsett's rights.
As it turns out, Dorsett's invisibility in the offense might have been due to his late start on the playbook rather than anything he could control. His 4.33 speed kept him on the field, functioning as a decoy rather than a true target option in his 377 snaps. With a full offseason of work in the Bill Belichick offense, things may be turning for the better for Dorsett, especially with Jordan Matthews cut and Julian Edelman facing a four-game suspension. After all, Dorsett provided eight catches of 20-plus yards and four of 40-plus on just 59 targets in 2016. We know he's better than 18 targets in 377 snaps.
Particularly in the first month of the season, Chris Hogan and Kenny Britt are the only realistic wide receiver contributors that Dorsett will need to battle for targets. I don't think there's reliable evidence that either will come out ahead of Dorsett, though Hogan is nonetheless a heavy favorite due to multiple years of experience with the Patriots. With an ADP around 240, Dorsett is basically free right now, and that's rarely the case for a potential top-three receiver in a Tom Brady offense. I'll be adding as a WR6/WR7, much like Taylor.
