I use the Trust Tracker to publicly track the usefulness – or lack thereof – of the recommendations I made in my most recent Daily Games Cheat Sheet article.
Players are measured according to their p/K (points per thousand dollars spent). Depending on their p/K and the approximate number of points needed to win a 50-50 league that night, players are rated as either "helpful", "competitive", or "harmful".
On a normal night with a full slate of games (roughly 10 or more), you will need to score between 240 - 250 points to win a 50-50 league. On those nights, a p/K of 4.8 or higher is helpful, a p/K between 4.0-4.8 will keep a roster competitive, and a p/K below 3.5 is harmful.
Those are our baseline benchmarks, but it is important to adjust my analysis so that it reflects the night in question. While there is always variation from contest to contest, the scores required to win each one on any given night are usually very closely grouped, regardless of entry cost. This entry will review two articles' worth of recommendations. The first night reviewed is Wednesday, December 17, when the scores required to win most contests were between 255-265 (106% of the 240-250 range). As such, I will proportionally increase expectations for this analysis:
- Scores above 5.1 p/K are helpful
- Scores between 4.2 and 5.1 p/K keep a roster competitive
- Scores below 3.7 p/K are harmful
In Wednesday's article, I recommended 12 players for use:
- Four players (33% of those recommended) recorded p/K values above 5.1.
- Three players (25%) recorded p/K values above 6.9, ranking in the top 10% of performers.
- No players (0%) recorded a p/K value between 4.2-5.1.
- Six players (50%) recorded p/K values below 3.7.
- The best recommendation was Darrell Arthur, who recorded a p/K of 8.1. He registered the 12th highest p/K in the league Thursday night.
- The worst recommendation was Meyers Leonard. Leonard was a CD-DNP, therefore logging 0 fantasy points, and 0 p/K. While it is little solace for daily players who wasted salary and a roster spot on Leonard, pieces of the reasoning behind the Leonard recommendation were proven sound. I was right to doubt the widespread reports that Joel Freeland would be the primary beneficiary of Robin Lopez's injury – Freeland played only 13 minutes (fewer than in Lopez's last healthy game) and totaled only 13 fantasy points for a 4.3 p/K. Furthermore, the few who correctly predicted that Thomas Robinson would be Lopez's replacement were rewarded with the highest overall p/K in the league that night
Overall Wednesday, 33 percent of my recommendations were helpful, and 50 percent were damaging. This was, in many ways, my worst night of the season. Before Wednesday, no article had included more than three "harmful" recommendations, nor had more than 27% of my recommendations fallen into that category.
The team that I entered Wednesday on DraftKings was created using only players highlighted in my Wednesday article. I tallied 234.25 points for an overall p/K of 4.7.
* * *
The second night reviewed here is Thursday, December 18, when the scores required to win most contests were between 250-260 (104% of the 240-250 range). As such, I will proportionally increase expectations for this analysis:
- Scores above 5.0 p/K are helpful
- Scores between 4.2 and 5.0 p/K keep a roster competitive
- Scores below 3.6 p/K are harmful
In Thursday's article, I recommended 9 players for use (the article named 10 players, but one was only to be used if DeMarcus Cousins was inactive, which he was not):
- Three players (33% of those recommended) recorded p/K values above 5.0.
- Three players (33%) recorded p/K values above 5.5.
- Five players (56%) recorded a p/K value between 4.2-5.0.
- One player (11%) recorded p/K value below 3.6.
- The best recommendation was Jimmy Butler, who recorded a p/K of 8.7. He registered the 4th highest p/K in the league Thursday night.
- The worst recommendation was Pablo Prigioni. In the two games since Iman Shumpert got hurt, Prigioni had played 31 (in the close game against the Raptors) and 22 minutes (in the blowout loss to the Mavericks). No Knicks' guards played consistent minutes across the two games, but Prigioni's split appeared to be the one with the most promise moving forward. Apparently the minutes juggling was more of an ongoing search for a new rotation, as Prigioni played only 12 minutes Thursday, and has played 30 and 21 minutes in the games since. Thursday he scored five points, grabbed two rebounds, and totaled 9.5 fantasy points for a p/K of 2.9.
Overall, 89 percent of my recommendations were of competitive value or better, 33 percent were actively helpful, and 11 percent were damaging.
The team that I entered Thursday on DraftKings was created using only players highlighted in my Thursday article. Unfortunately for me, the player I left out was Jimmy Butler. I tallied 226.5 points for an overall p/K of 4.5.
Through 14 articles this season, I have recommended 173 players for use.
- 95 have been helpful (55%)
- 126 have been competitive or better (73%)
- 35 have been harmful (20%)