I use the Trust Tracker to publicly track the usefulness – or lack thereof – of the recommendations I made in my most recent Daily Games Cheat Sheet article.
Players are measured according to their p/K (points per thousand dollars spent). Depending on their p/K and the approximate number of points needed to win a 50-50 league that night, players are rated as either "helpful", "competitive", or "harmful".
On a normal night with a full slate of games (roughly 10 or more), you will need to score between 240 - 250 points to win a 50-50 league. On those nights, a p/K of 4.8 or higher is helpful, a p/K between 4.0-4.8 will keep a roster competitive, and a p/K below 3.5 is harmful.
Those are our baseline benchmarks, but it is important to adjust my analysis so that it reflects the night in question. While there is always variation from contest to contest, the scores required to win each one on any given night are usually very closely grouped, regardless of entry cost. Last time I wrote the Daily Games Cheat Sheet, Wednesday, November 26, the scores required to win most contests were between 260-270 (108% of the 240-250 range). As such, I will proportionally increase expectations for this analysis:
- Scores above 5.2 p/K are helpful
- Scores between 4.3 and 5.2 p/K keep a roster competitive
- Scores below 3.8 p/K are harmful
In Wednesday's article, I recommended 14 players for use:
- Eight players (57% of those recommended) recorded p/K values above 5.2.
- Six players (43%) recorded p/K values above 6.
- Three players (21%) recorded a p/K value between 4.3-5.2.
- Three players (21%) recorded p/K values below 3.8.
- The best recommendation was Omri Casspi, who recorded a p/K of 8.3. He registered the 15th highest p/K in the league Wednesday night.
- The worst recommendation was John Wall. Five days after The Wizards blew out the Cavaliers, the Cavs returned the favor with a 26-point win. Wall recorded his season low for points, tied his second lowest assist total, and went without a free throw attempt for the only time this season. It was, therefore, his worst fantasy night of the season. His 20 fantasy points corresponded to a 2.0 p/K.
Overall, 79 percent of my recommendations were of competitive value or better, 57 percent were actively helpful, and 21 percent were damaging. Most of the helpful players (43% of all recommendations) scored far above the minimum threshold for helpful.
The team that I entered Wednesday on DraftKings was created using only players highlighted in my Wednesday article. Unfortunately for me, it featured both John Wall and one of my other two harmful recommendations, limiting me to 231 points for an overall p/K of 4.6.
Through nine articles this season, I have recommended 116 players for use.
- 71 have been helpful (61%)
- 86 have been competitive or better (74%)
- 21 have been harmful (18%)