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NBA Daily Games Review: Trust Tracker

I use the Trust Tracker to publicly track the usefulness – or lack thereof – of the recommendations I made in my most recent Daily Games Cheat Sheet article.

For a more detailed introduction, check out my first and second posts here and here.

Players are measured according to their p/K (points per thousand dollars spent). Depending on their p/K and the approximate number of points needed to win a 50-50 league that night, players are rated as either "helpful", "competitive", or "harmful".

On a normal night with a full slate of games (roughly 10 or more), you will need to score between 240 - 250 points to win a 50-50 league. On those nights, a p/K of 4.8 or higher is helpful, a p/K between 4.0-4.8 will keep a roster competitive, and a p/K below 3.5 is harmful.

Those are our baseline benchmarks, but it is important to adjust my analysis so that it reflects the night in question. While there is always variation from contest to contest, the scores required to win each one on any given night are usually very closely grouped, regardless of entry cost. Last time I wrote the Daily Games Cheat Sheet, Thursday, November 20, the scores required to win most contests were between 230-235 (95% of the 240-250 range). As such, I will proportionally decrease expectations for this analysis:

  • Scores above 4.6 p/K are helpful
  • Scores between 3.8 and 4.6 p/K keep a roster competitive
  • Scores below 3.3 p/K are harmful

In Thursday's article, I recommended 11 players for use:

  • Eight players (73% of those recommended) recorded p/K values above 4.6.
  • Four players (36%) recorded p/K values above 5.5.
  • One player (9%) recorded a p/K value between 3.8-4.6.
  • One players (9%) recorded p/K values below 3.3.
  • The best recommendation was Shabazz Napier, who recorded a p/K of 9.9. He registered the highest p/K in the league Thursday night.
  • The worst recommendation was Norris Cole, who injured his finger and left the game after only ten minutes of action. As such, he recorded only 1.5 fantasy points for 0.4 p/K. No other player recommended rated as harmful.

Overall, 81 percent of my recommendations were of competitive value or better, 73 percent were actively helpful, and nine percent were damaging.

The team that I entered Thursday on DraftKings was created using only players highlighted in my Thursday article. It scored 234 points for an overall p/K of 4.7.

Season total

Through six articles this season, I have recommended 102 players for use.

  • 63 have been helpful (62%)
  • 75 have been competitive or better (74%)
  • 18 have been harmful (18%)