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Daily Games Review: Trust Tracker

I use the Trust Tracker to publicly track the usefulness – or lack thereof – of the recommendations I made in my most recent Daily Games Cheat Sheet article.

For a more detailed introduction, check out my first and second posts here and here.

Players are measured according to their p/K (points per thousand dollars spent). Depending on their p/K and the approximate number of points needed to win a 50-50 league that night, players are rated as either "helpful", "competitive", or "harmful".

On a normal night with a full slate of games (roughly 10 or more), you will need to score between 240 - 250 points to win a 50-50 league. On those nights, a p/K of 4.8 or higher is helpful, a p/K between 4.0-4.8 will keep a roster competitive, and a p/K below 3.5 is harmful.

Those are our baseline benchmarks, but it is important to adjust my analysis so that it reflects the night in question. While there is always variation from contest to contest, the scores required to win each one on any given night are usually very closely grouped, regardless of entry cost. Last time I wrote the Daily Games Cheat Sheet, Thursday, November 13, the scores required to win most contests were between 215-225 (90% of the 240-250 range). As such, I will proportionally decrease expectations for this analysis:

  • Scores above 4.3 p/K are helpful
  • Scores between 3.6 and 4.3 p/K keep a roster competitive
  • Scores below 3.2 p/K are harmful

In Thursday's article, I recommended 11 players for use:

  • Five players (45% of those recommended) recorded p/K values above 4.3.
  • Four players (36%) recorded p/K values above 5.5.
  • Two players (18%) recorded a p/K value between 3.6-4.3.
  • Three players (27%) recorded p/K values below 3.2.
  • The best recommendation was Mike Dunleavy, who recorded a p/K of 6.6. He registered the 9th highest p/K in the league Thursday night.
  • The lowest p/K was Mirza Teletovic, but the most painful recommendation was Steph Curry. Teletovic scored 9.5 fantasy points at $3,700 for only 2.6 p/K, which is certainly painful. But Curry's 28.25 fantasy points at $10,100 for 2.8 p/K was more damaging to your overall roster. Teletovic played at his season average for minutes, but went without a made basket against the strong outside defense of the Warriors.  There is no simple or straightforward explanation for why Curry had a slow night.

Overall, 64 percent of my recommendations were of competitive value or better, 45 percent were actively helpful, and 27 percent were damaging. This ranks as my worst night this season in all three categories.

The team that I entered Thursday on DraftKings was created using only players highlighted in my Thursday article. It scored 206.75 points for an overall p/K of 4.1. I used both Curry and Teletovic.

Season total

Through six articles this season, I have recommended 78 players for use.

  • 46 have been helpful (59%)
  • 56 have been competitive or better (72%)
  • 15 have been harmful (19%)