Remember when Matt Kemp was tearing up the league in April, and everyone who didn't have a top-three pick was upset they never had the chance to draft him? And then it was Josh Hamilton - on pace for 100 home runs and 1,000 RBI through the end of May. Now it's Mike Trout who despite wasting three weeks in the minors leads the majors in runs scored with 80 and steals with 36. And unlike Kemp, who cost a top-3 pick, or Hamilton, who likely went in the second or third round, Trout was dirt-cheap and hence the entirety of his production pure profit. But Trout's not the only one on a vast number of first-place fantasy teams. Let's take a look at the top-10 profit makers so far this season:
(Average Draft Position (ADP) according to MockDraftCentral.com in parentheses. All stats are through Sunday, August 12)
(1) Mike Trout (ADP: 211) - 21 HR, 65 RBI, 88 runs, 36 SB, .340 avg. in 373 AB.
(2) Edwin Encarnacion (ADP: 276) - 30 HR, 76 RBI, 65 runs, 13 SB, .293 avg. in 403 AB.
(3) R.A. Dickey (ADP: 219) - 15 wins, 166 K, .272 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 162.1 IP
(4) Chris Sale (ADP: 245) - 14 wins, 132 K, 2.60 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 138.2 IP
(5) Alex Rios (ADP: 217) - 18 HR, 67 RBI, 69 runs, 16 SB, .318 avg. in 425 AB
(6) Aroldis Chapman (ADP: >287) - 4 wins, 28 saves, 106 K, 1.26 ERA, .68 WHIP in 57 IP
(7) Carlos Beltran (ADP: 145) - 28 HR, 83 RBI, 67 runs, 10 SB, .284 avg. in 405 AB
(8) Mark Trumbo (ADP: 133) - 29 HR, 73 RBI, 54 runs, 4 steals, .288 avg. in 393 AB
(9) A.J. Pierzynski (ADP: 282) - 23 HR, 67 RBI, 50 runs, .299 avg. in 334 AB
(10) Josh Willingham (ADP: 188) - 29 HR, 84 RBI, 68 runs, 2 SB, .261 avg. in 395 AB
If you have two or more of these players, there's a good chance your team is in contention. If you have none, it's a major handicap to overcome. But on the flip side, while identifying players who vastly out-earn their draft slots takes some skill, few, if any, were able to imagine the extent to which these players would over-perform. Put differently, while the Mike Trout owners certainly deserve credit for taking a gamble on an elite prospect with no visible path to immediate playing time, few had any idea they were getting a player variously compared to Mickey Mantle and Ricky Henderson. By contrast, if you're winning while missing out on most of these massive breakouts, it means you more consistently hit on your picks from top to bottom and managed your team well throughout the season.
Don't get me wrong, however: I would much prefer to have as many of these players as possible, and leave it to others to decide how much credit I deserve while counting my winnings at the end of the year.