When it comes to fantasy football, everyone has their own particular draft strategy and style. If you like Marshawn Lynch more than Trent Richardson, you're going to take him earlier, no matter what the pre-season rankings say. You can take the suggestions of a variety of experts, but when it comes right down to it, when you're in the war room on draft day and officially on the clock, no one is making that pick but you. However, part of your draft process is to also anticipate the moves of the other nine to 11 eager-beavers at your draft. That way you can adjust your strategy on the fly like a good fantasy GM should. And that's where ADP (Average Draft Position) comes in.
While everyone may have their own individual game plan, chances are at least half of your competitors are following the same path as the rest of the fantasy world. Following the aggregate ADP rankings on a regular basis not only helps you see where the best place to draft a particular player may be, but also what the rest of the fantasy community is thinking about with regard to specific positions or individual players. In this regular piece, we will break down and analyze the ADP rankings, track each position and highlight those players who are moving up and down the leaderboards, and hopefully put you in a position to come out ahead of your competition at your draft.
Quarterbacks
Top 10
1. Aaron Rogers
2. Drew Brees
3. Cam Newton
4. Tom Brady
5. Matthew Stafford
6. Michael Vick
7. Philip Rivers
8. Eli Manning
9. Peyton Manning
10. Matt Ryan
Earliest Taken: #3 Latest Taken: #89
Most QBs Taken: Between #8 and #18 (4 out of 12 picks)
Unlike last season, it's going to be difficult to wait on a top-tier quarterback. You'll still be able to find one of the top 10 around the fifth and sixth round, but it would appear as if would need to act fast if you wanted a top five gunslinger. With so many teams turning to a two-back configuration (something we'll get to later), fantasy owners are turning to the elites at other positions to make up the points. There should be no surprises in the top 10 listing although Michael Vick certainly has the potential to drop in the rankings as more and more owners grow nervous about his injury history. The same may eventually hold true for Cam Newton who does a great amount of running on his own, but with as many rushing touchdowns as he accrues, he won't fall far at all this season.
Low ADP Quarterbacks to Monitor: Carson Palmer, Matt Schaub,Andy Dalton
Running Backs
Top 10
1. Arian Foster
2. LeSean McCoy
3. Ray Rice
4. Maurice Jones-Drew
5. Ryan Mathews
6. Trent Richardson
7. Chris Johnson
8. Demarco Murray
9. Marshawn Lynch
10. Adrian Peterson
Earliest Taken: #1 Latest Taken: #16
Most RBs taken: Between #1 and #12 (10 out of 12 picks)
If you've been playing fantasy football for some time now, none of this comes as any sort of a shock. If you're new to the game, well then let this be lesson number one. Those who touch the ball the most, usually garner the most fantasy points. Running backs that touch the ball roughly 30 times a game, whether it's rushing or receiving, tend to be the most highly coveted players on draft day. We've seen the growing trend of the two-back system over the last few seasons and it is currently at an all-time high. Anyone with the backfield all to himself is going to go early in your drafts, so if you are looking to bulk up, it's the early bird who gets the worm. TakeRyan Mathews, for example. In previous seasons, Mathews was losing carries and goal-line touches to Mike Tolbertwhich kept his value down despite being a highly touted player coming out of college. This year, with Tolbert going to Carolina, the door is open for Mathews on all downs thus increasing his fantasy appeal. Conversely, usual top 10 staple Michael Turner has dropped off the board here with news out of Atlanta regarding a decreased workload. A little surprising to seeTrent Richardson this high? Maybe. But with a somewhat questionable QB situation in Cleveland and no other back competing for regular touches, he has some strong value early on.
Low ADP Running Backs to Monitor: Roy Helu, Daniel Thomas, Michael Bush
Wide Receivers
Top 10
1. Calvin Johnson
2. A.J. Green
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Victor Cruz
5. Greg Jennings
6. Andre Johnson
7. Brandon Marshall
8. Julio Jones
9. Hakeem Nicks
10. Percy Harvin
Earliest Taken: #5 Latest Taken: #47
Most WRs Taken: Between #31 and #42 (6 out of 12 picks)
Obviously, the deepest position in fantasy football and one that comes with the greatest sink or swim potential. It's a lot easier for your number one wideout to be held without a catch or a touchdown than it is for your number one back to go without at least collecting a few points based on yardage. The majority of the top 10 are off the board after the second round and if they haven't been scooped up then, they'll disappear in round three. The big run that you'll see comes right after the last of the top 10 are gone, when owners that don't end up with a premier receiver fall into a panic mode and start scooping up wideouts at a rapid rate. You'll also see another run right around where you see the complementary backs start going and people are looking to fill in their extra WR slots and flex position. We've seen a number of names change in the top 10 from year to year which comes from a number of factors – opportunity, health, and the health of the team's QB are just some of the things you need to monitor when it comes to picking your fantasy wideouts. For example, look at A.J. Green. He's an amazing talent with great hands, and while the Bengals might not be the greatest team in the NFL, his QB, Andy Dalton, is a resilient little bugger who can shake off a minor injury and continue to get his number one target the ball. The Giants have a pair of receivers in the top 10 in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks as they move from being a run-first team to a stronger aerial attack with gunslinger Eli Manning airing it out as often as he can. The early surprise here is Percy Harvin who could see a drop with the first sign of a migraine, but with Christian Ponder proving his mettle last season, they could be a strong tandem to watch this year.
Low ADP Wide Receivers to Monitor: Brandon Lloyd, Denarius Moore, Danny Amendola
Tight Ends
Top 10
1. Jimmy Graham
2. Rob Gronkowski
3. Antonio Gates
4. Aaron Hernandez
5. Jason Witten
6. Vernon Davis
7. Fred Davis
8. Jermichael Finley
9. Brandon Pettigrew
10. Jermaine Gresham
Earliest Taken: #18 Latest Taken: #126
Most TEs Taken: Between #73 and #84 (4 out of 12)
What a difference a year makes at a position, huh? Tight ends used to be a throwaway position, at least if you didn't grab yourself a top three guy somewhere in the first six or seven rounds. Now, they are all the rage thanks to the seasons of Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, and Vernon Davis. Remember, this top 10 list is for NFL Standard leagues. When we start talking about PPR leagues, those ADP ranks are going to shoot up a lot higher overall. Most still aren't considered to be more valuable than a top running back or wide receiver, but if you look at last season's totals in just standard leagues, both Gronkowski and Graham were in the top 12 of total points amongst running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. You won't find many at the position who can do that but when you're selecting someone on draft day, you'll want to see how many targets he's accrued and how many red zone looks he tends to get. If you fail to acquire one of the top five early on, you'll still be able to find gold in the sixth or seventh round after building up the rest of your positions.
Low ADP TEs to Monitor: Dustin Keller, Dallas Clark
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy and for questions, thoughts, or comments, you can email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.