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Buy Good Pitchers Who Are Running Bad

An odd thing has happened this year - though perhaps it happens every year: pitchers who were former (or prospective) aces, but recently left for dead, have recaptured their form for stretches of varying lengths. Consider Jake Peavy and Johan Santana - two former Cy Young Award winners you could have drafted in the later rounds. Santana - even after being shelled by the Yankees - has a 73/22 K/BB ratio in 73 IP and an ERA of 2.96. Peavy has fallen off of late, but still has a 72:20 K:BB ratio in 82.2 IP, a 3.05 ERA and a 0.968 WHIP.

While they're perhaps the most notable examples because their turnarounds have spanned the entire season to date, there have been many mini-turnarounds over the last several weeks.

Francisco Liriano, who had an ERA of 8.47 as recently as May 29, has 23 strikeouts and six walks in 17.2 IP over his last three starts, allowing just five earned runs.

Clay Buchholz, hardly a former ace, but at least a former top prospect and one-time rising star, had an ERA of 7.84 through May 26. But over his last three starts, he's pitched 24 innings, allowed four earned runs, struck out 19 and walked four.

Phil Hughes, another former top prospect, had an ERA of 7.48 through May 5. Since then, he's struck out 40 batters and walked just 11 in 46.1 IP, with an ERA of 3.50.

One-time elite prospect Brian Matusz had an historically bad season in 2011, with an ERA of 10.69 over 49.2 IP picked up where he left off, compiling an ERA of 5.91 and a WHIP of 1.810 through May 11, before giving up 10 ER in his next 31.1 IP and posting a 28:9 K:BB ratio. (He has since had an ugly two-inning, four-run outing at Fenway).

But perhaps the turnaround that most beggars belief is that of former ace Ubaldo Jimenez who has 11 strikeouts and one walk in his last 13.2 IP. While it's merely a two-start sample, Jimenez' performance prior to it - 33 K, 42 BB and a WHIP of 1.790 - was so terrible that I nearly cut him in Tout Wars, a 12-team AL-only league where players like Drew Sutton and Eric Sogard were rostered (at least through Sunday night).

The takeaway here, it seems to me, is fairly obvious: any pitcher who once had elite skills - and even some of those who merely appeared on course for developing them - is capable of rebounding to something approaching his prior peak form without providing the courtesy of proper notice. As such, you might want to look at the league's ERA laggards, identify anyone who's currently healthy and performed at a high level at some point in the last few years and acquire him at a discount. (Max Scherzer, Tim Lincecum, Gavin Floyd, Ervin Santana, Adam Wainwright, Matt Moore, Jon Lester, Josh Johnson, Yovani Gallardo and Mat Latos readily come to mind.)