Last night I broke down the top high-risk players entering this summer's draft period. Tonight I'm looking at another group that's good to establish early—the high-upside, mid-round guys. I've ranked my top five upside values and detailed why their skill and situation warrants targeting them in the middle rounds.
Because your favorite breakout targets can go quickly once the top tier of players has been combed over, it's important to have a deeper list than with the high risk/reward options. For that reason, I've listed 10 honorable mentions as opposed to the five I had for the risky picks. All players are listed in the order I would value them if drafting today.
1. Eric Decker, WR (DEN)
- Decker isn't getting enough love in mock drafts this early in the process, going on average at 112th overall (per Mock Draft Central). Bank on that changing significantly once the preseason has gotten under way and the world gets to see Peyton Manning look every bit the part of his usual Hall-Of-Famer self. Decker has been working with Manning for weeks on building a rapport and by all accounts the two are developing a nice chemistry. Having caught four touchdowns apiece from Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow last year, Decker has got to be chomping at the bit to pair with a passer of Manning's caliber. With him running the show, the sky really is the limit for Decker and teammate Demaryius Thomas. As the head-and-shoulders No. 2 receiver, Decker should use his big 6-foot-3, 218-pound frame and reliable hands to put together a serious breakout season. When you combine his physical traits with his natural feel for the game, you get a receiver that could easily challenge the more heralded Thomas for the team lead in all receiving categories. I like Decker to go somewhere between rounds six and eight of all leagues in August and would be more than happy with his production as a No. 2 wideout. With a healthy Manning, he has big breakout written all over him.
2. C.J. Spiller, RB (BUF)
- Spiller is the next coming of Jamaal Charles. He just won't be coming in full force this year. When Charles broke onto the scene in 2009, his second season, he had merely a battered and beaten Larry Johnson standing between him and a featured role. Spiller on the other hand will have to fight it out for carries with a spry Fred Jackson who was in the midst of a fantasy MVP type season last year before a fractured leg ended his phenomenal run. When that opened the door for Spiller though he burst through it to the tune of 633 total yards and five scores in six starts. He flashed the vision and elite speed that made him the ninth overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, and made the mouths of many a fantasy owner water with that display of his huge potential. Spiller has the ability to get from a small crease into the secondary in a blink, just like Charles and only a handful of other backs in the league. Jackson is still the lead rusher in the Bills' offense, but it would be sinful of Buffalo to not get Spiller a minimum of 200 touches this year. Expect the pair to total as many as 500 touches in approximately a 60-40 split. Given his explosiveness, that 40|PERCENT| could land Spiller in the top-20 at the running back position, and if the 31-year-old Jackson were to finally start breaking down, top-10 potential is there for this speedster. With his current ADP of 81st overall, I love slotting Spiller into the flex position.
3. Torrey Smith, WR (BAL)
- As a raw rookie with a strike-shortened offseason that hamstrung his development, Smith still managed to rack up more than 800 yards and seven scores. He more than doubled up veteran Anquan Boldin on touchdowns and slowly leapfrogged him as the year went on to become the best fantasy receiver in Baltimore. With 4.4-speed and good overall size at 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, Smith is easily the more dynamic receiver of the two and a more than capable deep threat for the big-armed Joe Flacco. Assuming he continues to hone his craft and expand his route tree during his first offseason, there's little reason to expect less than a 1,000-yard sophomore season for Smith. Aside from Ray Rice, he's the Ravens' most explosive weapon and by increasing his targets and varying the way in which he's used, Baltimore has a chance to have a tremendous offensive core with Rice, Flacco and Smith providing big plays and methodical drives. Though he has a greater ceiling, I think for this season he's realistically going to come in around 1,100 yards and 8-10 scores, which at his current ADP of 96 overall would be a major steal. I expect Smith's ADP to rise a bit over the summer, but still like him a lot in about the 8th round as a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 receiver.
4. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR (OAK)
- Heyward-Bey's younger teammate, Denarius Moore, is currently going higher in drafts on Mock Draft Central (108 overall versus 127 for DHB). Admittedly, Moore is a better deep threat than Heyward-Bey. He has great speed, good leaping ability and tracks the ball extremely well over either shoulder. But that pretty much sums up Moore's game. At this early stage in his career he's not proven to be anything more than a one-trick pony for the most part. Heyward-Bey meanwhile is a much more complete receiver, who can run the short, intermediate and deep routes and is capable of breaking off a big play by shedding tacklers and using his explosive speed in space. At the end of last season he really showed his growth by connecting with Carson Palmer for 456 yards and three scores on 29 catches in the final five games, with each outing good for at least seven fantasy points. Though he fell just shy of his first 1,000-yard season with 975 on 64 grabs, Heyward-Bey is absolutely poised to blow through that mark after getting a full offseason to work with Palmer, who seems rejuvenated in the new location. DHB should be drafted as a No. 3 receiver in all formats and should rise above his more hyped teammate in drafts this summer, likely going in the seventh to ninth-round range.
5. Greg Little, WR (CLE)
- Let's just say I believe in Brandon Weeden's arm enough. I'm not banking on the 28-year-old rookie having a season on par with Andy Dalton for example, but I do think he can sling it well and will be looking Little's way very, very often. As a rookie last year Little was tied for 20th in targets with 121 and seeing as how he remains far and away the most talented receiving option in Cleveland, that number could rise considerably. The Browns should be able to stay on the field more with a much improved rushing game featuring Trent Richardson toting the rock and a passing game that should be more efficient with Weeden's accurate arm. That equals more opportunities for Little to post catches, yards and scores. Being in the ultra-competitive AFC North division also means that Cleveland could find themselves behind in a lot of games and throwing often to play catch-up. With Little reportedly entering OTAs in great condition, it seems the young man is very focused and eager to take the next step in becoming a true No. 1 receiver. Getting a full offseason to work with a better passer and improve as a route runner and technician, it's likely Little will raise his 50|PERCENT| catch rate significantly and tap further into the vast potential his imposing 6-foot-2, 220-pound frame provides. Going on average in the eighth to tenth-round range (111 overall on MDC), he'd be a tremendous value grab. Though I don't think he'll quite hit it, his ceiling for Year 2 is 1,100+ yards and 8+ scores, as he should see in excess of 150 targets.
Honorable Mention:
Peyton Hillis, RB (KC) – I'm going out on a limb and calling it now. Hillis will outrush Charles in the Kansas City backfield. He's going to come out with a vengeance and a familiar face in Brian Daboll (his o-coordinator with the Browns in 2010) will make great use of the rather large chip on his rather large shoulders.
Robert Griffin III, QB (WAS) – RGIII scares me a bit as a mid-round pick but it's extremely hard to ignore the young man's physical skillset as both a passer and a runner. It will be interesting to see if he uses his legs enough to achieve his fantasy upside as a rookie, as it's tough to imagine his passing numbers being any better than say Dalton's were last year.
Michael Floyd, WR (AZ) – Floyd brings all the physical tools to the table to excel right out of the gate as a rookie. If Larry Fitzgerald can impart some of his knowledge and drive onto the young man in the offseason and the quarterback issues play out well, a 1,000-yard season is not out of the question.
Fred Davis, TE (WAS) – Davis will be an early favorite of Mr. Griffin's and he boasts unique speed and elusiveness for a tight end that should make him a very serious threat for 1,000-yard season. Expect Davis to lead the Skins in nearly all receiving categories.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB (CIN) – Despite having to deal with the tough, black-and-blue AFC North competition, BGE should post his second 1,000-yard season while receiving a career-high in carries. He's highly reliable at the goal line and though he's far from a dynamic runner, he's physical and decisive enough to put up more than 4.0 yards per attempt.
Justin Blackmon, WR (JAC) – Many seem to be overreacting to the impact that Blackmon's landing in Jacksonville will have on his fantasy numbers. Frankly, I think this is easily as good, if not a better spot than St. Louis would have been. Blaine Gabbert throws a nice ball when he sets his feet and Blackmon will be on the other end of a lot of looks in Year 1.
Robert Meachem, WR (SD) – Meachem showed flashes of his upside in New Orleans (particularly with a nine-score 2009 season) and now gets a chance to compete with Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd to be Philip Rivers' No. 1 target. With Gates and Floyd often infected by the injury bug, I like Meachem's odds of posting a banner year.
LeGarrette Blount, RB (TB) – Doug Martin is going to steal Blount's role as a featured runner. But that doesn't mean Blount can't have a big year. The Bucs project to be a gritty, pound-it-down-your-throat type of offense and behind one of the best o-lines in football, Blount could be the hammer that finishes a lot of drives. Additionally, if anything happens to Martin, he should be in line for a huge workload.
James Starks, RB (GB) – If the Packers haven't brought in another back to compete with Starks by late August, he's worth rolling the dice on at the back of the mid rounds. Even though he's been injury riddled through much of his two years, he has enough physical gifts that he could put up big numbers in Green Bay's elite offense.
Donald Brown, RB (IND) – With the former first-round pick showing signs of life late last season (particularly in a 16-carry, 161-yard game), the Colts opted to bring in little competition for carries between he and Delone Carter. Given that Brown is easily the most explosive runner on the roster, it's likely he'll get an extended shot to be a lead back.