How appropriate that the final edition of this series coincides with a relatively stagnant ADP Trent Report. There are still some risers and fallers worth discussing, but, for the most part, there has been very little fluctuation between rounds 1 through 20 lately. Perhaps that will change due to the significantly large number of drafts that will occur over the weekend, but for your prep work right now, you have a very good sense as to where specific players are going in most drafts. But since fantasy championships are often won with savvy drafting in the later rounds, let's highlight a number of players who are still rising and falling and whether they are worth your time and attention come draft day.
Chris Davis, 1B BAL (ADP: 295.72; -17.5|PERCENT|) – As always with Davis, it's sink or swim, feast or famine. He's got fantastic power potential but with such high strikeout totals, he becomes a drain on your batting average. However, one thing that Davis now has that he didn't before is an opportunity to play regularly. The Orioles seem content with low averages and big power as Davis and Mark Reynolds will man the corners of their infield. His decline in the ADP ranks can definitely be used to your advantage as that's a lot of power to be had so late. Yes, it comes with a price, but if Reynolds is getting draft love, then why not Davis as well? He comes real cheap in auctions and can be a slick final round pick-up in snake drafts. You don't have to leave him in your lineup every day, but if he goes on a hot streak, you'll be reaping massive benefits for such a paltry investment.
Jon Jay, OF STL (319.51; -15.2|PERCENT|) – Earlier in the spring, Jay's value grew with word that he would have the starting center field job this season. However, things have changed recently and Jay's stock is starting to plummet with word that he may not have an everyday job anymore. With Allen Craig on the mend and likely to be ready for Opening Day, word out of Cardinals camp is that Carlos Beltran could be shifted over to center field with Craig getting the start against lefties. It's not that Jay hit poorly against southpaws, but the club feels that Craig gives them a better chance at higher run production. If this does come to fruition, then Jay needs to be downgraded on draft boards. Things could change, especially given Beltran's health issues in the past, but for now it looks like Jay will be stuck in a platoon.
Derek Lowe, SP CLE (311.23; +25.6|PERCENT|) – Although the strikeout totals have been awful, Lowe is actually having himself a nice spring with the Tribe this year. He's thrown 18 innings and posted a 3.50 ERA and has held the opposition to a .262 average. However, seven strikeouts to four walks does not make for a strong starter in your rotation and that begs the question, "why is he climbing up the ADP ranks?" Lowe has been around for some time now and has had success in both the American and national leagues. Perhaps he is just getting by on name these days. Last year was less than spectacular, and there really hasn't been anything dazzling to see this spring. Not to mention, the Tribe is skipping Lowe's next spring start due to back problems and while there's no indication that he will start the season on the DL, it's obviously a concern. There are probably a lot better options to take a chance on so late in your draft. You might want to explore them before taking a shot here.
Bartolo Colon, SP OAK (326.74; +19.6) – This guy's turning into a human Timex. Not only is he still going, but he's actually still doing it with a certain amount of success. For the Yankees in 2011, Colon was rock solid in the first half, posting a 5-3 record with a 3.10 ERA and 1.072 WHIP through his first 11 starts. A hamstring injury in mid-June put the kibosh on that he struggled through the second half. This season, he gets a much more favorable park in Oakland and is very capable of putting up first half numbers equivalent to those from 2011. In fact, he's already off to a nice start pitching eight very strong innings of one-run, three-hit ball to notch the win over Seattle in the opening series in Japan. He also ended up with six strikeouts to just one walk. The only caveat will be his health with respect to his age and size. There's a greater chance that he will wear down after the first half again and possibly even get hurt. However, he is certainly worth a look in deeper AL-only leagues and, if successful, should be a nice sell-high candidate.
Juan Nicasio, SP COL (247.13; +13.8|PERCENT|) – The stigma of being a Rockies starter will always sit in the minds of fantasy owners during drafts, but that shouldn't stop you from investing in Nicasio. His 13.8|PERCENT| increase indicates that others are becoming wise to him as well, so we're not the only ones thinking that he's worth a look. Nicasio's notoriety actually comes in the form of his injury last year as a line drive came back and hit him in the neck/head area and surgery was required to repair the C1 vertebrae in his neck. However, that's all in the past now and Nicasio has looked solid this spring thus far. He is routinely clocked at 97 mph on the gun and owns a 3.09 ERA with 21 strikeouts through 23.1 innings. When you're looking to round out your rotation in the final rounds of the draft, he should definitely be on your radar.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire,FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.