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ADP Trends for Closers: Dealing With Injury

The rash of injuries that has descended upon the closers this spring has been absolutely brutal for most fantasy owners. If you've already drafted, then there's a good chance that you're already looking to spend some free agent bid dollars or use up your waiver priority just to pick up the pieces. If you haven't, then there's still time to make the necessary adjustments to your draft depth charts and possibly even find a few bargains. Today we're going to look at four of the biggest injuries to closers, their potential replacements, and how the ADP trend report can help guide you as to where to expect these players to come off the board during the upcoming week.

Kansas City Royals

Current ADPChange1 Week AgoChange2 Weeks AgoOverall Trend
Joakim Soria177.76-4.2|PERCENT|170.53-0.2|PERCENT|170.19-4.4|PERCENT|
Jonathan Broxton217.23101.3|PERCENT|437.38NR
Greg Holland238.425.8|PERCENT|252.300.0|PERCENT|252.305.8|PERCENT|

The handwriting had been on the wall for a few weeks already as incumbent closer Joakim Soria was struggling mightily this spring. Not only was he getting beaten up in Cactus league games, allowing seven runs in 3.1 innings, but he wasn't faring any better in 'B' games or split squad games either. If you took that and coupled it with his decline in 2011, which actually included a stint on the DL with elbow problems and a temporary loss of the closer's job, then you probably already knew to avoid him in drafts this year. When an MRI revealed damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in Soria's pitching elbow, his season was over. He received two more opinions and they both came with the identical diagnosis and understanding that Tommy John surgery was the only remedy. His season was over before it even started.

The two primary candidates for replacing Soria are Jonathan Broxton and Greg Holland and as you can see from the ADP trend report above, most people have Broxton tabbed as the next in line.  Broxton has taken a huge increase over this past week and has now gone from being completely undrafted to being an 18th round selection in 12-team mixed leagues while Holland has basically maintained his place in the ADP ranks with just a slight upward tick.   There's no denying that Broxton has the experience to close out games, but in actuality, Holland has been the better pitcher, dating back to last season.

After a decline in 2010, Broxton spent most of last season on the disabled list with elbow problems and when he did finally return, he didn't come close to resembling the pitcher who once saved 36 games for the Dodgers and had a 13.50 K/9. When the season concluded, Broxton ended up having arthroscopic surgery on his pitching elbow and has spent all winter rehabbing. His results this spring have all been fairly positive, but there's still some trepidation that comes with relying on him to close out games.

Meanwhile, Holland, who was absolutely dynamic in 2011, posting a 1.80 ERA over 60 innings with a 3.89 K/BB ratio, is picking right up this spring where he left off. He's allowed three runs over eight Cactus League innings (and two of those were actually allowed to score by another reliever) and has posted a 12.00 K/BB thus far. He's a ground ball pitcher with 95 mph heat and actually should be the one to close out games long term. As you can see in the trend report, he is coming off the board later than Broxton now, so if you want to build your relief corps on the cheap, you might want to wait a couple of rounds after Broxton gets taken and swoop in on Holland. In the end, you will probably end up with the greater value pick.

Cincinnati Reds

Current ADPChange1 Week AgoChange2 Weeks AgoOverall Trend
Ryan Madson151.41-2.6|PERCENT|147.49-0.7|PERCENT|146.39-3.3|PERCENT|
Sean Marshall246.321.2|PERCENT|249.190.5|PERCENT|250.341.6|PERCENT|

Everyone suspected something was up when Ryan Madson failed to make a single game appearance this spring, and perhaps we should have all taken our cue when no other Major League team tried to sign him early in the offseason. He was actually the last closer left on the market and it would seem that we now know why. An MRI revealed that Madson had actually torn the ligament off the bone and that Tommy John surgery was the only answer. Just like Soria, his season is over.

But the Reds don't have as many options as the Royals do and are likely to turn the job over to former Cub reliever, Sean Marshall. As you can see on the trend report, he was a good enough reliever to be drafted even without the closer's job, so you can probably expect for his ADP to rise over the next several days by more than just the 1.6|PERCENT| it has climbed over the last two weeks. He won't reach the current ADP of Madson, who will obviously drop significantly, but you should see a significant enough increase to know that Marshall should be taken somewhere around the 185th pick, right where closers like Huston Street and Jason Motte are going. Given the rest of the Reds' bullpen, the leash on Marshall should be long enough to warrant making that type of investment in him. 

Washington Nationals

Current ADPChange1 Week AgoChange2 Weeks AgoOverall Trend
Drew Storen80.08-1.1|PERCENT|79.180.4|PERCENT|79.50-0.7|PERCENT|
Brad Lidge272.9820.8|PERCENT|329.85-4.1|PERCENT|316.4015.9|PERCENT|
Henry RodriguezNRNRNR

For the last few weeks, there have been numerous question marks surroundingDrew Storen. He began to feel tightness in his biceps and triceps right around the same time he developed strep throat, so the team was waiting for him to heal before worrying about his arm. However, two weeks had gone by , the inflammation in his arm hadn't subsided and Storen hadn't thrown a pitch since that first day he felt something. Could this be why the Nationals were happy to shop him around the league last year?

A recent MRI revealed no structural issues and the UCL in his pitching elbow appeared fine. However, with the long layoff and the nationals still showing concern for long-term damage, Storen will likely begin the season on the disabled list. For how long is still up in the air.  WhileTyler Clippard would have been everyone's natural inclination as a replacement, manager Davey Johnson has stated that the job will be turned over to either Brad Lidge or Henry Rodriguez. And as you can see by the ADP trends, Lidge is the one in whom everyone believes. 

However, before you go buying into Lidge and help raise that 15.9|PERCENT| increase, keep in mind that this is the same Lidge who has bounced in and out of closer jobs before. He's had health issues of his own over the years in addition to those times where he's been healthy but just looked awful on the mound. That's not to say that Rodriguez is the answer, because in actuality, the job will default back to Storen when the club feels that he is ready to return. Even if he started the season on the DL, he probably wouldn't be missing all that much time. Lidge may not be going earlier than the 22nd round, but before you throw that pick away for a small handful of saves, continue to check in on what the club says they expect during Storen's recovery.

Cleveland Indians

Current ADPChange1 Week AgoChange2 Weeks AgoOverall Trend
Chris Perez198.300.7|PERCENT|199.640.1|PERCENT|199.870.8|PERCENT|
Vinnie Pestano234.72-4.4|PERCENT|224.31-0.6|PERCENT|222.91-5.0|PERCENT|

While this situation has been tenuous for some time, you wouldn't know it by looking at the trend report. Chris Perez has been down with an oblique injury this spring and Vinnie Pestano has been the one tabbed as the next in line if Perez needed to start the season on the DL. But this actually dates back to last season when Pestano clearly out-pitched Perez in all aspects, yet Perez remained the Tribe's closer all year. Perez had a 3.32 ERA over 59.2 innings with a 5.58 K/9 while Pestano posted a 2.32 ERA over 62 innings with a 12.19 K/9. Pestano had the better walk rate, he held the opposition to a lower batting average, and his 16.3|PERCENT| swinging-strike percentage crushed that of Perez. There was no doubt as to who the strong pitcher was in that bullpen. Yet Perez remained the closer.

And judging by the trend report, most people seem to feel that, despite this oblique injury, the pecking order won't change. That's where you can use this to your advantage. Truthfully, it should just be a matter of time before Pestano owns the job. Maybe he doesn't start out with it to open the season, but it will be his at some point and from there he won't let go. The fact that his ADP puts him as a late 17th/early 18th round selection means that you'll be able to grab him at a bargain rate this year and watch him earn a tremendous value in fantasy leagues. You should still make a decent investment in a better closer, but as you second guy, he'll be worth the wait.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire,FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz.  You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.