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Top 20 Fantasy Effects of the Offseason (part 2)

A couple days ago I began a discussion of the 20 moves of the offseason that have the biggest fantasy impact, ranking 1-10. Here is the conclusion of the list with the 10 less-heralded moves that will be very relevant next year.

11. Steve Hutchinson, OG (TEN) – A lot of factors played into the fantasy nosedive that Chris Johnson took for virtually all of last season, but no one aspect was more troublesome than the awful run blocking he endured. Enter the seven-time All-Pro guard Hutchinson. With the major upgrade at guard, the Titans run blocking stands to improve greatly, as the primary issue was with the interior of the line and Hutchinson's presence will make it much easier for the center and other guard as well. Add in the fact that Johnson should get a full offseason of work after holding out last summer for an extension and you have the recipe for a big bounce back season from CJ2K.

12. Marques Colston, WR (NO) – The Saints were bound to lose a receiver in free agency, since there was no way they were going to pay both Colston and Robert Meachem. Fortunately for the value of Drew Brees they were able to hold onto their star wideout. If he'd also elected to leave, there's no way they could have adequately filled the void of both receivers and Brees' stock would have taken a hit. The absence of Meachem may slightly raise Colston's numbers, but the real beneficiary in my mind is Jimmy Graham, who has one less receiver stealing targets from him. As ridiculous as Rob Gronkowski can be, I'd be quite surprised if Graham doesn't finish as the No. 1 tight end.

13. Randy Moss, WR (SF) – A motivated Moss can still be a terror for defensive backs despite his age and an average quarterback. So even though he's a huge wildcard this season, considering he'll drop quite a bit in drafts, the potential rewards of having a focused first ballot hall-of-famer far outweigh the risks of getting a takes-plays-off, past his prime prima donna. If he falls past the sixth round of any leagues, I'd roll the dice. Of all the Niners' receivers, he easily has the greatest upside. His presence alone makes me like Michael Crabtree better as well. With Moss forcing a safety to commit to him on the many go routes he'll run, Crabtree should face nothing but single coverage underneath and finally be able to excel as the No. 2 possession receiver he is. A career year can be expected from Crabtree and obviously the beefed up receiver corps will aid Vernon Davis significantly as well.

14. Pierre Garcon, WR (WAS) – Though he's not a true No. 1 and likely never will be, Garcon has the chance to put up some solid numbers this year as the best wide receiver catching passes from Robert Griffin III. Garcon's addition to the Redskins gives them quality depth at receiver, and with Fred Davis leading the way, the group should give Griffin the chance to post upwards of 3,500 passing yards and 20 scores. Of that total I'd expect Garcon to claim about 900-1,100 yards, while Davis leads the team in scores. Though Mike Shanahan can be a nightmare at times for fantasy owners, I like the look of the Skins' offense this year under Griffin and would be happy to own one or more of their weapons for the right price. Roy Helu, who should also benefit from a more wide open passing attack, will be worth the cost of a fifth or sixth round pick, while Evan Royster could be a fantastic late round investment.

15. Robert Meachem, WR (SD) – In an extremely crowded and talented New Orleans offense with a quarterback that spreads the ball around to keep defenses off balance, Meachem could often disappear for stretches at a time. But don't forget that this is a former first round draft pick with the size and speed to become a No. 1 receiver in both real and fantasy football. I love that he left the Saints to go to the Chargers and replace Vincent Jackson. While he will have to compete with Malcom Floyd to be the team's No. 1 wideout, I don't think it's a competition he'll lose, particularly given Floyd's brittle history. As a deep threat for Philip Rivers, it would be a bit surprising if Meachem doesn't finally realize his first round potential and at least come very close to his first 1,000-yard season, which will make him an excellent mid-round value on draft day. By bringing him and Eddie Royal into the picture, and with up-and-coming possession receiver Vincent Brown stepping into a larger role—not to mention some guy named Antonio Gates—Rivers should bounce back from a poor season by his standards and return to being a top-notch fantasy producer.

16. Reggie Wayne, WR (IND) – Andrew Luck would have really been left with a bare cupboard if Wayne had decided to skip town and either follow Peyton Manning or finish his career elsewhere. By staying put in the horseshoe, Wayne gives the rookie a steady and still talented veteran to rely on in what is almost certain to be a rocky year in Indy while the team rebuilds. Though Wayne will turn 34 during the 2012 season, he still has enough juice left to produce like a No. 1 receiver for one or two more years, and given Luck's pro-ready skillset and maturity, it wouldn't be the least bit surprising for him to post his eighth career 1,000-yard season. With his age and his team's situation possibly scaring off a lot of owners, that could make Wayne a great value on draft day.

17. Laurent Robinson, WR (JAC) – Everyone wants to write off any receiver that catches passes from Blaine Gabbert simply because the kid struggled a lot during his rookie year. With Robinson I believe that's a mistake. Though he definitely fits better in an offense that allows him to be the No. 2 receiver, I can still see him thriving as the No. 1 in Jacksonville. He's got pretty good size at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds, his speed is better than average and he runs smooth routes. And more importantly, he's quarterback friendly. Robinson does a great job of breaking off his route and getting open when a play breaks down, and that could be a huge help for the young Gabbert, who doesn't make reads quickly enough but has the athleticism to extend a play. In those instances Robinson should make some nice plays, and overall he should get enough targets that if Gabbert makes any strides this season (and there's little reason to believe he won't) Robinson can put up close to 1,000 yards and about a half dozen scores. Considering the potential for him to be a forgotten man on draft day, I definitely like the value here, and I like it even more if the Jaguars get smart and draft Michael Floyd with their first pick.

18. John Carlson, TE (MIN) – When this guy came into the league, I remember discussing with a lot of people that this could be the next Jason Witten. After three years as a starter and one lost to a bad shoulder injury, that's all but forgotten. With his move to Minnesota (his home state), I think Carlson will remind a lot of people why such a lofty comparison was ever relevant. In his first two years Carlson caught over 100 total passes and 12 scores, but when Pete Carroll took over in 2010 he was barely used for some inexplicable reason. But in a Vikings offense that likes to use the tight end and is lacking in other receiving threats, I wouldn't be surprised to see Carlson have a career year. Though he'll battle with fellow former Notre Dame tight end Kyle Rudolph (who himself compares favorably with Witten) for targets and red zone looks, it should actually benefit both to line up together. It's not out of the realm of possibility that each could catch 50+ balls and post good yardage and touchdown totals as a Midwestern—albeit poor man's—version of the Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez combo.

19. Mario Manningham, WR (SF) – The value arrow here is pointing down. Manningham had the chance to sign somewhere and be the clear No. 2 receiver on that team, and possibly even the No. 1 if he went somewhere like St. Louis or Miami where there is a desperate receiver need. Instead he chose to stay a third fiddle at best and give himself a chance for another Super Bowl run. In San Francisco I expect him to end up as the third or even the fourth most productive pass catcher on the team, and given that it's not even a strong passing offense, that means about 600 yards and four or five scores—a far cry from what he could have done in a lot of other offenses. Don't be surprised if he finishes with weaker numbers than Davis, Moss and Crabtree, and certainly don't overspend for him on draft day.

20. Alex Smith, QB (SF) – After courting Manning and hurting Smith's feelings, it would have been a huge hit to the Niners' offense had Smith elected to take his emotions to South Beach. Fortunately for the new receiver additions and returning talent in the Bay, they won't be left with an inexperienced and below average replacement. And likewise for Smith, the best spot for him to succeed is right where he stayed. With the new weapons around him in Moss and Manningham, if Jim Harbaugh opens the offense up he could be in line for a career year. While that's not going to make him a fantasy starter, it does qualify him as potentially one of the better backups, with a ceiling of about 3,500 yards and 25 scores.