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Offseason Observations

The Peyton Manning Sweepstakes makes for great TV and an exceptionally interesting free agency period. While I personally wouldn't rank him as the all-time greatest free agent (Reggie White, anyone?), I still have to admit that—barring his health—whatever team he ultimately picks is an immediate contender for their division, and more importantly, will be full of fantasy production. Most recent speculation has Manning apparently choosing between Denver and Arizona, while Miami seems to still be in the hunt. My initial money was on Miami and I want to keep it there, but it's hard to not see him taking over a Broncos team in a very winnable division. It would be a shame to see the Mile High Messiah (a.k.a. Tim Tebow) pushed out of Denver, but from a fantasy standpoint it would be great for Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, both of whom could be studs with Manning under center. And assuming Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark both follow Manning that could make for an impressive passing game. In the desert a Manning to Larry Fitzgerald combo would be nearly unstoppable, while Andre Roberts could turn into a highly productive slot receiver and Early Doucet (if re-signed) could play a Pierre Garcon type role as a big play receiver that never sees double coverage. Again adding in Wayne and Clark to the mix and you've got a seriously high-powered offense, especially if Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams are both healthy. Finally if Manning ends up taking his talents to South Beach and bringing his boys from Indy his numbers could be ridiculous. Brandon Marshall would be an absolute beast. Wayne would find the fountain of youth in his hometown. Clark and Anthony Fasano would terrorize linebackers and safeties, and Brian Hartline and Davone Bess would dominate out of the slot. Throw in Reggie Bush out of the backfield and second-year speedster Clyde Gates (of the 4.3 40-time variety) for the occasional big play and you have a pass attack that can't be slowed behind a powerful offensive line anchored by left tackle Jake Long and center Mike Pouncey.

The Redskins move to grab Robert Griffin III is huge and has major implications in free agency, the draft and of course fantasy. Though the Skins mortgaged their future drafts (three 1st-rounders and a 2nd), they will add a player that should immediately be no worse than a poor man's Cam Newton as a rookie and could ultimately be even better than Newton given his skills as a passer. Additionally, if it encourages a playmaker of Vincent Jackson's caliber to sign with Washington next week, then the move could instantly make Washington a playoff contender next season and could allow Griffin to make a run at Manning's rookie record of 26 TD passes. That signing would potentially give him the following weapons: Jackson, Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney, Leonard Hankerson, Fred Davis, Chris Cooley, Roy Helu Jr. and Evan Royster. He won't have the rushing scores of a Newton, but with that supporting cast to work with, I'm definitely buying Griffin as an upper echelon backup with a top-10 fantasy ceiling.

With Griffin off the table the Browns will look to sign Matt Flynn. However, if Miami loses the Manning sweepstakes, don't expect Flynn to land anywhere but in the AFC East to play for his former offensive coordinator Joe Philbin. That could crush the Browns' hopes of replacing the struggling Colt McCoy, but securing a quarterback of the future won't even matter for Cleveland if they don't add some weapons for their signal caller. If I am the Browns, I'm stealing Justin Blackmon with the 4th pick in the draft to give Flynn, McCoy or whoever a legit No. 1 receiver (and also to stick it to the Rams for not dealing with them to move up and get Griffin). Ideally, they'd also be able to add one of the deep threat free agent receivers, like a Garcon, Robert Meachem or Laurent Robinson. Adding any one of them to a core of Blackmon, Greg Little and Mohamed Massaquoi would at least give their passing game some hope, Flynn or no Flynn.

Outside of Manning, Flynn and Jackson the most intriguing free agent to me, particularly from a fantasy standpoint, is Michael Bush. He only had 10 games last year as the lead back and still managed nearly 1,400 yards and eight scores. And since he's received just 723 touches in four years as a Raider, his body should have plenty left in the tank to take on a full time feature role. Speculation has been made that he'll stay in the division, which likely won't lead to a feature role, as he'd be more of a change of pace, big back behind Jamaal Charles in Kansas City or part of a rotation in Denver's run-heavy scheme (though count Denver out of the running if they splurge on a big Manning contract). But if he went somewhere like the Colts or Bengals, he could easily take over the lead role for either team and have the upside to go for 1,600+ total yards and 10+ scores, or in other words, be a top-10 fantasy back.

In other notes, the Falcons' signing of former Seahawk Lofa Tatupu may signal the departure of Curtis Lofton in free agency, which would be a huge mistake in my opinion. Even though Lofton may struggle at times in coverage and offers little as a pass rusher, he'll be just 26 at the start of the season and has amassed nearly 500 total tackles in four years. He's easily one of the top middle linebackers in the league and improved in all areas last season. If he does opt to leave, look for the Eagles to be a top suitor. Wherever he lands though, count Lofton as a top IDP option again next year. The Giants released Brandon Jacobs, who is a long shot to ever be a good fantasy option ever again, regardless of where he lands. The Colts cut ties with a number of veterans, including Clark and Joseph Addai. While I don't see Addai ever carrying much value again, I could see Clark producing one or two more big seasons in the right offense (especially if he follows Manning). If the Colts elect to not find another feature back, I can completely see Donald Brown finally having a fantasy breakout. And finally, Randy Moss will be back and will be very relevant, particularly if he ends up replacing Marques Colston for the Saints.