After looking at the top-50 and bottom-50 BABIP pitchers with 1000 IP since 1995 I figured I'd do the same with HR/FB, another stat often considered to have a large luck component. The theory is that pitchers have more control over what kind of batted ball they allow (ground ball, line drive, fly ball) than whether a particular fly ball clears the fence. As in the BABIP argument, it presumes that inducing weak contact (in this case weak contact on balls in the air) isn't likely to be a repeatable skill. Let's take a look at the career numbers of the "lucky" and "unlucky" with respect to HR/FB. Keep in mind that park effects probably play a bigger role here than they do in BABIP.
| Top-50 | IP | BABIP | GB|PERCENT| | HR/FB | Bottom-50 | IP | BABIP | GB|PERCENT| | HR/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Quantrill | 1015.1 | 0.319 | 47.20|PERCENT| | 5.00|PERCENT| | Todd Stottlemyre | 1052.2 | 0.293 | 47.20|PERCENT| | 21.10|PERCENT| |
| Mariano Rivera | 1211.1 | 0.262 | 53.20|PERCENT| | 6.20|PERCENT| | David Cone | 1206 | 0.291 | 43.10|PERCENT| | 19.00|PERCENT| |
| Matt Cain | 1317.1 | 0.265 | 37.20|PERCENT| | 6.50|PERCENT| | Scott Erickson | 1469 | 0.305 | 55.00|PERCENT| | 15.50|PERCENT| |
| Tim Lincecum | 1028 | 0.293 | 47.10|PERCENT| | 7.40|PERCENT| | Denny Neagle | 1565.2 | 0.283 | 38.00|PERCENT| | 14.80|PERCENT| |
| Jason Schmidt | 1996.1 | 0.289 | 38.20|PERCENT| | 7.50|PERCENT| | Charles Nagy | 1227.2 | 0.314 | 45.60|PERCENT| | 14.70|PERCENT| |
| Jered Weaver | 1131.2 | 0.276 | 33.10|PERCENT| | 7.60|PERCENT| | Brett Myers | 1623.1 | 0.292 | 47.50|PERCENT| | 14.20|PERCENT| |
| Chad Billingsley | 1013.2 | 0.302 | 46.50|PERCENT| | 7.60|PERCENT| | Bobby Jones | 1297 | 0.293 | 36.40|PERCENT| | 13.60|PERCENT| |
| Justin Verlander | 1315.1 | 0.285 | 40.00|PERCENT| | 7.80|PERCENT| | Terry Mulholland | 1406.1 | 0.3 | 47.60|PERCENT| | 13.60|PERCENT| |
| Andy Benes | 1389 | 0.287 | 34.10|PERCENT| | 7.80|PERCENT| | Mark Mulder | 1314 | 0.294 | 55.10|PERCENT| | 13.50|PERCENT| |
| Kelvim Escobar | 1507 | 0.302 | 44.90|PERCENT| | 7.90|PERCENT| | Pat Hentgen | 1626.2 | 0.284 | 37.50|PERCENT| | 13.40|PERCENT| |
| Julian Tavarez | 1365.2 | 0.308 | 54.40|PERCENT| | 8.00|PERCENT| | Brandon Webb | 1319.2 | 0.286 | 64.20|PERCENT| | 13.20|PERCENT| |
| Dave Burba | 1493 | 0.295 | 40.00|PERCENT| | 8.10|PERCENT| | Shawn Estes | 1678.1 | 0.303 | 50.60|PERCENT| | 13.20|PERCENT| |
| LaTroy Hawkins | 1261.2 | 0.308 | 47.10|PERCENT| | 8.10|PERCENT| | James Baldwin | 1322.2 | 0.294 | 36.10|PERCENT| | 13.10|PERCENT| |
| Cliff Lee | 1641.2 | 0.295 | 39.30|PERCENT| | 8.30|PERCENT| | Jeff Fassero | 1604.1 | 0.31 | 48.70|PERCENT| | 12.90|PERCENT| |
| Chuck Finley | 1564 | 0.306 | 50.40|PERCENT| | 8.40|PERCENT| | Ramon Ortiz | 1423 | 0.287 | 40.60|PERCENT| | 12.90|PERCENT| |
| Al Leiter | 2052 | 0.281 | 41.30|PERCENT| | 8.40|PERCENT| | Scott Elarton | 1065.1 | 0.275 | 33.00|PERCENT| | 12.90|PERCENT| |
| CC Sabathia | 2364.1 | 0.291 | 45.20|PERCENT| | 8.50|PERCENT| | Cory Lidle | 1322.2 | 0.293 | 49.00|PERCENT| | 12.80|PERCENT| |
| Wilson Alvarez | 1221.2 | 0.284 | 35.00|PERCENT| | 8.60|PERCENT| | Shane Reynolds | 1631.1 | 0.312 | 45.60|PERCENT| | 12.70|PERCENT| |
| Barry Zito | 2252 | 0.268 | 37.80|PERCENT| | 8.70|PERCENT| | Derek Lowe | 2515.2 | 0.295 | 62.60|PERCENT| | 12.50|PERCENT| |
| Roy Oswalt | 2154 | 0.296 | 47.30|PERCENT| | 8.80|PERCENT| | Odalis Perez | 1335 | 0.298 | 47.70|PERCENT| | 12.30|PERCENT| |
| Jarrod Washburn | 1863.2 | 0.273 | 36.20|PERCENT| | 8.80|PERCENT| | Nate Robertson | 1152.1 | 0.304 | 46.50|PERCENT| | 12.30|PERCENT| |
| Mark Redman | 1238.2 | 0.303 | 42.20|PERCENT| | 8.80|PERCENT| | Jose Lima | 1561 | 0.297 | 38.80|PERCENT| | 12.30|PERCENT| |
| Ron Villone | 1168 | 0.286 | 38.70|PERCENT| | 8.80|PERCENT| | Brian Anderson | 1434 | 0.284 | 38.60|PERCENT| | 12.30|PERCENT| |
| Pedro Martinez | 2567.2 | 0.279 | 38.80|PERCENT| | 8.90|PERCENT| | Bruce Chen | 1164.2 | 0.279 | 35.00|PERCENT| | 12.30|PERCENT| |
| Roger Clemens | 2523.1 | 0.289 | 46.80|PERCENT| | 8.90|PERCENT| | Pedro Astacio | 1779.1 | 0.306 | 39.20|PERCENT| | 12.20|PERCENT| |
| John Smoltz | 2115 | 0.294 | 45.90|PERCENT| | 8.90|PERCENT| | Joey Hamilton | 1232 | 0.305 | 51.30|PERCENT| | 12.20|PERCENT| |
| Carlos Zambrano | 1826.2 | 0.276 | 48.30|PERCENT| | 8.90|PERCENT| | Rodrigo Lopez | 1344.1 | 0.299 | 41.70|PERCENT| | 12.20|PERCENT| |
| Zack Greinke | 1279.2 | 0.308 | 40.80|PERCENT| | 9.00|PERCENT| | Randy Johnson | 2890 | 0.298 | 43.20|PERCENT| | 12.10|PERCENT| |
| Darryl Kile | 1567 | 0.298 | 41.50|PERCENT| | 9.00|PERCENT| | Jamey Wright | 1828.2 | 0.301 | 55.40|PERCENT| | 12.10|PERCENT| |
| Johan Santana | 1908.2 | 0.275 | 37.50|PERCENT| | 9.10|PERCENT| | Greg Maddux | 3097.1 | 0.284 | 51.50|PERCENT| | 12.00|PERCENT| |
| John Lackey | 1876 | 0.309 | 43.20|PERCENT| | 9.10|PERCENT| | Jon Lieber | 2089.1 | 0.301 | 44.70|PERCENT| | 12.00|PERCENT| |
| Scott Kazmir | 1022 | 0.302 | 38.90|PERCENT| | 9.10|PERCENT| | Matt Clement | 1412.2 | 0.289 | 49.20|PERCENT| | 12.00|PERCENT| |
| Miguel Batista | 1901.2 | 0.293 | 49.20|PERCENT| | 9.20|PERCENT| | Chan Ho Park | 1989 | 0.287 | 45.30|PERCENT| | 12.00|PERCENT| |
| Dontrelle Willis | 1221.2 | 0.303 | 45.90|PERCENT| | 9.20|PERCENT| | Ismael Valdez | 1799 | 0.284 | 38.30|PERCENT| | 12.00|PERCENT| |
| Kirk Rueter | 1740 | 0.284 | 46.70|PERCENT| | 9.20|PERCENT| | Rick Reed | 1296.1 | 0.281 | 39.50|PERCENT| | 12.00|PERCENT| |
| Tom Glavine | 2891 | 0.281 | 45.30|PERCENT| | 9.30|PERCENT| | Rick Helling | 1474.1 | 0.278 | 33.80|PERCENT| | 12.00|PERCENT| |
| Frank Castillo | 1114 | 0.299 | 42.10|PERCENT| | 9.30|PERCENT| | Jake Westbrook | 1456.1 | 0.3 | 59.00|PERCENT| | 11.90|PERCENT| |
| Tim Wakefield | 3006 | 0.273 | 39.60|PERCENT| | 9.40|PERCENT| | Jason Marquis | 1675.2 | 0.287 | 50.40|PERCENT| | 11.80|PERCENT| |
| Livan Hernandez | 3121.2 | 0.306 | 41.80|PERCENT| | 9.40|PERCENT| | Jimmy Haynes | 1200.2 | 0.312 | 44.80|PERCENT| | 11.80|PERCENT| |
| Brad Penny | 1871 | 0.301 | 46.20|PERCENT| | 9.40|PERCENT| | Jeremy Bonderman | 1176 | 0.306 | 46.50|PERCENT| | 11.70|PERCENT| |
| Jake Peavy | 1581.1 | 0.286 | 41.40|PERCENT| | 9.50|PERCENT| | Jason Johnson | 1357 | 0.301 | 48.90|PERCENT| | 11.70|PERCENT| |
| Woody Williams | 2120 | 0.276 | 37.70|PERCENT| | 9.50|PERCENT| | Dave Bush | 1141.1 | 0.287 | 42.30|PERCENT| | 11.70|PERCENT| |
| Dustin Hermanson | 1283 | 0.284 | 40.90|PERCENT| | 9.50|PERCENT| | Jeff Suppan | 2512 | 0.297 | 45.70|PERCENT| | 11.60|PERCENT| |
| Tom Gordon | 1147.1 | 0.291 | 45.90|PERCENT| | 9.60|PERCENT| | James Shields | 1227 | 0.299 | 43.80|PERCENT| | 11.60|PERCENT| |
| Joe Blanton | 1243.2 | 0.299 | 44.10|PERCENT| | 9.60|PERCENT| | Elmer Dessens | 1174.1 | 0.3 | 47.70|PERCENT| | 11.60|PERCENT| |
| Russ Ortiz | 1661.1 | 0.286 | 41.70|PERCENT| | 9.60|PERCENT| | Sterling Hitchcock | 1192.1 | 0.301 | 36.60|PERCENT| | 11.60|PERCENT| |
| Aaron Sele | 1898 | 0.315 | 41.50|PERCENT| | 9.70|PERCENT| | Josh Fogg | 1159 | 0.294 | 42.80|PERCENT| | 11.60|PERCENT| |
| Kyle Lohse | 1762 | 0.302 | 41.80|PERCENT| | 9.70|PERCENT| | Oliver Perez | 1111.2 | 0.287 | 32.90|PERCENT| | 11.60|PERCENT| |
| Edwin Jackson | 1079 | 0.311 | 43.30|PERCENT| | 9.70|PERCENT| | Cole Hamels | 1161.1 | 0.28 | 43.30|PERCENT| | 11.50|PERCENT| |
| Roy Halladay | 2531 | 0.292 | 55.10|PERCENT| | 9.80|PERCENT| | Eric Milton | 1582.1 | 0.283 | 30.80|PERCENT| | 11.50|PERCENT| |
Unlike the BABIP chart, there are some great pitchers who saw more than their share of fly balls leave the yard. Those include Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, David Cone, Brandon Webb and Cole Hamels. None except Cone are in the top-25 however, and Johnson played mostly in the Kingdome band box and what's now Chase Field, though it appears he didn't have any particular skill at keeping the ball in the park once it was air-bound.
On the other end, Mariano Rivera is not only first in BABIP but second in HR/FB, and probably if there were a way to look up broken bats per nine, he'd be on top in that stat, too. Other pitchers who grade out well: Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Jason Schmidt, Jered Weaver, Justin Verlander, Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, John Smoltz, Zack Greinke, Johan Santana, Tom Glavine, Jake Peavy and Roy Halladay. In other words, the list of "lucky" guys is populated with far more great pitchers than the list of "unlucky" ones.
The other bias here is probably toward younger pitchers as home run rates have dropped in concert with steroid testing. But Clemens, Glavine, Smoltz and Pedro all make the list nonetheless.
Finally, while Rivera and notably Cain top both lists, it's interesting to note pitchers who are good at one and bad at the other, like Greinke who's been good at preventing home runs, but bad at allowing hits, or Maddux who was good at preventing hits, but not home runs.
Of course, these lists are just rough approximations as to do this properly you'd have to adjust for defense and home park, neither of which is an exact science.