When analyzing data and trends, sample size plays a major factor. With less data the fluctuations become more exaggerated and it's a little more difficult to see just how a particular player is trending. For example, AL-only leagues don't appear to be too popular these days as we only have one draft's worth of data to look at. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to analyze the trends because there aren't any real changes upon which you can rely. Player A should probably be a 15th round choice, but in this one draft we have, someone took him in the 10th round. Saying that Player A is trending up and you should watch him has a little less credibility than you'd like.
That being said, we're still going to look at some of the trends we see in NL-only leagues as we now have six drafts worth of data to examine. No, six drafts is far from being an ideal sample size, but as we move closer to Opening Day, we're going to have to take what we can get. Here's a look at some of the more notable risers and fallers…
Ryan Braun, OF MIL (+516.5|PERCENT|) – OK, so an increase of that size is just ridiculous and now you get the whole sample size thing. But this also allows us to get our third installment of the Tri-Weekly Braun ADP Watch. We've watched him sail up the rankings in mixed leagues from the moment it was announced that there would be no suspension and here is today at the top of the ADP rankings for NL-only leagues passing long-time leader Matt Kemp. Both players offer fantastic combinations of both speed and power, but it seems that the preference right now is Braun. Perhaps Kemp's 2010 struggles are still prevalent in people's minds while Braun has been much more consistent over the last five seasons. As for the failed drug test, it's good to see that people are taking the results with a grain of salt; not that the test was tampered with, but there is more focus on the dozen or so tests he took before and after that one that he apparently passed.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF COL (-27.0|PERCENT|) – With Braun's return to the top of the ADP charts, it's understandable to see the rest of the top ten take a hit in their numbers. However, it's interesting to see that, not only has CarGo dropped in ADP, but he's also been passed by Clayton Kershaw who had a 9.6|PERCENT| increase and Roy Halladay held strong above him in the ranks with absolutely no change. Now again, sample size can be blamed to a certain extent but perhaps fewer people are staying enamored with the Rockies outfielder. His home/road splits, like most other Rockies, are strongly skewed to show how hitter-friendly Coors Field still is, and his nightmarish start to the season last year probably still leaves a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths.
Hanley Ramirez, SS MIA (-12.7|PERCENT|) – The whole world is down on Hanley, but obviously not enough to complete pass him by in fantasy drafts. The downward trend of his production over the last few seasons, coupled with the shoulder issues, has certainly pushed him out of top 10 candidacies. However, given the lack of depth at shortstop and the potential for him to return to form, he's not dropping too far out. Sure, some will pass him up, but that just means that those that draft at the tail end of the first round are going to continue to sit with stacked middle infields. One other thing to note is that this is likely to be the last year of using Hanley at shortstop. Unless there's some form of grandfather clause in your league, keeper league owners will be forced to use him at third next year and could have some tough decisions to make if they also own an elite third baseman.
Craig Kimbrel, RP ATL (+40.5|PERCENT|) – Again, the size of the fluctuation sees a bit high, but actually Kimbrel is getting a lot of props in mixed leagues as well. No one seems concerned with any kind of regression with the Braves fireman and are banking on him to repeat last year's numbers. While the saves are obviously big, it's Kimbrel's K-rate that has most people going after him so early. His 127 strikeouts last season were 28 more than the next closer and well above a significant number of starting pitchers as well.
Pablo Sandoval, 3B SF (+19.8|PERCENT|) – The one they call Kung Fu Panda is looking pretty good this spring. He's been taking off some of that winter weight and has looked strong in the short time that position players have been in camp. His season last year indicated that 2010 was more of an aberration than anything else and he should put up great numbers this year so long as he stays healthy. That's one thing that most people tend to forget. Sandoval broke the hamate bone in his hand early last year and missed a decent amount of time and yet still put up a .315 average and 23 home runs. He brought his ISO up to a .237 mark and appears to be ready to take another step forward. It shouldn't be too long before he overtakes Aramis Ramirez in the third base rankings in both NL-only and mixed leagues.
Jonathan Papelbon, RP PHI (+29.2|PERCENT|) – Papelbon had a decent bounce-back season last year and the move to Philadelphia should simply maintain his value. He jumps up here in NL-only league to third closer off the board, passing John Axford, and deservedly so. Yes, he had a hiccup in 2010, but it was no worse than Heath Bell's drop in K-rate last year or the concern over Brian Wilson's elbow. Papelbon is a top option in NL-only leagues and if the trend to grab closers goes higher, he'll be climbing more than just a round in a two week span.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire,FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.