When Tim Tebow (15 YPA, no turnovers) torched the league's best passing defense, this after being destroyed by the Bills and Chiefs in back to back weeks with a playoff berth seemingly on the line, I thought to myself: "This is why you watch football." The advanced formulas and the presumed probabilities are great for telling us what will happen often, but they can never span the entire gulf between the known and the possible. Tebow all year has operated in that gulf, and no one at this point can convince me they have him pegged. I'm just bummed I didn't get "stuck" with him as the last QB in any of my playoff drafts.
The Patriots are nearly two touchdown favorites, and Vegas gives Denver roughly an 11.4 percent chance to win, based on the money lines (-900/+650). I put that line at about 25 percent, though I might still lay the points with New England. Pats to cover, but Denver to win, both being good values, if you can wrap your mind around that. (Though I reserve the right to change my mind and take Denver with the points).
The Giants were in for a tough fight down 2-0 and the Falcons driving, when Mike Smith punted on fourth and 1 from the Giants' 42 yard line. Troy Aikman justified the decision saying how well the Falcons' defense was playing, and the Giants got the ball at their own 15-yard line. Thirteen plays later, the Giants were up 7-2, and nothing good ever happened for the Falcons the rest of the game. Forget about the 4th and inches plays that Smith went for it and got stuffed - a couple of field goals would not have turned the tide.
I heard some Twitter noise about how this game showed why you should draft Hakeem Nicks over Victor Cruz next season. Really? Based on one game? I've watched every Giants game this year, and I don't know which of the two will be better. I'd give Cruz a better chance to stay healthy, though.
Because I'm a Giants fan, I avoided all Falcons in my playoff pools, and this despite the fact that Roddy White, Julio Jones, Michael Turner and Matt Ryan seemed like huge values later in my drafts. Occasionally being a homer works out.
The Giants defense pitched a shutout Sunday, and given how it played against the Jets and Cowboys the previous two weeks, I feel comfortable saying that unit is better than that of the Packers and Saints. Vegas has Green Bay as a 78/22 favorite (-380/+320), but I'd give New York a 35-40 percent chance to win.
Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson played well Saturday, but the Lions defense was abhorrent beyond comprehension. Pierre Thomas is a tough runner, who's broken tackles in big games before, but Detroit made him look like Earl Campbell, one week after Matt Flynn was Dan Marino. Seriously, dude - make a |STAR||STAR||STAR||STAR||STAR||STAR||STAR| tackle. Please. Someone. Would it kill you to make a |STAR||STAR||STAR||STAR||STAR||STAR||STAR| tackle?
Detroit did get screwed by an early whistle costing them a fumble-return touchdown, though. Why would a ref ever blow that play dead? What happened to erring on the side of caution, letting them play it out, and then giving it a chance to be reviewed? Refs are human, so it's understandable they won't see everything, but never affirmatively meddle with the outcome of a play. Sins of omission are forgivable, sins of commission are not. (This is not unlike the hippocratic oath doctors take: "First, do no harm).
The Saints are an awful team to bet against this year because you can get the backdoor cover (as I did Saturday), and then the Saints will backdoor the backdoor with garbage-time, record-setting TDs. Still, New Orleans is laying 3.5 in San Francisco this week, and I love the 49ers.
The Texans and Bengals were more or less evenly matched, but J.J. Watt's defensive TD turned the tide. Luckily, I had Houston and the over, and I don't have to tell you that a fluky defensive TD (albeit on a great play) by a lineman is about the best possible thing one could hope for.
The Ravens-Texans line moved down to 7.5, and I'm still not sure which way I"ll go. On the one hand, the Texans are strong defensively, and this could be a low-scoring defensive struggle where more than a TD is a lot. On the other, if the Ravens get ahead, it's hard to see T.J. Yates faring well on the road against Baltimore's defense. So it comes down to which side gets the bounces. If it's Baltimore, they roll by 20. If it's Houston, they keep it close all game and cover. And if it's neither? That's what I have to decide.
Incidentally, Marvin Lewis made the stupidest challenge in NFL history Sunday when he questioned a spot that gave the Bengals 3rd and inches rather than 1st and 10. First off, he was wrong, but far worse, it's not even clear that winning the challenge would have been beneficial. I'm not sure what the odds of converting on 1st and 10 are, but I'm positive they're not substantially better than converting on 3rd and inches. And in fact, I'd bet 3rd and inches is actually converted at a higher rate. In other words, it's probably better to be 3rd and inches from the same spot on the field than 1st and 10, and so Lewis wasted a timeout and used up a challenge on something that at best was marginally better and more likely would have made his team worse off.