I was about to close up shop with this blog considering the recent run of bad luck (ahem, picks) but last week proved to be a mark in the plus column. Here's who I took:
The Buffalo Bills +3. The smart money here would have been to take the money line. Lost in this game was that is should have been worse – Dave Rayner missed two makeable field goals in the first half. An interesting discussion with my wife's cousin over the weekend – if the Patriots don't re-sign Wes Welker and the Bills don't re-sign Steve Johnson, would Johnson and the Pats make a good fit? He's arguably had the most success against Revis this season.
The NY Giants +3. As I said last week, the Jets aren't the same team from the past two seasons and would be lucky to make the playoffs. They now need to be "win-Powerball" type of luck to get into the playoffs.
The Bengals – 4. I even won the "Skelton over 2 picks" wager I was willing to take.
Nevada +290. Point spread covered, money line no. Oddly, all the big lines have covered the money line in the Bowl games so far. Last year was a different story.
Dallas +160. The Mavs and Lakers will heat up eventually, right? Bad pun there.
Boston + 4.5. Win - I'm a Celtics fan but I'm even finding Kevin Garnett annoying at this point.
SD +1000 to win the division. Loss. My brother-in-law is a Raiders fan, all he asked for this holiday season is that the Chargers |STAR|don't|STAR| fire Norv Turner. Remember Marty Schottenhiemer got canned for going 14-2.
NY Giants +300 to win the division. This is looking better good than bad but you never know what will happen with either Dallas or New York. It's not a huge compliment but I trust Tom Coughlin more than Jason Garrett.
This week's picks:
Let's start off in the UFC, great card lined up for tonight.
Nate Diaz + 260. He's fighting Donald Cerrone who's won six straight and the public has been betting Cerrone all week, moving this line from +220 to +260. Nate hasn't been submitted or KO'd in his last 14 fights.
Alistair Overeem – 145. I normally don't take the favorite but I gotta think the odds makers built into the line that the public would be on Brock Lesnar. It's been 14 months since Lesnar was in the octagon and he lost that fight. The fight before, Shane Carwin was winning in convincing fashion before he gassed himself out. Overeem hasn't lost in the last four years and made Brett Rogers look like a sissy. His kickboxing should be able to keep Lesnar away from taking him down which is where I'd guess Lesnar wants the fight to go.
Bowl Games:
Wisconsin + 5.5. I know Oregon is good but the last time I checked the Badgers can run the ball. I think they make up for last year's bowl loss.
Oklahoma State -4. I don't think the spread will matter in this game and if you haven't watched OSU play this year, make it a point to do so. It's basically watching video game football and Justin Blackmon is a name you want to learn quickly; I've been talking about him for a year and a half now.
Onto the NFL:
Washington + 8.5. Right now is the time we start trusting the Eagles again and the Redskins are coming off a terrible home loss to Minnesota. Back the men in red.
Tampa Bay +11.5. This is an interesting line considering Atlanta's fate could/should already be decided before kickoff. If that happens, we may not see a lot of Matt Ryan, Roddy White, etc. Like we've seen with the Colts, don't assume the Bucs will lay down.
Dallas/NY Giants under 46. Romo's hand can't be 100 percent and the last time they played there were 71 points scored so theoretically this line should be higher. Naturally, I'll bet the under.
SF + 600 to win the NFC. Yes, I know the Packers reside in the NFC but this could essentially be betting for SF to win two games in a row if they get the bye. They'll be favored in the first playoff game - a home game - and then likely have to go to Green Bay to win the NFC. I can't see that spread being 16 or 17ish which is what a 6:1 dog would be getting.
Thanks for reading and have a great New Year. If you're not already, you can find me on Twitter - @KCPayne26.