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NBA Daily Games Trust Tracker: Thursday

If you are new to this segment, I use the Trust Tracker to publicly track the usefulness – or lack thereof – of the recommendations I made in my most recent Daily Games Cheat Sheet article.

For a more detailed introduction, or to see how I have fared on previous nights, check out my posts from last Thursday or yesterday.

Players are measured according to their p/K (points per thousand dollars spent). Depending on their p/K and the approximate number of points needed to win a 50-50 league that night, players are rated as either "helpful", "competitive", or "harmful".

On a normal night with a full slate of games (roughly 10 or more), you will need to score between 240 - 250 points to win a 50-50 league. On those nights, a p/K of 4.8 or higher is helpful, a p/K between 4.0-4.8 will keep a roster competitive, and a p/K below 3.5 is harmful.

Those are our baseline benchmarks, but it is important to adjust my analysis so that it reflects the night in question. While there is always variation from contest to contest, the scores required to win each one on any given night are usually very closely grouped, regardless of entry cost. Last time I wrote the Daily Games Cheat Sheet, Wednesday, November 5, the scores required to win most contests were between 260-270 (108% of the 240-250 range). As such, I will proportionally increase expectations for this analysis:

  • Scores above 5.2 p/K are helpful
  • Scores between 4.3 and 5.2 p/K keep a roster competitive
  • Scores below 3.8 p/K are harmful

In Wednesday's article (11/5/14, link: ) I recommended 17 players for use:

  • Nine players (53% of those recommended) recorded p/K values above 5.2.
  • Six players (35%) recorded p/K values above 7.5.
  • Two players (12%) recorded p/K values between 4.3-5.2.
  • Three players (18%) recorded p/K values below 3.8.
  • The best recommendation was Garrett Temple, who recorded a p/K of 9.5. He registered the 2nd highest p/K in the league Wednesday night. (If you play traditional season-long fantasy, pick him up now while you still can.)
  • The worst was Evan Turner, who was so bad that I am compelled to issue my first outright apology to anyone who followed that advice, managing only 0.8 p/K. I am sorry. I will locate what part of my recommending methodology led me to recommend him, and I will fix it.

Overall, 65 percent of my recommendations were of competitive value or better, 53 percent were actively helpful, and 18 percent were damaging.

The team that I entered Wednesday on DraftKings was created using only players highlighted in my Wednesday article. It scored 276 points for an overall p/K of 5.52.

Note: I strongly recommend never leaving more than about $500 in salary unused. Occasionally I stretch that and leave as much as $800 or so, but only when I feel very strongly about the players I have, and very poorly about those who cost slightly more. In the screenshot attached to this post, you may notice that I left $1,200 unused. I left so much unused because I wanted the team to be constructed only of players used in the article, and I could not figure out a way to make the salaries and position restrictions combine for a more efficient roster in the time I had before games started.