So you've decided to put your money where your mouth is and joined the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) this year, huh? Well, while they have their ADP resources as well, we here at Mock Draft Central would like to kick in some additional help and, hopefully, help you find your way to the grand prize. If you're a regular over there, then you are already familiar with some of the nuances, but if you're checking it out for the first time, allow me to mention a thing or two. There are 10 active roster spots that include a third wide receiver, a flex spot and a team defense and the scoring is basic PPR. For free agents, each owner gets a set FAAB budget to use up until Week 13. All pretty similar, right? However, unlike your basic fantasy league, the NFFC does not allow trading, and in an effort to balance the talent pool throughout the leagues, has adopted a Third Round Reversal (3RR) in their snake-drafts. For those not familiar with 3RR, a simple explanation is as follows:
Third Round Reversal - Often abbreviated "3RR", this alternative draft method has gained popularity in recent years, mostly because two national contests (NFFC and Rotobowl) have adopted this format. Third Round Reversal looks exactly like a snake draft except that the first two rounds are reversed. The person who drafts first in Round 1 goes last in Round 2 AND Round 3, meaning that the person going last in Round 1 goes first in Round 2 and Round 3 - hence the "flip". After that change in Round 3, it continues to snake down the draft board, just like before, so the twist occurs between Rounds 2 and 3.|STAR|
So with that, let's take a look at some of the ADP rankings that are coming in from some of these NFFC satellite drafts so you have a better idea of what to expect come the big Labor Day Weekend Draft bonanza. The sample size is too small to really see any trending changes, so we'll just have to re-visit down the road. For now though, this seems to be the way things are unfolding:
Top 12 Overall
1. Arian Foster
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Chris Johnson
4. Jamaal Charles
5. LeSean McCoy
6. Roddy White
7. Maurice Jones-Drew
8. Michael Vick
9. Ray Rice
10. Rashard Mendenhall
11. Andre Johnson
12. Darren McFadden
The rankings here aren't much different from those of standard PPR leagues. Some preferential differences between drafting a quarterback with legs like Vick and grabbing an elite running back like Rice or Jones-Drew appear, but the differences in actual ADP are fairly negligible. Just like in NFL Standard leagues, NFFC and PPR league owners still know the value of an elite running back whose team doesn't employ a two-back system. However, it's just too hard to pass up on a value like White who led the entire NFL in both targets and receptions. In a PPR scoring system, he's like fantasy gold.
On the Rise:
At the time of this article's publication, there have only been 54 NFFC satellite leagues to have drafted, so a trending report for such a small sample size would be somewhat pointless. The last ADP trending article for NFL Standard leagues had data from almost 600 leagues, so one person reaching two rounds too soon for a particular player isn't going to skew the data like it would here. But that doesn't mean we can't hypothesize, and with that, it can be legitimately said that Vick could fall a spot or two while Andre Johnson, whose numbers weren't that far behind those of White, could find himself cracking the top ten.
Quarterbacks
Top 10
1. Michael Vick
2. Aaron Rogers
3. Drew Brees
4. Peyton Manning
5. Tom Brady
6. Phillip Rivers
7. Tony Romo
8. Ben Roethlisberger
9. Matt Schaub
10. Josh Freeman
Earliest Taken: #4 Latest Taken: #121
Most QBs Taken: Between #108 and #119 (6 out of 12 picks)
The trending of when most quarterbacks are taken in NFFC leagues mirrors that of NFL standard as opposed to other PPR leagues. It happens a few picks later, but once the top 10 quarterbacks are off the board, it seems that the last few teams yet to hire a gunslinger grab immediately while several go out of their way to get a viable backup. The scoring lends itself to that as they are awarded 6 points for a passing TD with 1 point for every 20 yards of passing. The more common leagues usually award 4 points for a passing TD and 1 point per 25 yards passing. A slight difference, but when you have someone throwing four touchdowns a game, it really adds up.
On the Rise:
Depending on how the preseason goes, you could see increases in ADP for both Kevin Kolb (172.72) and Mark Sanchez(184.67). The connection that Kolb and Larry Fitzgerald should make will be lucrative for their owners, and the presence of Plaxico Burress in New York gives Sanchez a great red zone target with sure hands and good height.
Running Backs
Top 10
1. Arian Foster
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Chris Johnson
4. Jamaal Charles
5. LeSean McCoy
6. Maurice Jones-Drew
7. Ray Rice
8. Rashard Mendenhall
9. Darren McFadden
10. Peyton Hillis
Earliest Taken: #1 Latest Taken: #22
Most RBs taken: Between #1 and #12 (9 out of 12 picks)
Just like in NFL Standard leagues, the running backs come off the board early and often. However, NFFC and PPR leagues have a slightly different cast of characters adorning the top 10 as it's not just about the running back, but the running back who catches a lot of passes as well. Players like McCoy and Hillis jump up in value when you actually get a point per catch, while someone like Michael Turner takes a slight hit in value and drops out of the top ten.
Risers and Fallers:
Darren Sproles (140.31) andLeon Washington (213.48) could find themselves climbing in the ADP rankings over the next couple of weeks. Sproles should actually fit nicely into the Saints offense as the complementary back that Reggie Bush wasn't able to be, and Seahawks coach Pete Carroll wants to give Washington some increased touches and that should happen in the short passing game. Once Washington gets out into open space he can be quite dangerous, so if Seattle really does increase his touches, then his value climbs nicely here.
Keep an eye on the situation in Chicago as the presence of Marion Barber could negatively affect the value of Matt Forte, even in PPR leagues.
Wide Receivers
Top 10
1. Roddy White
2. Andre Johnson
3. Calvin Johnson
4. Hakeem Nicks
5. Reggie Wayne
6. Greg Jennings
7. Larry Fitzgerald
8. Miles Austin
9. Mike Williams
10. Dwayne Bowe
Earliest Taken: #6 Latest Taken: #39
Most WRs Taken: Between #26 and #37 (7 out of 12 picks)
There's no change in any of the top 10 names between NFFC/PPR leagues and NFL Standard leagues. The top targets are the top targets. But what does change, even if it is slight, is the number of wide receivers off the board in the top 75 picks is less her than in Standard leagues. The position itself is incredibly deep in comparison to the others, and with the added points awarded just for making a catch and the need for 3 in your active lineup, wideouts with value become more readily available than say, quality back up running backs. If you're in an NFFC league, once you've got an elite receiver and a solid complement for your starting lineup, the rest can wait while you bulk up elsewhere.
Risers and Fallers:
A receiver's rapport with his quarterback is integral in PPR scoring, so the best we can do this early in the preseason is speculate as to who is going to get the most looks during the season. Some are easy to see, based on past performances, but there are a few situations you'll want to stay on top of as players could be cutting into the number of targets and ultimately, receptions. If you're considering some of these players, you may want to follow the trends and see if you may be reaching too high for a player about to take a hit in value -- Roy Williams possibly pushing Johnny Knox for targets; injury to A.J. Green increasing the need for Jerome Simpson; a decreased running game in Miami affecting the number of double-teams for Brandon Marshall; Michael Sims-Walker getting increased work in St. Louis. A number of these situations could dramatically affect ADP rankings in the coming weeks.
Tight Ends
Top 10
1. Jason Witten
2. Dallas Clark
3. Antonio Gates
4. Vernon Davis
5. Jermichael Finley
6. Jimmy Graham
7. Tony Gonzalez
8. Brandon Pettigrew
9. Greg Olsen
10. Chris Cooley
Earliest Taken: #37 Latest Taken: 200
Most TEs Taken: Between #120 and #131 (6 out of 12)
Some noticeable name changes in the top 10 from NFL Standard leagues as owners look at tight ends based more on the number of targets they see and yards accumulated as opposed to just touchdowns. Clark makes a jump due to the heavy duty passing attack in Indy, as well as the man-crush Peyton Manning has on him as a reliable target, and both Olsen and Cooley, both very good pass-catching tight ends, crack the top ten pushing some of the better blockers down in the rankings. Overall, tight ends are going later in NFFC drafts than in most other leagues, likely due to the fact that there are three wide receiver slots to fill along with a flex position. Once the top five are gone, owners seem to be waiting until the top 10 are gone and then there's a huge rush, much in the way we saw with the quarterbacks.
Risers and Fallers:
Former Raider Zach Millercould see an increase in value with Tavaris Jackson under center while the other Zach Miller in Jacksonville could be poaching looks from Marcedes Lewis. Craig Stevens could be a nice sleeper in Tennessee this season, so hopefully he stays off people's radar and we don't see an increase in his ADP.
|STAR|courtesy of Jeff Pasquino, FootballGuys.com
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports over ten years on a variety of different web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for questions, thoughts, or comments; you can email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.