Finally. Finally, finally, finally.
Christmas in July is here. Hanukkah hath come early. With the players' ratification of the new CBA coming today, the next week may have eight craaaazy nights.
Free agency will tentatively begin tomorrow. As we now begin to amp up for fantasy drafts, we will finally get to see the free agency chaos unravel and make the necessary edits to our draft boards. So in the spirit of the moment and making bold claims, I have compiled the five offseason moves that will most greatly affect the impending fantasy season.
1. Sidney Rice free agent signing
- Rice has the most fantasy upside of any of the pending free agents, regardless of position. A healthy Sidney Rice in the right offense could be a top-5 fantasy receiver. That right offense, however, is not in Minnesota, so his value at the moment is tied to his departure from the Vikes. That could change if the Vikings brings in a talented veteran QB like Donovan McNabb or Kyle Orton. But if they instead decide to roll out rookie Christian Ponder from day one, Rice will be better off signing with a team with an established passer. If he signs with the Bears or Rams he instantly becomes a number one fantasy receiver that can be had for the price of a number two or potentially even a three in most drafts. Translation: he will be a steal. Percy Harvin, however, could well be a bust if Rice skips town, as he'll have to fight constant double teams while dealing with the growing pains Ponder goes through.
2. DeAngelo Williams free agent signing
- Williams' signing is crucial because it could dramatically affect not only his value but that of Jonathan Stewart, Mike Goodson and whatever running back is currently the man of any other team he signs with. If he stays in Carolina, which it seems the Panthers would like, Stewart drops from being a clear-cut number one back to a low-end number two with upside. The upside being if D-Will gets hurt again and misses time. Goodson's worth would initially go down the toilet if Williams stays in town, which could make him a solid value for someone patient enough to draft him late and wait for Williams to go down again so that he can split carries with Stewart. If Williams rejoins his former coach, Jon Fox, in Denver, as has been speculated he might, that would dramatically diminish the value of Knowshon Moreno—again, until D-Will gets hurt. As for Williams himself, the best destination for him to be a fantasy star again would be in Indianapolis, where he may not have to split carries much, if at all, and where he would be more protected from injury by the Colts' pass-heavy offense.
3. Arizona acquiring a QB
- The Cardinals will not go another season under the John Skelton or Max Hall Project. That's a given. And it appears likely that they will try to trade for either Kevin Kolb or Kyle Orton. The move, whatever it ends up being, will upgrade the value of the whole Cardinals offense, with the prime beneficiary obviously being Larry Fitzgerald. With either Kolb or Orton, Fitz will go from being merely a top-15 or 20 receiver to being a top-5 wideout. The running backs in Zona, namely Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, also stand to benefit from an improved passing attack that should prevent teams from consistently stacking the box. Meanwhile the QB that takes over could become a fringe fantasy starter, particularly if it is Orton or Kolb.
4. Falcons offensive line free agents
- This may be one of the most underrated stories in free agency for both its impact on the NFC playoff picture and its substantial fantasy implications. With right tackle Tyson Clabo and guards Harvey Dahl and Justin Blalock, Atlanta may have as many as three offensive line starters enter free agency. Coming off his first Pro Bowl appearance, Clabo will be the priority to resign. If for some reason he elects to sign elsewhere and they lose one or both guards, this could become a serious problem for a Falcons offense loaded with skill talent. While they could potentially replace one of the guards with an upgrade like Buccaneers free agent Davin Joseph or the Ravens' Marshal Yanda, it could still be a problem for line chemistry if there are two or more new faces along the front. Suffice it to say it's a situation worth watching closely for anyone interested in the likes of Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez, all of whom might under-produce behind a revamped line.
5. Jets wide receiver free agents
- The Jets possess two highly skilled wide receivers in Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards. Together with Mark Sanchez these two both had solid seasons in 2010. The likelihood, especially with the Jets being slightly over the salary cap, is that New York will not be able to afford both receivers. From a fantasy perspective, this might actually benefit Holmes and Edwards, who kept each other's numbers in check a bit by splitting targets last year. Holmes appears to be the higher priority for the Jets, as he is the better overall playmaker of the two. If they can sign him and let Edwards walk, Holmes could make a push into the top-15 range for fantasy receivers. Edwards could likewise raise his value if he were to sign with a team employing a better passing attack and more experienced QB, a la the Bears, Saints or God forbid for Jets fans, the Patriots. In the right system he could crack the top-20 for the first time since his monstrous '07 campaign. The backlash to splitting these two talents up though is that Sanchez himself loses value after emerging as a quality fantasy backup last year, and the offense as a whole could take a hit, meaning more defenders in the box to stop Shonn Greene and LaDanian Tomlinson.