A few days ago Derek Van Riper blogged about the team he drafted in a 12-team mixed, industry mock draft on Monday. While many hate to read about other people's drafts, at least listen to my insight as to whom I liked and maybe more importantly who I didn't like that I took.
I had the 10th overall pick, snake style draft. Here's who I took:
1.10 Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL – There's an interesting argument in the first round as to who you should take first: Ryan Braun or Cargo. Sure, Braun dealt with an elbow injury that appeared to be healthy over the second half which likely explained the power outage. Here's what I like about Cargo and I'll apologize in advance as I'm pretty sure some of this is recycled info from my earlier stuff. Cargo's K rate dropped from 26.5|PERCENT| to 20.4|PERCENT| to 19.8|PERCENT| over the last three months while his walk rate climbed from 6.3|PERCENT| to 9.5|PERCENT| to 9.8|PERCENT|. His OPS was over 1.043 each of those three months; his ISO was also higher those three months than the first three. Simply put, he got better as the season went on. I tend to gamble on upside in these situations; Braun is a more safe pick but Cargo has more upside.
2.15 Roy Halladay, P, PHI – I was hoping to spark a SP run, which kind of happened. Four of the next 19 picks were SPs, many of whom went higher than they should have IMO. SPs seemed to go higher than normal overall in the draft and I didn't take another pitcher until Round 10 after grabbing Doc this high.
3.34 Buster Posey, C, SF – I would have waited much longer but this is a two-catcher league. I seemed to miss out on the position scarcity of SS, so I went to the catcher position. Posey was the fourth catcher taken, so know one was sleeping on the position based on this draft spot.
4.39 Adam Dunn, 1B, CHW – Take out the batting average and if I showed you Adrian Gonzalez's and Dunn's power numbers at season's end, is there that much of a difference?
5.58 B.J. Upton, OF, TB – I'd put a lot of money that Upton bats over .260 this year. He hit 18 homers last year and has |STAR|at least|STAR| 42 stolen bases in each of the last three years. What if he gets a lucky BABIP and bats .290 or higher? Would a 25/50 season be out of the question? Of course, we've been saying that for years but I like getting him in this spot.
6.63 Carlos Santana, C, CLE – Again, I missed out on the SS and I have a strong argument that I have the best catcher duo in this draft. To be quite honest, with the DH position in the AL and possible extra ABs, it wouldn't surprise me to see Santana out-produce Buster Posey (although both have cool names).
7.82 Billy Butler, 1B, KC – Remember last year when Butler was a trendy "sleeper" that everyone had to have, expecting the doubles to turn into home runs. While that never came to fruition, I could have taken an average 3B here or grab Butler who I can pencil in for 20+ dingers and a .300 BA which will help the hit I'll likely take from Dunn and Upton. Who knows, maybe this is the year he approaches the 30-homer mark? He improved his batting eye at the plate, increasing his walk rate by almost four percent and improving his K rate. I expect Butler to be a regular on most of my fantasy squads this year.
8.87 Michael Stanton, OF, FLA – I don't think he would have been here at pick 106 so I reached for him. Did he hit 43 home runs and knock in 111 RBI at two levels last year? Yes. Did he strike out 176 times over those same two levels? Yes. Do I think he'll hit over 35 home runs this year? Yes. The batting average will suffer which I'll consider going forward with my picks. The upside is too great to pass here.
9.106 Kelly Johnson, 2B, ARI – Since I missed the middle infield completely until this point, I guess it's time to start addressing those positions. Johnson had a 26/13 season last year while batting .284. At this point in the draft I'd ask for 90 cents on the dollar with him and be happy. Maybe Kirk Gibson has him run more and he approaches 25/20?
10.111 Max Scherzer, P DET – Got off to a rough start, turned it around and was lethal down the stretch. Killer K guy who's 26 and won't have any type innings cap this year. I was happy to grab him here.
11.130 Colby Lewis, P, TEX – Notice how I haven't thought of taking a closer yet? I'd love to know what happened in Japan since Lewis has been lights out since his return despite pitching in Arlington. He has a great lineup around him and struck out almost a batter per inning last year. For the record I was hoping Brandon Morrow was going to be available here but he went 11 picks sooner.
12.135 Madison Bumgarner, P SF – 21 and he has a ring, must be nice. What a lot of people don't realize is that he logged over 200 innings last year so there won't be an innings cap. He plays in a pitcher's park and has a decent offense behind him.
13.154 Aaron Hill, 2B, TOR – My favorite pick of the draft, hands down. I forget things like when my wife asks me to do miscellaneous things around the house so I may be off with the next thought. Wasn't there a Hill vs. Robinson Cano argument last year if I remember correctly? While that seems silly now, a hamstring and wrist injury cost Hill 24 games last year. Despite that, he still hit 26 home runs although he batted only .205. Let's dig deeper. It's a good thing he hit those home runs or his .196 BABIP would have brought down the average even more. It doesn't take Wilson the computer to figure out Hill will return to a respectable bating average. Therefore the RBI will rise as will the runs. His quad injury should be remedied by Opening Day and there is little concern for the home runs. Look at his 2010 (36-homer) campaign and last year:
2009 – 682 ABs, 36 home runs, 1/18.9 ABs
2010 – 528 ABs, 26 home runs, 1/20.3 ABs
Not too big of a difference even though he was injured and seemed unlucky at the plate. If he stays healthy, there are 30 homers in store for this year, IMO. He's an especially good bargain when you consider he's going 100 spots lower than Dan Uggla.
14.159 Manny Ramirez, OF, TB – I try not to buy into the "feel good, he's in great shape" stories and there's this type of a story coming out of Tampa about Manny. He'll help what I'm lacking in batting average and slated to hit cleanup for the Rays which should provide plenty of RBI opportunities. This is still too low for him if you ask me.
15. 178 Brian Matusz, P, BAL – I've written at length about Matusz and will look for him to carry over his last season's second-half success (7-3, 3.63 ERA while holding opponents to a .228 BA) to this year. While I understand the AL East is no picnic to pitch in, I was surprised he was still here this late in the draft.
16. 183 Brandon Lyon, P, HOU – All last year I preached patience with Lyon, pointing out that he had a three-year deal while Matt Lindstrom was only signed for one. Lyon was dominant over the second half going 19-for-20 in save opportunities while holding a 2.56 ERA. He walks guys too much but at this point in the draft I needed to go after a couple of closers.
17. 202 Alex Gonzalez, SS, ATL – I'm not thrilled about his move to Atlanta and in retrospect, I probably should have gambled on an upside guy here like Alcides Escobar. Gonzalez isn't going to do much in the way of batting average but 20 home runs isn't out of the question.
18. 207 Chipper Jones, 3B, ATL – I'm not in love with this pick and when given an over/under on how many games Jones will play in, I'd go under at 110. That being said, it's only a 12-team league and with a guy like Jose Lopez sitting on the waiver wire, there's some solid replacement value if, or likely when, Larry Wayne goes down.
19. 226 Fernando Rodney P, LAA – Has he had an ERA north of 4.23 in each of the last four seasons? Check. Has he had a WHIP north of 1.466 in each of those seasons? Check. Was this a horrible, terrible, laughable pick on my part even this late in the draft? Check. Leo Nunez was sitting there for the taking too (which I didn't realize at the time) and I would have rather gambled on him.
20. 231 Adam Lind, DH, TOR – He'll eventually gain 1B eligibility but wasn't he considered a top-30 player heading into last year after his 2009 campaign (.305, 35 home runs, 114 RBI)? His ADP is around 170 and if he can cut down on last year's K rate (25.3|PERCENT|), a nice rebound should be in store.
21. 250 Justin Masterson, P, CLE – Here's another pitcher I've written at length on. A solid finish to the season coupled with a year of experience under his belt should make him a nice sleeper this year. Masterson isn't going to be a Cy Young candidate but an ERA under 4.00 with 12-15 wins wouldn't surprise me.
22. 255 Garrett Jones, OF, PIT – The Nelson Cruz of the National League took a step back last year, struggling mightily against southpaws. He'll likely be part of a platoon with Matt Diaz which should help the batting average and I'm comfortable penciling in something near a 20/10 season.
23. 274 Homer Bailey, P, CIN – The pedigree is there and people seem to forget he'll turn just 25 in a couple of months. The 8.26 K/9 rate is something to note and both his FIP (3.73) and xFIP (3.91) suggest he pitched better than his 4.46 ERA indicates. At this point it was a coin flip to see if I should go with Bailey or Bud Norris; while Bailey's home park won't help him the superior lineup gave him the edge.