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Week 7 Observations

  • Apparently Terrell Owens was voted the league's most overrated player by his peers according to an SI poll. It's therefore impossible that he's actually overrated. The most overrated player must be someone no one thinks is overrated, i.e., one who everyone mistakenly thinks is either underrated or rated fairly.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick is a former seventh round pick out of Harvard, i.e., he's a nobody. But Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Kurt Warner were nobodies once, too. I don't know whether he'll keep it up, but I'm not dismissive of the possibility, either. Fitzpatrick had 23 starts coming into this year, which is about when quarterbacks typically start to "get it," he leads the NFL in TD percentage (TD's per pass attempt) at 8.6 (hat tip: Mike Salfino) and is second in QB rating only to Peyton Manning at 102. And this is despite playing against the Jets and at BAL in two of his four games.
  • Receiver production is so volatile over the course of the year, you almost never know what you have until it's too late. I'm quite sure that a greater percentage of receiver production is left on owners' benches every year than that of any other position.

    Consider: in 2006, Chad Ochocinco - then Chad Johnson - had no 100-yard games and only two TDs over the season's first eight weeks. This after a 1432-yard, nine TD season in 2005. In fact, Johnson had 1274 or more yards and nine or more TDs in each of the three previous years. Then in Week 9, he went for 11-260-2. In Week 10, he 6-190-3 and in Week 11 he went 7-123-0. By season's end he had 1369 yards and seven TDs. Miles Austin had 81 yards and one TD over the season's first four games last year. That's a pace for 324 yards and four TDs.

    This year is no different. Kenny Britt just went off for 225 and 3 in 40 minutes, and Lee Evans torched the Ravens for 105 and 3. Dwayne Bowe was waiver-wire fodder two weeks ago, but has since gone 9-189-4 over the last two games. I haven't given up on Robert Meachem, Michael Crabtree, Dez Bryant or Steve Smith (CAR). And I certainly would not think of giving up on Randy Moss or Larry Fitzgerald, no matter how bad the current situation looks.

    I'm also scooping up the next receiver that gets in trouble for partying too hard. First it was Braylon Edwards who's been a reliable big play threat for the Jets ever since he got a DUI, and now Britt goes off after being part of a bar brawl.

  • As badly as the Bills were cheated in overtime by the Ray Lewis strip occurring well after the ballcarrier's progress had been stopped, the Dolphins suffered an injustice far worse. Ben Roethlisberger fumbled short of the goal line, and it's almost certain the Dolphins recovered the ball in the end zone for a touchback which would have sealed the win. But because the refs foolishly never bothered to rule on the possession (after they erroneously ruled Roehtlisberger got in), they put the ball on the half-yard line, allowing the Steelers to kick the easy game-winning field goal. How is that a remotely fair compromise? Fair would have been giving the Steelers the ball on their own 35 with two minutes left.
  • Love that Bill Belichick went on 4th and 1 again to seal the game in San Diego. Of course, the backlash upon failing is much more mild this time because it didn't cost them the game. Which is pretty stupid since subsequent events have no bearing on the correctness of the decision. Here's a good analysis on whether it was the right call.
  • Sunday's game ends any hope Kevin Kolb had of keeping the job this season.
  • Kickers are hitting a lot of long-range field-goals this year. There were 11 FGs from 53-plus in all of 2009, while there are already 12 though just seven weeks. I had thought the overall conversion percentage would be much better in 2010, too, with all the disasters that happened in 2009 (Shaun Suisham, Nick Folk, Kris Brown), but it's only 81.7|PERCENT| to 81.3|PERCENT|. In 2008, it was 84.5|PERCENT|, incidentally.
  • I feel sorry for Jay Cutler. His offensive line is not only the worst in the league, it's the worst I've seen for some time, and his receiving corps is below average.
  • The Chargers are the world champions of underperforming their key stats. They're No. 1 in yards per play at 6.3, AND No. 1 in YPP allowed with 4.2! They've allowed 4.7 net yards per passing attempt (1st) and 3.5 yards per rush (3rd). They average 7.6 net yards per passing attempt (1st) and 4.1 yards per rush (17th). They're the best offensive and defensive team in the NFL, and they're 2-5!

    Granted, they've played an easy schedule that included Jacksonville, Arizona and Oakland, but the games in Seattle, St. Louis and Kansas City don't look so easy, and of course they just lost to the overachieving Pats on Sunday. The Chargers desperately need a head coach, so Norv Turner can return to the role of offensive coordinator.

  • If the Panthers had stuck with Matt Moore (who threw for 308 yards Sunday on 7.5 yards per attempt), they might well be 3-3 instead of 1-5, and very much in the thick of things in the NFC. That they did not pains me greatly considering I have them at 12:1 (and another ticket at 8:1) to win the NFC South and 175:1 to win the Super Bowl.