Matt Holliday winds up in the same lineup as Albert Pujols and the Oakland A's wind up with prospects no worse than they got from their winter deal with Colorado. It seems that everybody might actually come away with value in this deal.
St. Louis has to be favored to win the National League Central after obtaining Matt Holliday from Oakland. Think of the damage that lineup will inflict with Pujols, Holliday and Ryan Ludwick in the middle of the batting order. In his first start for St. Louis, all Holliday did was have a four hit game, drive in a run and steal a base. Welcome back to the National League Mr. Holliday. In that 8-1 win over the Phillies, Pujols had a hit and scored two runs. Ludwick had two hits, scored a run and drove in a run. Look for more of that as the season continues.
The Cardinals will have the first crack at retaining Holliday after the season. Since he's in his "walk year", Holliday will have most of the upper tier of clubs to select from when his free agency kicks in. Don't rule out the Cardinals as an option to retain his services. Why? Because Holliday might really like hitting in that batting order and St. Louis might really like the results his presence might mean going forward. Of course, Scott Boras will have something to say about that as will the Major League Players Association.
What did St. Louis part with to get Holliday? The key to the deal was 22 year old left-handed hitting 3B/1B Brett Wallace. There are some scouts who believe Wallace is ready for the big leagues. Others question his defensive ability and his ability to excel against major league quality pitching. Of course, that won't be known until he lands in the big leagues. For now, he remains a quality piece of the puzzle for Oakland. His history indicates he should be a good big league hitter with power. At Arizona State University, Wallace was named the Pac !0 Player of the Year in 2007. He was drafted in the first round as #13 overall in 2008. He hit well in the minor leagues. But. The problem to date has been defense. He hasn't really shown that he is capable yet of playing day in and day out at third base, his normal position. He isn't near "major league ready" from a defensive standpoint. So the A's got a promising bat and a work in progress defensively as the cornerstone of the deal for Holliday. Wallace was clearly a very important player in the Cardinals farm system. What else did the A's get?
Shane Peterson is a left-handed hitting second round draft pick with the capability of playing outfield and//or first base. By all projections, it appears that his role might be as a platoon player, hitting from the left side of the plate. Peterson is seen as a contact hitter with good plate discipline and a good knowledge of the strike zone. He hasn't developed power, but he's only 21. In 230 at-bats in A ball for example, Peterson hit only one home run. Power is often very late in developing and it can be difficult to project. To play a corner outfield position or first base, it would seem Peterson has to develop some pop in his bat.
Clayton Mortenson is a tall right-handed starting pitcher out of Gonzaga University. He was a first round sandwich pick in 2007. It seems as though Mortenson struggled a bit as the level of his competition increased. He has pitched at all 4 minor league levels for St. Louis. His fastball isn't overpowering, generally sitting at 90-92. If he can continue to induce hitters to beat the ball into the ground with good sink and late downward life on his pitches, he will improve and open some more eyes. Obviously, Oakland must have liked him enough to include him in the deal. It remains to be seen what his role will be for the A's, as they could use him in relief.
To me, the most important aspect of the Holliday deal is that it at least equals the quality of the trade that brought Holliday to Oakland in the first place. If you remember, that deal saw relief pitcher/closer Huston Street, left-handed starter Greg Smith and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez go to Colorado.
Really, only Street has had a meaningful impact on the Rockies. That is not to say that Smith and Gonzalez won't pan out. They may. But Wallace may have equal value to Oakland as Street does to Colorado and the other players are all anyone's guess. Like most trades that involve prospects, the results will not be known for at least two more years.
Oakland didn't take much of a risk, knowing that it would probably be impossible for them to retain Holliday. St. Louis got the big bat they needed and the A's got some prospects to continue to stock their organization. Oakland can use those as chips for other players in trade or develop them for their own blg league club. But when it's all said and done, Albert Pujols is probably the biggest winner.