Here are a few players who not only disappointed last year, but for whom the bottom completely fell out. They'll be available at a major discount and overall will probably wind up being good values, i.e., if you were to buy into the "disasters" fund, it would probably do better than the "studs" fund, given their respective prices. And I'm not talking about Paul Konerko or Robinson Cano here - I'm talking about catastrophes like Rich Hill and Andruw Jones.
To emphasize - most of these players will |STAR|not|STAR| pan out, but out of the 16 listed here, if five have solid seasons and one has a great season, then your odds are pretty good given the price:
Rich Hill - it wasn't just that he had a control meltdown in the majors - he couldn't throw a strike to save his career in the minors or the Venezuelan League, either. He's probably done, but in Baltimore if he shows signs of life, he's got a chance to be in the rotation.
Andruw Jones - when a drop-off this precipitous in one's early 30s happens, following a two-year period in which the player hit 92 home runs, you can't help but think it must be the lack of 'roids. Those other 103 players besides ARod weren't all Manny Alexanders and Alex Sanchezes. Either way, Jones won't turn 32 until April, he's lost 25 pounds, and there's a chance he'll be playing in Arlington.
Jeff Francoeur - .232/.294/.359 is okay for a gold glove catcher, perhaps, but for a corner outfielder it's career threatening. But Francoeur is still just 25 years old, and he was able to perform at a serviceable level in his early 20s in the majors in seasons past. Get him for $1, and hope it was a latent injury rather than a steroid hangover
Travis Hafner - Hafner's contract will ensure that he gets a chance - assuming his body cooperates. If his shoulder is okay (and we should know more in spring training), his upside is worth the risk. (Hafner, too, is just 31, though, he also strikes me as a likely roids case.
Melky Cabrera - anyone who puts up a .283/.362/.393 line as a 21-year old center fielder in Yankee Stadium with a 56:59 BB:K ratio is either lying about his age, on PEDs or a legitimate prospect. While Cabrera regressed last year, I'm of the "if you display a skill, you own it" camp (hat tip to Ron Shandler for coining that phrase). Cabrera still has a decent chance to win the Yankees center field job, so he's worth a look.
Kosuke Fukudome - Fukudome's first season in the majors started off well enough with an .837 April OPS and stellar defense in right field. But his production declined as the year went on - he posted a meager .217/.314/.326 line in 175 at-bats after the All-Star break and was eventually benched. Heading into 2009, Fukudome's lucrative four-year deal ensures him some at-bats, though with Milton Bradley's arrival, Fukudome will likely get them in center field in the bigger half of a platoon with Reed Johnson. Given that Fukudome managed 10 homers and 12 steals despite his miserable second half and that he will hit in one of the National League's best lineups, he's probably a good gamble on draft day.
Kenji Johjima - a solid hitting catcher his first two years in the league, Johjima struggled with a .233 BABIP last year and now finds himself sharing time with Jeff Clement. But Clement's not known for his defense, and in any event, catchers sometimes take longer to develop as hitters. Clement will be the trendier pick, but Johjima will be the better value.
Pudge Rodriguez - Pudge is 37 and yet to sign, but before his abysmal showing with the Yankees, he was doing what he always did with the Tigers last year - putting up passable fantasy stats despite less useful real life ones. If he catches on somewhere, he's durable and likely to hit for a better average than most backstops.
Andy Marte - the former big-time prospect finally got a chance last year, and he blew it - going .221/.268/.315 in 236 at-bats. He was designated for assignment by the Indians today which means there's a good chance he'll catch on elsewhere. Not too many hitters who rake in the high minors at age 20 fail to develop, and Marte is still just 25 years old.
Mike Lamb - this is a guy with an .820-plus OPS in 2006 and 2007, who could see the better half of the platoon at third base for the Brewers. At 33, he's probably not washed up, and his terrible year with the Twins should drive down his price.
Bobby Howry - His command was fine, but those fly balls just sailed out of the park on him at an alarming rate. That's likely to be less of a problem as his luck normalizes and his park (San Francisco) gets bigger. Plus Brian Wilson's command problems could open the door for Howry as a possible closer.
Aaron Heilman - a bad knee give him command problems last year, but his arm was fine as he missed bats at a career-best rate. He'll compete for the Cubs' fifth-starter job and he's a dark horse to close if Carlos Marmol's long ball tendencies and somewhat spotty command relegate him to setup duty.
Eric Gagne - he's probably toast, but he's just 33 and will have a chance to win a job as a setup man - if that happens, who knows? Closers have a lot of lives, and managers love to turn to an experienced hand.
Jeremy Bonderman - he looked healthy last week in voluntary workouts, and he's working on a third pitch. His numbers were terrible last year before he got hurt, but that could have been related to his injury (he had a rib removed to alleviate a blood clot).
Homer Bailey - Normally, a young pitcher wouldn't show up on a list like this as struggles at the major-league level are to be expected (that's why Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes are absent). But Bailey even got pounded in the minors. That said, it's very hard to predict when the light will go on for a pitcher, and when you're dealing with a talent like Bailey, the upside is worth it. He's likely a few years away, but he'll get a shot to win the fifth starter's job, and I'd rather gamble on that than fill my last NL-only roster spot with a Jeff Suppan type.
Gary Sheffield - he's 40 years old and was bad last year, but look what he did at age 38 - 25 homers/22 steals. A .237 BABIP killed his average in 2008, but he showed some power in the second half, and he even stole nine bases. If his shoulder's healthy, he could go 20/10/.260.