Back in the day, fantasy hoops may have been my favorite roto endeavor. I loved the Fat Levers of the NBA, stat stuffers who could earn more value in a five-category league than some of the highest scorers in the league. As my interest in pro hoops waned over the years, I begged off fantasy.
I started getting back into following the NBA three years ago. So when a buddy invited me to be in his six-category fantasy league (no percentages) for the 2006-2007 season, I jumped at the chance. I've done pretty well since joining (two second-place finishes in the first two years), but I'm still working out some kinks. The two biggest challenges I'm trying to master:
1) Timing
2) Context
In fantasy baseball, where I feel like my experience and expertise matches up with most people, I do a good job in both areas.
I'm a hyper-aggressive trader, and routinely set records for the earliest deals in the various leagues I'm in (I once made a trade with John Hunt in LABR less than 24 hours after the draft--turned out to be a very good one too). By recognizing the value of early trading, and more broadly having a good sense for when to trade away and when to trade for certain players, I've been able to make for some pretty average drafts over the years. That's the timing element.
I also pay close attention to factors like bullpen support (in deciding on starting pitchers), park effects (looking beyond Coors vs. non-Coors in picking hitters) and lineup position (my favorite example is Tony Batista driving in 110 runs in 2004 while having an absolutely terrible offensive season, thanks to his durability, the high OBPs of the guys in front of him, and his entrenchment in the cleanup spot). That's context.
In fantasy hoops, I lost my ability to spot the optimal time to trade for or trade away players. I also lost my ability to pinpoint the impact that changing situations can have on a player.
The latter problem caused me to make a big mistake in this year's auction. My goal was to bid to the moon on the two best non-keepers on the board, LeBron and Wade. The problem was that my buddy the Commish had the same idea, and more money than I had. He got 'em both. Losing out on the two A+ guys meant I had to shift gears and target A- players. But I whiffed in that department, due to context. In bidding $40 for Shawn Marion ($300 budget, 15-man roster, 12 starters), I gave an over-30 player too much credit for past performance. Marion was both past his physical prime and playing on a Miami Heat team that lacked a pure point guard to dish him the ball in the right spots and an up-tempo style that would get him frequent wide-open looks.
With every poor-shooting, non-Matrixy game that Marion posted early this season, my frustration with him, and my own draft gaffe, grew. I reached the point of no return during Thanksgiving weekend in Vegas, when Marion airballed a three-pointer so badly that I thought it might land on the free-throw line. I HAD to trade this guy.
But wait, there was more. I'd also drafted Samuel Dalembert and Tyson Chandler as my #2 and #3 centers. Both were horrendously underachieving, Dalembert because of his general flakiness as well as the Elton Brand acquisition, Chandler because...well who the hell knows what's wrong with him. With Andris Biedrins entrenched as my #1 center (godsend!) and the viable Udonis Haslem available on waivers, I was eager to dump both my stiffs.
The key then was convincing someone to buy low on not one but two players: Marion the roto superstar who's bound to break out soon (or so I tried to convince people) and Dalembert and/or Chandler, the blocked shot machines who'd surely perk up in other categories very soon (yeah, right).
Another league member announced that he was offering points in exchange for rebounds and blocks. Specifically, he was peddling Ben Gordon and Kevin Durant. I'd had my fill of Gordon last season, when he averaged a reasonable but unspectacular 18.6 ppg and added 2.0 threes a game, but did almost nothing else to justify his roto existence and missed 10 games for good measure. Durant offered a world of talent, and his lousy FG|PERCENT| didn't matter in our league, his lack of conscience simply translating into more points. But Durant rarely passed the ball and didn't rack up as many steals or blocks as you'd expect from someone so rangy and so athletic.
Still, Gordon's just 25, while Durant's merely scratching the surface of his potential. If you had to bet on one of the two duos to improve as the season wore on, you'd have to go with Gordon and Durant over the 31-year-old Marion and Chandler, just 26 but falling into the fantasy abyss.
Taking advantage of a D.J. Augustin hot streak (a function of opportunity as much as talent, due to Bobcat injuries), I added the rookie point guard to the deal, sweetening it enough for the offer to be accepted: Shawn Marion, Tyson Chandler and D.J. Augustin and Ben Gordon (with the added bonus of Gordon being nicely priced at $14 for keeper purposes).
So far, score one for timing and context.
Marion continues to look awful in Miami, averaging just 12 points, 8 boards, 1.2 assists, 1 steal and 1.6 blocks a game in his five games since the trade--with just one three-pointer made in four attempts during that time. It's not going to get any better either, folks, at least not unless Marion gets traded to Golden State or something. Michael Beasley's going to get more playing time as the season goes on, Marion's not even trying three any more, and he's got a history of sulking to boot. Chandler played all of 45 minutes in two games combined before getting two straight DNPs (stiff neck + general suckitude). Augustin continued to mix flashes of greatness with erratic play. I'd like to have him on my squad, but it's a small price to pay to be rid of Marion and Chandler forever (I released Dalembert while I was at it).
Meanwhile, both Durant and Gordon have caught fire. In six games since the trade, Durant's averaging 25.5 ppg. More importantly, he's showing signs of developing an all-around arsenal, going for double-digit rebounds in three of those six games, with a six-3s performance against roto enablers Golden State, three games with multiple blocks and a five-steal effort against Dallas. Gordon likewise has filled multiple categories: 23.3 ppg, 4 rpg, 4.8 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.8 bpg and a ludicrous 3.8 spg in four games since the trade.
I'm still not going to win the league this year. As expected, LeBron + Wade looks likely to equal championship, with the team that drafted both well out in front of the rest of the league. But I've got a shot at a third straight runner-up finish. More importantly, I'm getting quicker at identifying trends that the best fantasy hoops players can spot in a hurry.
The next step in the timing and contet quest: Avoid drafting Shawn Marion altogether.