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Week 17 Observations

I was in Rome Sunday night with a 7:00 am flight this morning, so I caught what I could of the early games before dinner, prepared to check in on the late games (starting 10 pm Rome time) and head to bed shortly thereafter - once the Giants had let in their backups and conceded the game. But that never happened, so I wound up watching the entire Giants game and went to bed at 1:30 for a 4:40 wake-up alarm. The Lions-Packers game was still in the fourth quarter when we got into our 5:00 am cab.

20161231_123500_resized20161231_154428_resized (Gelato place where I had three scoops. Above, one of world's seven wonders.)

• The Giants defense has now made Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins look terrible three of the last four weeks, and that's without Jason Pierre-Paul (who could be back this week) and Janoris Jenkins (for part of it.) I'll give them a pass for the Eagles game which was a Thursday night contest on the road.

• This Giants team sets up a lot like it did in 2007 and 2011, with a surging defense filled with playmakers like Pierre-Paul, Jenkins, Landon Collins, Olivier Vernon, Damon Harrison and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was the architect of the 2007 run when Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck ran roughshod over the league's elite teams. Maybe we'll have an Eli-Brady III. Of course, the Packers look a lot like the team that ran the table in 2010 and beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl, so Rodgers-Roethlisberger II is just as plausible.

• Eli Manning had another poor game, and while he's never been a great quarterback, I'm not sure he has it in him to play four competent and error-free games like he did during those runs. Then again, he also never had an Odell Beckham to drag him forward.

• If the Redskins had won, the winner of the Lions-Packers game would have been in the playoffs, the loser out. But if they tied, both would make it, and Washington would have been out. With the Packers as 3.5-point favorites - ~62 percent to win - it would have made perfect sense in that case for both to kneel down on every play for a 0-0 tie, giving the Packers the No. 3 seed, the Lions the No. 6 and not risking the loss. They never would have done it, and the Redskins loss made it moot, but it would have plainly been the right strategy.

• Rex Beasthead torched the stout Ravens defense for 119 yards and two scores. It'll be interesting whether they stick with Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard next year.

• In Steve Smith's final game, Dennis Pitta got 16 targets and Smith only five.

• If you're the Texans, do you start Brock Osweiler, a concussed Savage or a concussed savage against the Raiders this week?

• Gus Bradley must have been the worst coach of all time, given how much better the Jaguars have played since his firing. You'd never have known based on his 14-48 record alone.

• If you're interested in a playoff cheat sheet, click here.

• I didn't know who Corey Grant was, so I don't have anything useful to add about him.

• Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson played Weeks 16-17 like 1-15 never happened.

• Frank Gore had a great year for a 33-year old with that kind of mileage, but 3.9 YPC and 7.3 yards per catch are below average. I'd be surprised if he were back.

• If Michael Floyd ever got integrated into the offense, it would be unfair. He's 6-3, 225 and runs a 4.40 40.

• Tom Brady would be MVP most other years, but Matt Ryan has been historically good, and the Falcons got a first-round bye.

• Jerick McKinnon was the sharps' preseason breakout pick, and he quietly delivered, albeit on many benches, down the stretch. From Weeks 12 to 17, he had 31 catches for 212 yards, 254 yards on the ground and three scores. Prorated over 16 games, that's 1,243 YFS, 83 catches and eight scores.

• Sam Bradford set the single-season mark for completion percentage this year at 71.6, but did so on 7.0 YPA. That's because his yards per completion was 30th in the league. Basically, he completed a lot of low-risk, dump-offs for not much yardage, and as a result the team was 23rd in points per game, including its five defensive and special teams TDs. I'd give a healthy Teddy Bridgewater one more shot next year if I were the Vikings.

• Jordan Howard gets it done every week.

• Why were the EJ Manuel Bills laying 3.5 on the road again?

• Bilal Powell has to be the Jets starting back next year.

• There's certainly no QB controversy in Dallas for the second string job. Tony Romo has it locked up over Mark Sanchez.

• Zach Ertz really beautified his year-end stats, getting half his TDs, 13 catches and 139 meaningless yards.

• The Browns pulled off a miracle loss in overtime, securing the No. 1 pick. RGIII looks like 2015 Michael Vick.

• I watched the final drive of the Tampa/Carolina game. I can't think of anything interesting to say about it.

• Drew Brees quietly threw for the fourth most yards all time this year. It was also his fifth 5,000 yard season. Other 5,000 yard seasons were had by Matthew Stafford, Dan Marino, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning (one each.) He's like Sammy Sosa blasting 60 homers seemingly every year.

• Michael Thomas went 92-1,137-9 in 15 games on 9.4 YPT, putting up one of the best rookie receiving seasons of all time. The problem is he had only 121 targets, as Brees spreads the ball around so much. Thomas finding his fantasy ceiling depends on getting to ~150 targets, a tough mark to reach in this system.

• The Falcons offense is so well balanced now that Matt Ryan isn't forcing the ball to Julio Jones 20 times per game. Devonta Freeman reminds me of peak Ray Rice (that's a good thing.)

• The Raiders offense never had a chance with a third-string QB in Denver.

• It's amazing how bad the Rams are. The Cardinals lost their best player early in the game and beat them 44-6 in their building. It's a disgrace to the city of Los Angeles, and if St. Louis won't take them back, they should fold the team to preserve the city's brand.

• Todd Gurley had an Eddie George-off-the-aging-cliff type season. We presume the talent from his pedigree and 2015 debut, but Trent Richardson looked decent as a rookie too. Chances are Gurley bounces back, but I doubt I'm taking him over players like Jay Ajayi and Jordan Howard next year.

• David Johnson seems to have merely sprained his MCL and should be 100 percent healthy next year. I didn't realize Larry Fitzgerald led the league in receptions. That's 216 over the last two years and 1,125 for his career, third all time behind only Jerry Rice and Tony Gonzalez. He's only a borderline top-10 all time WR, though, certainly behind the likes of Rice, Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, and I'd take Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham (so far) and Julio Jones over him too.

• I had Andre Williams as one of my deep sleepers this year, and he delivered big in Week 17 with 87 rushing yards.

• Antonio Gates tied Tony Gonzalez' TE TD record at the expense of a wide open Hunter Henry. Gates intends to return next year, sending Henry down the Ladarius Green career path.

• The Seahawks defense isn't where it needs to be to make a deep run in the playoffs. I can't imagine it's only the absence of Earl Thomas, but I remember one year when the Steelers were night and day with and without peak Troy Polamalu in the lineup.

• Maybe Colin Kaepernick has a future. I speculated earlier in the year that his protest drew so much heat being a starting QB by contrast might feel like a relief. Whether or not that had anything to do with it, Kaepernick has 6.8 YPA despite throwing to terrible receivers and a 16:4 TD:INT ratio, while averaging 6.8 yards per rush.

After Sunday night's game, Rodgers has an 18:0 TD:INT ratio with 8.4 YPA since Week 11. He's been the league MVP from that point forward, but it's a full season award.