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Week 16 Observations

We've spent the last four days in Hay on Wye, Wales, so the Christmas Eve slate of games started at 6 pm local time, just after we had returned from the pub and our late afternoon meal. It was also our hostess' birthday, so we sat around the dining table sipping wine, cider and (in my case) gin and eating from an overstocked cheese plate. I had my laptop on in the living room, streaming the red-zone channel, and occasionally I'd break away to catch an update and some live action.

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(Christmas Eve lunch at the pub. Above, a walk in the countryside, grazing sheep and a street in town.)

• Sammy Watkins finally proved he's all the way back. Now you can use him in Week 17! Receivers are hard to peg even when healthy, and sometimes you just have to gamble. I'm sure many did not given his Week 15 dud.

• So it turns out the tight end to own in the playoffs was Charles Clay.

• It's amazing the Dolphins survived perfectly well with Matt Moore and are headed to the playoffs now. They did have an assist from Rex Ryan who made two astonishingly bad calls in overtime, one the sweep to Reggie Bush that lost eight yards after the Bills had driven deep into Dolphins territory, and the other punting on 4th-and-2 from their 41 with four minutes left , i.e., playing for a tie even though a tie would officially eliminate them from the playoffs. Ryan was likely to be canned either way, but the necessity of the move could not have been more evident.

• Jay Ajayi rushed for another 200-plus yards against the Bills, making him 60 for 420 and two TDs against them on the year, at seven yards per carry. I haven't looked it up, but I'd bet he's the only player to go for 200-plus twice against the same team in the same season.

• The Bills are crazy if they don't pick up Tyrod Taylor's option this offseason. In addition to passing for 329 yards, three TDs and no picks, while rushing for 60 more, he apparently crashed his Mercedes on the way to the game.

• Adam Gase might be one of the better coaches in the league already.

• After a dud that knocked many of his owners out of the playoffs in Week 15, Kirk Cousins rubbed it in with two rushing TDs and 30 yards on the ground in addition to 270 yards passing and another TD Sunday.

• Matt Barkley is an interesting wild card for next year, but he's now had eight picks in his last two games.

I'd bet the Chargers are the first team in NFL history to lose with a plus-nine sack differential. And losing to an 0-14 team on blocked and missed FGs on the game's final two drives is simply who the Chargers are as a franchise. There's no point in analyzing or critiquing it. Acceptance is the only rational course here.

 The only skill player of note was Antonio Gates who got one score closer to the tight-end record. He now trails Tony Gonzalez 111 to 110.

 Aaron Rodgers had another monster game, shredding what was left of the once stout Vikings defense. Jordy Nelson's big game puts him as the top non-PPR WR, barely outpacing Antonio Brown. In PPR Nelson clocks in at No. 2, not bad for a 31-year old coming off an ACL tear.

• Adam Thielen and Sam Bradford provided impressive bench and waiver wire scoring in many leagues. Thielen is an interesting prospect for next year - he's 6-2 and runs a 4.49 40, though Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph will also have significant roles on what has traditionally been a run-first, defensive-oriented team. Maybe it's time to open it up and see if Teddy Bridgewater can become more than game manager.

 I can't imagine how much money Vegas has lost on the 12-3 ATS Patriots this year. The line in the Jets game was 16.5, and I have to think the public would have (correctly) been on the Pats up to 20 at least.

• LeGarrette Blount has 17 TDs in 15 games. He still has more non-PPR points than any receiver.

• Tom Brady and Matt Ryan are the two MVP finalists. Brady didn't need to do much Sunday, but still managed three TD passes, giving him 25, one more than Cousins in four fewer games.

• Cam Newton completed 18 of 43 passes. I faded the Panthers last Monday night in Washington because I thought they had checked out, and when I finally backed them at home against the Falcons, it looks like they actually did.

• Julio Jones had his first game all year with more than 35 and fewer than 106 receiving yards.

• Marcus Mariota broke his fibula, but barring a late-game comeback, the Titans were done for the year anyway. Mariota will be a top-10-ish QB next year on draft day.

• There's the Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson you drafted! Timing, in life, is everything.

• Derek Carr's broken leg is far most costly than Mariota's, obviously, with the Raiders vying for a first-round bye. It looks like Matt McGloin will be starting the Raiders first playoff game since the Super Bowl loss to the Bucs 14 years ago.

• Todd Gurley scored a TD, but even the 49ers defense couldn't free him - Gurley averaged only 2.9 YPC on his 23 chances.

• The Saints-Bucs game went more or less by the book except that Mark Ingram scored twice on the ground, and Drew Brees had only one TD through the air. Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks and Michael Thomas had their usual games.

• Doug Martin was a healthy scratch, apparently because the team wanted Peyton Barber on special teams. But instead of Charles Sims getting extra work, it was Jacquizz Rodgers. It was strange behavior from a team that just extended Martin with $15 million guaranteed last offseason.

• David Johnson cracked 100 yards for the 15th straight game and scored three touchdowns. He's this year's fantasy MVP, despite a first-round price tag, and it's not especially close.

• Russell Wilson won teams some championships going 350 and four, while rushing for 36 more yards, and Doug Baldwin had 171 and a TD receiving. Carson Palmer was highly efficient in Seattle, didn't throw a pick and took only one sack. The Seahawks are looking suspect heading into the playoffs.

• I didn't watch the Texans-Bengals, and I have nothing to say about it except it's fitting the AFC South winner got in on a missed FG.

• The Steelers-Ravens was exactly to form with the Steelers winning by half a point less than the Vegas line, Ben Roethlisberger having a good game at home, Le'Veon Bell getting his, Antonio Brown catching 10 balls and Joe Flacco spreading the ball around to nine different receivers, none of whom reached 80 yards. Also the indecipherable Kenneth Dixon/Terrence West split persisted with West now assuming the pass-catching duties.

• Like everyone else, the Chiefs couldn't throw outside on Denver, but why bother when Tyreek Hill has a 70-yard TD run, Alex Smith has a 24-yard TD run and Travis Kelce does the heavy lifting over the middle?

• Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Trevor Siemian were complete no-shows, and Denver's running game, as usual, was non-existent.

• I loved the TD pass from Dontari Poe with less than two minutes left in the game. At 346 pounds, he had to have set the record for heaviest person ever to throw a TD. That's an under-appreciated record and one that may stand the test of time.