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Week 8 Observations

I had gotten used to the early games starting at 7 pm in Berlin, but Lisbon is one hour behind, meaning Week 7, they started at 6 pm, or actually 2:30 pm if you count the London contest. But like the US, Portugal has daylight savings, only it kicks in one week earlier (October 30th, rather than November 6th.) So for Week 8, the London game started at 1:30 pm, and the early games 5 pm. I know it's not important to anyone else, but the constant switching messes with my head.

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(A famous square of which I didn't bother to look up the name. Above, small park in Príncipe Real.)

• I heard people complain on Twitter they cut away from the London game in overtime for the start of the 1:00 pm games. Being in the EU, I bought the entire package for 200 euros and stream every game in full without needing DirecTV and without blackouts.

• London games, like Thursday ones, are typically terrible, but the Bengals-Redskins was surprisingly good. Plus, when you take the underdog ATS, a tie is a win.

• Jay Gruden is a good coach. He's not afraid to go on 4th-and-short, mixes up plays well, isn't wedded to establishing the run and uses his timeouts on defense as soon as it's in his team's interest to extend the game.

• Rob Kelley runs hard, but barely gets what's blocked. Chris Thompson can't carry the load, so Kelley could keep seeing work, but he's not especially good.

• Tyler Eifert is the rare injured player worth the wait. He's the team's No. 2 receiver after A.J. Green and their top red-zone targets. His return boosts Andy Dalton's value too.

• Kirk Cousins is good, not great, but with the play-calling, Jordan Reed back and Jamison Crowder looking like a poor man's Antonio Brown, the setup is favorable. That said, Cousins' end-of-game, out-of-bounds, 20-yards-short-of-the-end-zone Hail Mary was one of the worst throws of all time.

• It's amazing Vernon Davis was freely available, and the Giants are still trotting out Larry Donnell's carcass.

• Josh Norman should have had two pick sixes, but he can't catch.

• I keep making the mistake of fading the Pats ATS and losing. It doesn't matter what the "value" is because the per-play metrics handicappers use apparently doesn't capture everything they do right. While good coaching translates into better per-play efficiency, it also means fewer punts/FG at the wrong times, better down-and-distance scenarios, more efficient clock management, etc., none of which are captured adequately.

• The Patriots threw 33 times and ran 21, not including a Brady scramble and Garoppolo kneel-down in a game they won by 16 and were leading the entire way. Why are other coaches not imitating the Patriots more?

• In a week where the chalk failed to come through (Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Russell Wilson and Mike Evans, Spencer Ware, among others), Rob Gronkowski was money in the bank.

• What a backdoor push by the Browns! Down 11, and they get the TD and the two - just amazing. But if you can't beat the Jets at home, you've got some 0-16 risk.

• The Jets need to get Christian Hackenberg or Bryce Petty some reps. The Ryan Fitzpatrick experiment has run its course.

• Matt Forte has 55 carries over the last two weeks - the Jets are content to use up the last of what's left in his tank.

• Gary Barnidge caught a 32-yard pass on the first drive and had two catches for 10 yards the rest of the way. So much for his rapport with Josh McCown.

• The Chiefs easily beat the Colts in Indy without Alex Smith for most and Spencer Ware for much of the game. They also get Justin Houston (29.5 sacks in his last 27 games) back at some point soon.

• Nick Foles targeted Travis Kelce 10 times with excellent results. It's too bad Smith won't do the same.

• With T.Y. Hilton playing hurt, the Colts passing game fell apart, even with Donte Moncrief back.

• Russell Wilson isn't himself. Not only is he still moving like Philip Rivers, but he's not crisp as a passer. His 4th-down, uncatchably-out-of-bounds  fade to Jermaine Kearse with the game on the line was terrible, and he missed a wide-open Jimmy Graham - instead forcing the ball to a covered receiver - on one of the previous drives. It's almost as if a normal QB would just sit out for four weeks and get healthy, while Wilson is forcing himself through it.

• Pick up C.J. Prosise now. He's their third-down back, Christine Michael isn't setting the world on fire and who knows if or when Thomas Rawls will be back.

• Mark Ingram fumbled early and was benched the entire game. Instead Tim Hightower treated us to a stuff-fest near the goal line, but he amassed 102 yards on big volume. Sean Payton sure showed us.

• Jack Del Rio deserves credit for going for it on 4th-and-4 in overtime, playing for the win and calling a play that not only gave them the first down, but won them the game.

• Amari Cooper is living up to his draft status this season, developing in Year 2 the way he was expected to. Derek Carr had all day to throw, but he made the most of it, not only racking up 500-plus, but doing it without making mistakes.

• Jameis Winston was under pressure all day from Khalil Mack, making the Tampa offense largely unwatchable.

• Carson Palmer has taken a beating in his long career, and absorbed eight more sacks Sunday. That 7.9 YPA and three TDs don't look as good with the sack yardage subtracted and the interception and fumble factored in. Moreover, his longest pass play was only 21 yards.

• Jonathan Stewart got two goal-line TDs, even though Cam Newton had his usual seven rushes. I'm not sure what to make of this.

• Brock Osweiler faced the league's worst defense and managed 6.4 YPA, a pick and three sacks at home. It's likely Houston will have another quarterback in 2017. John Elway's looking like a genius for letting him walk.

• DeAndre Hopkins is in Allen Robinson territory now. You don't need a great QB to power a monster season from an elite receiver, but below replacement-level competence is a problem.

 With San Diego scoring to cut the lead to five with eight minutes left, Mike McCoy rightfully opted to go for two and cut it to three. But the Chargers got a 10-yard penalty, making the two-point try from the 12. But as if on auto-pilot, McCoy ignored the vast downgrade in conversion-likelihood, and went for it anyway, when kicking the sure-thing PAT would have cut it to four and made a major difference in the event the Broncos kicked a field goal.  Of course, the Broncos did precisely that on their next possession, making the lead eight rather than seven.

• Philip Rivers had an ugly stat line, but played better than it would indicate. In Denver, without his top receiver Tyrell Williams early in the game, missing Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead, under a ton of pressure, Rivers still managed to move the ball against the league's best pass defense.

• I've dogged Melvin Gordon for much of the year, but he ran hard in this game, breaking tackles and moving the pile against a stout front seven.

With the Broncos up five late, Gary Kubiak, instead of going into a shell and hoping his defense would hold, called for downfield throws that set-up the field goal to put them up eight points. Kubiak is a much better coach in Denver than he was in Houston.

• Devontae Booker struggled to gain yards as the team's lead back. The offense as a whole didn't move the ball consistently, though game flow - due in part to a defensive score - was part of it.

• Aaron Rodgers had only 6.5 YPA, but he played much better than that with four TDs, no picks and 60 rushing yards, many of which resulted in back-breaking third-down conversions.

• Jordy Nelson made a big play early and caught a TD, but did little for the remainder of the game.

• Davante Adams showed great hands, but still managed only 74 yards on 14 targets.

• Matt Ryan got 8.2 YPA and led the Falcons to a win without Tevin Coleman and despite getting nothing from Julio Jones.

• Carson Wentz completed 32 passes for 202 yards (4.7 YPA). Oddly 33-year-old Darren Sproles is the Eagles' primary back now.

• Dez Bryant caught only four of 14 targets, but one of them went for 53 yards and another was a 22-yard TD. It's safe to say he's back.

• Dak Prescott had his worst game as a pro, but I suspect the Cowboys would have to lose before they'd make a switch to Tony Romo, and that's not likely in Week 9 against the Browns.

• Andre Johnson retired today, probably two seasons too late, but that's how it goes in the NFL. The same could be said for his former teammate Arian Foster. Matt Schaub is still active as the Falcons' backup, however.