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Week 2 Observations

It's interesting spending NFL Sunday on Central European Time. This week we were in Lake Balaton, Hungary at Heather's friend's house. It became clear around 4:30 pm (10:30 am ET) as we were hitting tennis balls in a light drizzle on some old clay courts we wouldn't make it back to the house, feed everyone, pack up and herd all the kids into the two cars in time to make it back to their apartment in Budapest by kickoff (7:00 pm). So the husband, Jolt Zsolt (that's how you say it, guessed on the spelling) and I bolted early in his 2000 Saab which he drove at 170 km/hour (105 mph), using the oncoming traffic lane on straightaways to pass, while I set my lineups, using my cellphone as a wifi hotspot. We arrived at the apartment around 7:10, and I holed myself up at an antique table in their office and watched on my laptop until two in the morning. (I probably should have taken a photo of the office, but I didn't, so this is the best I can do to set the scene):

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• I predicted the Giants would run too much and not target Odell Beckham down the field, and regrettably I was right. Eli Manning averaged 9.0 YPA against one of the league's worst pass defenses, but the Giants still ran 28 times for 69 yards and didn't throw deep until the final drive. Of course, the two deep passes resulted in an easy would-be TD that Beckham dropped and a game-sealing catch by Victor Cruz on the next play. But coach Ben McAdoo waited until the game was tied in the fourth quarter to play to his biggest matchup advantage. Before then  it was as if he had no idea who was on his team or what opponent he was playing.

•  After showing courage (and wisdom) in the first quarter by going for the TD on 4th and goal from the two rather than kicking a FG, McAdoo kicked the field goal on 4th-and-goal from the 1 in a tie game to go up three with nearly nine minutes left. If you don't score (against one of the league's worst defenses), you'd still have a significant advantage by having the Saints take over at the one-yard line. Instead, McAdoo left the TD on the table, got the field goal and kicked off.

• Eli Manning was fairly sharp and would have had a big day but for three fumbles, the failed fourth-down conversion and McAdoo's play calling. Manning has two things going for him: the poor run game, and the excellent receiving corps, but an improved defense, and McAdoo's poor game management and unwillingness to take shots down the field are headwinds.

• The Giants defense is at least decent this year, and it might be very good, but don't get too excited about holding Drew Brees to 6.0 YPA - his road YPA on the year was only 7.0 in 2015, and his TD/INT ratio only 9:6.

• Michael Thomas caught four of his five targets for 56 yards and looked agile, quick and hard to bring down while doing it. He's also 6-3, 212.

• It's too bad Josh McCown's hurt because there was some circus-atmosphere upside in Cleveland, and that's before counting Josh Gordon's return. Cody Kessler is likely to take over, but should he fail or get hurt, you have to wonder whether WR Terrelle Pryor could see a turn under center. If that happens with any regularity, he'd immediately be a top-20 WR with upside for more.

Rookie Corey Coleman had his breakout game, but with McCown out and Gordon coming back, the deck is re-shuffled. Isaiah Crowell could see a big workload, but his outlook was also brighter with a semi-competent veteran.

 • Neither Terrance West nor Justin Forsett has impressed over two games, making it more likely rookie Kenneth Dixon has a big role if and when he returns from his knee injury.

• Dennis Pitta was Joe Flacco's first read, racking up 12 targets and 102 yards. Steve Smith and Mike Wallace saw six targets each with Wallace scoring twice.

• Dak Prescott managed 9.7 YPA and got Dez Bryant 12 targets. The Cowboys aren't hiding him, and this might be the first stretch where Bryant prospers without Tony Romo. Incidentally, if Prescott continues to play well, it's conceivable he'd keep the job even after Romo got healthy. Why disrupt the flow for someone who will probably just get hurt again in the next game or two?

• Even though Alfred Morris scored a TD after Ezekiel Elliott was benched for fumbling, there's no way Dallas will bench its No. 4 overall pick for an extended stretch.

• The Bengals attempted 54 passes and 18 runs against the Steelers, the ratio the Giants should have had against the Saints.

• The Bengals shut down Antonio Brown, one week after largely shutting down Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. They are a tough team against which to pass.

• Through two games, 33-year old DeAngelo Williams is the league's top fantasy back, but he's merely averaging 4.1 YPC and 6.6 YPC. It's the volume (58 carries, 10 catches) on a good team that's paying the bills. When Le'Veon Bell returns in Week 4, he should see that kind of volume, only with more efficiency.

• Jimmy Garoppolo looked like a more mobile version of Tom Brady before he went down. Unlike in Dallas, there's a zero percent chance he'd keep the job once the incumbent returns - even if he hadn't gotten hurt. But it is amazing how well he's played both in Arizona (which destroyed Jameis Winston) and against the Dolphins (who destroyed Russell Wilson.) But it's hard to say how much is Garappolo and how much the Patriots system. Even Jacoby Brissett was competent when he came into the game.

• With Arian Foster hurt again, take a flier on rookie Kenyan Drake. Jay Ajayi has never shown much of a spark, and his attitude was poor once he lost the job too.

• Devante Parker is already a top-20 receiver, despite missing much of camp, Week 1 and still not being 100 percent over his hamstring injury. Parker's not only a size/speed freak, but he produced down the stretch last year. Of course, the buy-low window is probably closed. At least Ryan Tannehill should be available, and he could be throwing quite a bit to some quality targets.

• Martellus Bennett did what many expected last week with Rob Gronkowski out. Of course, Brissett is likely to start the Thursday game against the Texans.

• Some were excited about Matt Stafford after his strong finish in 2015 and big game against the Colts in Week 1, but all his damage was against league doormats. The Titans aren't even good, Stafford was at home, and he managed only 6.5 YPA.

• Golden Tate was an afterthought yesterday as Marvin Jones led the team in targets again. Eric Ebron was robbed of a TD on an offensive PI and seems to be a big part of the offense, especially in the red zone. Dwayne Washington might be worth a pickup if Ameer Abdullah (foot) is out.

• If the Panthers defense isn't good, Cam Newton will have another monster year, despite the tougher schedule. Kelvin Benjamin looks like a top-10 receiver right now. I wish I had any shares.

• With Jonathan Stewart out, some combination of Fozzy Whitaker and Cameron Artis-Payne will take over. I'm not sure how much it matters, though, as Newton steals most of the goal-line carries unless Mike Tolbert does, and Carolina rarely throws to its tailbacks, i.e., there's not much upside here, and the situation is uncertain.

• The Texans ran 34 times despite getting less than three yards per carry while the Chiefs ran only 19 times for 119 yards. (6.5 YPC). DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller saw 18 of Brock Osweiler's 33 pass attempts.

• The Seahawks are in trouble with Russell Wilson gimpy, and Doug Baldwin and Thomas Rawls also banged up. It would also help if they could block someone. Christine Michael was the team's most effective runner, and what looked like Rawls' job could be back up for grabs again, assuming Rawls is even healthy.

• I'd buy low on Todd Gurley if I could. Someone on Twitter traded Melvin Gordon for him, and I'd snap-call that. The Rams offense was awful last year too, and Gurley still produced.

• It was odd to see Jameis Winston still playing in a 40-7 game, and odder still for the Bucs to punt on 4th down. If you're going to leave your franchise quarterback in harm's way, at least give him all four downs to rack up stats!

• If Doug Martin is out, Charles Sims is theoretically a top-15 back, even if Sunday's game didn't bear that out.

• Carson Palmer looks like himself again after a poor showing in the playoffs and an unsightly preseason.

• I was an idiot for laying points with the Raiders, a team in which I don't believe. I counted on the Falcons being terrible on the road, but I should have taken the points.

• I have no idea what people see in Derek Carr.

• Of course Julio Jones is banged up again. It probably won't keep him out, but it seems like every week. Too much stress if he's your second or third overall pick.

• Devonta Freeman had a good game as a runner, but he didn't get a single target. Meanwhile Tevin Coleman got two catches for 25 yards.

• Don't start QBs in Denver. Even the great Newton had a modest day, and Luck was awful.

I had the Colts plus six, so I was aghast when Gary Kubiak opted for the field goal to go up six when the right play was to go for it on 4th-and-1 to end the game. The subsequent fumble TD was just a kick in the ass on the way out the door.

• Melvin Gordon looks like the only game in town now that Danny Woodhead's out for the year. I would sell high though as the efficiency (4.2 YPC), is modest, and he's only caught three passes. I'm glad I picked up a couple Tyrell Williams shares last week. At 6-4, 205 and with 4.44 speed, Williams has a good deal of upside in this offense, especially given Travis Benjamin (the No. 1) is a new arrival and Antonio Gates is 36 years old.

• The Jaguars are still bad, but Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson will get theirs.

• The Vikings are a good defense, but the Packers are still the same out-of-sync offense they were in 2015. If they don't put up huge numbers against the Lions at home this week, it might be time to let go of 2014 for good.

• According to Pro Football Focus, Adrian Peterson averaged only seven inches before contact so far this year, i.e., defenders were in the backfield before he could take half a step. Still, he's 31, can't catch passes, hasn't had room to run and now has torn his meniscus and could miss some time. Jerick McKinnon is the Jamaal Charlesesque home run play, but chance are Matt Asiata will get some work, particularly around the goal line.