An hour ago, I completed my first "Beat Chris Liss" NFFC draft. The entry fee is $350, and while there are prizes for winning your league ($1500) and taking second, the big draw is the $125,000 overall prize based on (1) qualifying for the playoffs; and (2) racking up points in Weeks 14-16. To that end, you want a team good enough to contend, but with enough upside to win the whole thing. It's a 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE, 1 FLEX, 1-K, 1-D PPR league with 10 bench spots. I had the second pick, but due to third-round reversal, I picked 11th in both Rounds 2 and 3, and second again in Round 4. Here are the results:
1.2 I knew I was taking Odell Beckham (or Antonio Brown in the unlikely event Team 1 took Beckham.) I thought I might try to stack Giants, getting Sterling Shepard in Round 6 or 7 and Eli Manning in Round 10 - that kind of strategy has upside in an overall contest.
2.11 The receivers were flying off the board at a pace even I'd never seen. Amari Cooper and T.Y. Hilton went ahead of Adrian Peterson and Ezekiel Elliott. Keenan Allen went at No. 7 overall. As such, with Beckham in hand, I took Le'Veon Bell. Once he's back, I'll have two top-five overall players, and if both are healthy come fantasy playoff time, look out.
3.11 The receiver run didn't stop. Players like Golden Tate, Donte Moncrief, Larry Fitzgerald and Eric Decker flew off the board before I picked, and because I had Beckham and Bell, I actually felt great about getting C.J. Anderson here. Not only did I need depth at RB while Bell is out, but with Beckham locking down one of the spots, I would still be okay at WR.
4.2 Even Kelvin Benjamin went ahead of my pick, and while I could have taken Jeremy Maclin or Davante Parker, I couldn't pass up Mark Ingram who caught 50 passes in 12 games last year. Moreover, I now no longer needed to worry about handcuffing Bell with an expensive DeAngelo Williams because Anderson and Ingram would lock things down for the four weeks Bell is out. And Ingram's biggest issue is health, but if he gives me four strong games, I can get off to a good start until Bell returns. If all three are healthy, I've now got my flex and Beckham.
5.11 I was hoping to get Sterling Shepard here or in early Round 6 to stack Giants with my trio of backs, but Shepard was taken two picks before my turn. I considered Kevin White, but played it safe with Emmanuel Sanders who should catch 70-plus balls on a team with a narrow receiving tree.
6.2 It turns out Kevin White was there on the way back, so I took him. Maybe Sanders doesn't get fed in a run-first offense, but White breaks out. Either way, I'm hoping for one of the two to complement Beckham.
7.11 Charles Sims will catch 50-plus and rush for 500 yards even if Doug Martin stays healthy all year. If Martin goes down, Sims could be a top-five back. In full PPR, he's also useful as a flex while Bell is out for four games.
8.2 Torrey Smith is the only experienced receiver on the team, and he's long been a big-play threat and should see some volume in Chip Kelly's offense.
9.11 I played chicken at quarterback and tight end for quite a while but picking on one of the ends, I didn't want to risk all the good ones being gone. I don't love Zach Ertz, but I think there's still a chance he breaks out, especially with a new coach calling the shots.
10.2 I wanted to get another upside receiver. I already have some shares of Dorial Green-Beckham, and I'm not sure he'll win a job. Reports on Michael Thomas thus far in camp are glowing, and the Saints don't have anyone (Brandon Coleman/Willie Snead) great standing in his way of being the No. 2 target.
11.11 Jerick McKinnon seemed like an easy choice given his pass-catching role (floor) and obvious ceiling should 31-year old Adrian Peterson get hurt.
12.2 Jameis Winston is my top breakout QB this year, and I had played chicken long enough. Had Team 1 taken him instead of Philip Rivers, I would have taken Kirk Cousins, my other favorite QB in this tier.
13.11 Backup QBs were flying off the board, and I figured I'd want to have someone in case Winston's great offseason proved to be a mirage. Matt Ryan was still there, but I gambled on Ryan Tannehill who has three things going for him this year: (1) Adam Gase's arrival; (2) Davante Parker's presence in Year 2; and (3) his rushing ability. The strike against him is he's Ryan Tannehill, but he's my second QB.
14.2 No one jumped out at me here, so I took my top defense. I don't think defenses are that predictable as a whole, but I'll bet on the extremes (top 1-3 being good, bottom 28-32 being poor.)
15.11 Terrance West could still win the Ravens RB job. I missed Breshard Perriman by two picks, though it's anyone's guess if he'll even be healthy.
16.2 Karlos Williams was hanging around, and while he's fat, injured and suspended, he was awfully good last year when he played. Give LeSean McCoy a few games to get hurt, and his scrubby backups a chance to be ineffective.
17.11 Marqise Lee was a star in college, but has been banged up for most of his two-year career. He's unfortunately nursing a hamstring injury in camp, but the pedigree and experience level are right for a breakout.
18.2 I was pissed Team 1 snaked my favorite kicker Justin Tucker, and it was a long time before I picked again, so I took Steven Hauschka as a consolation prize.
19.11 Bill Belichick for the first time in his life said something nice about Aaron Dobson, so I drafted him. I feel better about this than taking him in the ninth round a couple years ago.
20.2 I had no backup tight end - thought I could wait on Austin Seferian Jenkins, but I was mistaken - so I took Jace Amaro who had a promising rookie year before missing 2015 with an injury.
Team By Position
QB: Jameis Winston/Ryan Tannehill
RB: Le'Veon Bell/C.J. Anderson/Mark Ingram/Charles Sims/Jerick McKinnon/Terrence West/Karlos Williams
WR: Odell Beckham/Emmanuel Sanders/Kevin White/Torrey Smith/Michael Thomas/Marqise Lee/Aaron Dobson
TE: Zach Ertz/Jace Amaro
K: Steven Hauschka
D: Broncos