Being wrong about the NFL is an interesting experience - you're surprised at the particulars (which team won or lost, which players scored TDs), but not at all surprised you were wrong. There's a dissonance between what you believe will happen and the knowledge that your belief could easily be wrong. So it was with the Patriots who I expected to roll Sunday, but I knew were only three-point favorites for a reason.
• The AFC title game wasn't great, but it picked up in the final six minutes. After Denver stuffed the Patriots twice, the third drive was one of the more dramatic in recent memory with Tom Brady converting a 4th and 10 near midfield to Rob Gronkowski on a 40-yard, perfectly thrown lob down the middle. It took another four downs for a Gronkowski score, but the Patriots failed to convert the two-point try, and it was game over.
• The play-call on the two-point try was bizarre - Brady seemed to roll right and throw back into coverage. With only two yards to gain you'd think running would be an option, but the Patriots lacked quality backs, and the Denver defense stuffed everything on the ground all day.
• The Patriots skill players proved they were healthy against the Chiefs, but the offensive line was the bigger problem against a fierce Broncos pass rush. Moreover, the loss of Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount left New England with only a washed up Steven Jackson, Brandon Bolden and James White.
• White saw a ton of targets, as the Broncos' corners effectively took Julian Edelman out of the game. White seemed to come up just short on a couple wheel routes, though it looked like the Denver defenders bumped him 10-yards into it both times.
• The Broncos offense did nearly nothing the entire second half, and had the game gone on another quarter, the Patriots would likely have won.
• One can blame the missed PAT in the first quarter for the Pats loss (they wouldn't otherwise have needed two points at the end) but the whole game would have been different had Stephen Gostkowski not missed for the first time in 524 tries.
• The Pats had a chance to kick the FG on the third-to-last drive to cut the deficit to five, and that might have been the difference - but only if (again) everything else transpired in exactly the same way. Had Denver managed two first downs on the subsequent drive, we'd be killing Bill Belichick for kicking it. The right course of action at the time can't be based on things we know only after the fact.
• Peyton Manning managed 5.5 YPA, took three sacks where he looked like an old man cowering into the dirt while being mugged and completed only two passes of 20-plus yards. I'd honestly start Brock Osweiler over him in the Super Bowl, but barring an injury that will never happen.
• Give Gary Kubiak/Manning a little credit, though, for throwing on third down during the penultimate drive and trying to win the game. It gave the Patriots an extra 30 seconds, but time wasn't the issue, and a first down would have sealed it.
• The Patriots loss has to sting because they were the better team, and but for a loss in Week 17 to the Dolphins would have played that game in New England. Moreover, Tom Brady had a shot at a fifth Super Bowl, something no quarterback has ever done.
• I can't say I'm excited about watching Peyton Manning's carcass in the Super Bowl, but the Denver defense could keep the game close.
• Carson Palmer had such a great year and awful playoffs. Once Andy Dalton's Bengals were eliminated, someone had to do it. I misread the Packers-Cardinals game as an aberration, but Palmer was off his game since the Week 17 against Seattle. His pick in the end zone on first down from the 20 after the Patrick Peterson interception was particularly egregious.
• Cam Newton made it look easy because it was. He averaged 12.0 YPA, threw two TDs and ran for two more. Somehow a receiving corps of Ted Ginn, Devin Funchess and Corey Brown doesn't seem so bad.
• David Johnson was the Cardinals lone bright spot, and he'll have a case to be the No. 1 RB off the board next year.
• Luke Keuchly returned an interception for a touchdown in both of the team's playoff games, victimizing two of the league's MVP candidates, Palmer and Russell Wilson.
• It was odd to see the Panthers kneel on the ball with more than a minute left and turn it over on downs. The margin was 34, so there was no risk, but you just never see that done. That left Carson Palmer and the Cardinals to execute an embarrassing and half-hearted garbage time drive during which Michael Floyd caught a couple passes, but did not even try to get out of bounds. What would the NFL do without gambling and fantasy football?