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Division Round Observations

I'm on vacation in Idaho this week, but I was able to catch most of the games. I opted out of a big chunk of Denver-Pittsburgh because (1) it was getting dark, and I wanted to get some sledding in with my daughter; and (2) the game was so boring and poorly played I couldn't take it anymore.

The Broncos should turn to Brock Osweiler. Obviously there's no chance this actually happens given how cowardly Gary Kubiak is, but it's impossible to score consistently when the opposing defense knows you won't beat it deep. Peyton Manning was victimized by a ton of drops, so his day wasn't as bad as it looked, but keep in mind that was against one of the league's worst pass defenses. I expect the Patriots to bring pressure, knowing the downside is a short completion.

Apparently Vegas agrees with me because New England is laying three in Denver next weekend. I'm going to take the Pats as long as the line stays under seven (which of course it will.)

The Steelers threw deep on the first play of the game to send the message that Ben Roethlisberger could make all the throws and Denver would have to defend the entire field. I felt that was a sign of weakness because why bother to prove that if Roethlisberger's arm truly were fine. As it turned out, Roethlisberger put up 9.2 YPA, but it was a lot of catch-and-run, especially on the Darrius Heyward-Bey blown coverage.

I picked the Chiefs plus five last week because I had no idea which version of the Patriots would show up, and the Chiefs were a good team. It turns out the nearly full-strength one was back, and that's arguably the best team in the NFL.

Even though I went 1-3 against the spread, there was only one game I felt I got flat-out wrong, and that was the Cardinals-Packers. While the Packers needed a Hail Mary (after escaping a 4th-and-20 from their own end zone with a minute left and no timeouts) to send it to overtime and prevent what seemed like a sure ATS push, Green Bay was the right side all game. Not only was the contest close throughout, but the Cardinals went ahead on a tipped ball that luckily went right into Michael Floyd's hands in the end zone.

It's amazing Aaron Rodgers was able to wheel and fire out of his own end zone on 4th-and-20 to complete a pass at midfield, and do it all over again on the game's final regulation play. Few quarterbacks in league history could get off that kind of throw while scrambling for their lives. It goes to show how stupid Mike McCarthy was (1) not to involve Jeff Janis all year; and (2) running a toothless dink and dunk offense all year with a talent like Rodgers.

Rodgers aside, I still can't get over how the Cardinals let a team convert on 4th and 20 with the game on the line against them.

There's often talk about how West Coast teams flying east for an early game are handicapped by the 10 am body clock, and you never know whether it'll have an effect. The Vegas line (Panthers minus two) didn't make much of it, but it's hard not to think it was a factor given the Seahawks lost the first half 31-0 and won the second 24-0. The same thing seemed to happen three years ago when the Falcons won the first half 20-0, and the Seahawks won the second 28-10, only to fall two points short of the win in the 2013 divisional playoff round.

I had a nice DFS day backing the Seattle passing game, but it could have been a lot bigger had Rodgers not connected on the Hail Mary and gifted Carson Palmer 80 yards and a TD in overtime.

Speaking of which, Larry Fitzgerald had a huge game, but I couldn't help but notice how slow he was on the overtime run. He took great angles and broke tackles, but John Brown might have scored untouched.

Andy Reid's clock management in the closing minutes of the New England game has been properly mocked on Twitter, so I won't do a blow by blow here. I'm just glad he and McCarthy are out of the playoffs, and I expect Kubiak to fall next. Coaches like that have no business calling the shots in big games.

I mentioned this before on Twitter, but three of the four teams remaining have quarterbacks who were active in 2003.