This article is part of our In-Season Strategy series.
Midway through Week 13 of the Fantasy basketball season, Nick Whalen checks in on the rookies making an impact around the league.
Donovan Mitchell, Jazz
Ben Simmons is still the Rookie of the Year frontrunner, but Mitchell is making a compelling case of his own. The Jazz are still on the outside looking in when it comes to the Western Conference playoff race, but Mitchell is leading all rookies in scoring (18.5 PPG), while ranking second in steals (1.9), sixth in assists (3.4), and second in made threes (2.2) per game.
Efficiency-wise, Mitchell has been up-and-down, and he's particularly struggled from three-point range (30.4%) in seven games since returning from a toe injury. That's to be expected from a 21-year-old, though, and Mitchell is still shooting a very palatable 43.9 percent from the field for the season. In leagues that don't value percentages, Mitchell ranks as the 53rd-best player, two spots behind Klay Thompson and ahead of the likes of Myles Turner, Harrison Barnes and Otto Porter.
Jayson Tatum, Celtics
Like Mitchell, Tatum is another player who may have ran away with the Rookie of the Year award had he been a part of the 2016 draft class. Tatum doesn't have the gaudy counting stats of Mitchell, Simmons or even Kyle Kuzma, but he's quietly been among the league's most efficient players -- rookies or otherwise. In terms of advanced stats, Tatum blows the rest of the rookie class out of the water, leading
Midway through Week 13 of the Fantasy basketball season, Nick Whalen checks in on the rookies making an impact around the league.
Donovan Mitchell, Jazz
Ben Simmons is still the Rookie of the Year frontrunner, but Mitchell is making a compelling case of his own. The Jazz are still on the outside looking in when it comes to the Western Conference playoff race, but Mitchell is leading all rookies in scoring (18.5 PPG), while ranking second in steals (1.9), sixth in assists (3.4), and second in made threes (2.2) per game.
Efficiency-wise, Mitchell has been up-and-down, and he's particularly struggled from three-point range (30.4%) in seven games since returning from a toe injury. That's to be expected from a 21-year-old, though, and Mitchell is still shooting a very palatable 43.9 percent from the field for the season. In leagues that don't value percentages, Mitchell ranks as the 53rd-best player, two spots behind Klay Thompson and ahead of the likes of Myles Turner, Harrison Barnes and Otto Porter.
Jayson Tatum, Celtics
Like Mitchell, Tatum is another player who may have ran away with the Rookie of the Year award had he been a part of the 2016 draft class. Tatum doesn't have the gaudy counting stats of Mitchell, Simmons or even Kyle Kuzma, but he's quietly been among the league's most efficient players -- rookies or otherwise. In terms of advanced stats, Tatum blows the rest of the rookie class out of the water, leading the way in win shares by a mile and ranking only behind Simmons in Basketball-Reference's VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) statistic.
Even after a recent -- and probably long-overdue -- shooting slump, the Duke product is still among the league leaders in three-point percentage (46.2%), and holds virtually the same True Shooting percentage as James Harden.
The bottom line: Rookies -- especially 19-year-old rookies -- aren't supposed to step in and be this good from day one. Hats off to Danny Ainge for having the foresight to not only take Tatum, but to trade down and grab assets in the process.
Given Boston's roster construction -- not to mention the very real possibility that Ayton, Bamba, Doncic, Porter or Bagley could be on the way come June -- Tatum's long-term ceiling is difficult to project. On almost any other team, it's easy to imagine him matching Mitchell's production, but Tatum may never be more than the Celtics' second or third option, at least in the short-term.
John Collins, Hawks
After a strong start to the season, Collins has been a bit more inconsistent in recent weeks, which has coincided with Atlanta firmly establishing itself as the worst team in the NBA. Since returning from a six-game injury absence on Dec. 14, Collins is averaging 10.1 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, while adding 1.5 blocks and 1.5 assists. Overall, those numbers are essentially on-par with his season averages, though he's sprinkled in a few no-shows in that span, including Monday's three-point, four rebound effort in a career-low eight minutes of action.
Of course, that falls more on the shoulders of Mike Budenholzer than Collins, himself, as the Hawks have been hesitant to deploy the rookie for more than 20-25 minutes on most nights. Atlanta is young and very, very bad so the experimentation is expected, but the hope is that Collins will be extended a longer leash over the season's second half, particularly if Atlanta is able to move a veteran like Ersan Ilyasova before the deadline.
Jordan Bell, Warriors
With the Warriors almost back to full health, Bell's honeymoon period appears to be over. He's still a part of the regular rotation, but over the last four games, Bell is averaging just 2.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 0.8 blocks in 15.3 minutes. The passing ability for his position remains a valuable asset -- Bell had five assists in 16 minutes against the Clippers over the weekend -- but he's very difficult to justify starting even in deeper leagues right now.
Lonzo Ball, Lakers
Ball snapped an eight-game double-digit-scoring streak Tuesday against the Kings, but he still finished with 11 assists, 11 rebounds and five steals to go with his five points. His shot is still going to come-and-go on a regular basis, but Ball's percentages have been infinitely more palatable over the last few weeks.
He's hitting nearly 40 percent of his 7.0 three-point attempts per game since Dec. 9 -- Ball did miss six games with a shoulder injury during that span -- while maintaining strong counting statistics. In non-percentage leagues, Ball has been a top-50 player on the season, due in some part to his surprising production on the defensive end. Ball ranks third among rookies in steals per game (1.5), and fourth among all guards in blocks, trailing only Danny Green, Victor Oladipo and Ben Simmons.
Kyle Kuzma, Lakers
Luke Walton tossed a soaking-wet blanket on Kuzmania last week when he moved the rookie to the bench in an effort to generate a spark with the Lakers in the midst of a then-nine-game losing streak. While the Lakers lost that game to Charlotte, and Kuzma had one of his worst games of the season (four points, 2-14 FG), L.A. has somewhat righted the ship with back-to-back, double-digit wins over the Hawks and Kings, which, technically, do count for something.
Nonetheless, Kuzma's short-term production has suffered. He's averaging just 24.1 minutes over the last five games, more than 10 fewer minutes per game than he averaged in month of December. With Kuzma's ability to get hot at a moment's notice and the Lakers' rotation likely to continue changing on a near-nightly basis, it's too early for Kuzma owners to panic, but his workload is something to keep monitoring in the coming weeks.
Bam Adebayo, Heat
Adebayo's ownership in CBS leagues sits at 20 percent after an encouraging stint as the fill-in for Hassan Whiteside last month, but his current production is far too consistent to warrant starting consideration in most formats. That said, he's shown flashes of being more NBA-ready than expected, and he's coming off of his best showing of the season Tuesday night in Toronto, when he put up 16 points (8-14 FG), 15 rebounds, three assists and five blocks in 33 minutes off the bench. Granted, Miami was essentially down to seven players after James Johnson was ejected early in the second half, but Adebayo appears to have permanently secured a rotation spot, albeit one that could shrink whenever Justise Winslow returns.
Lauri Markkanen, Bulls
It's been a while since we've checked in on Markkanen, who continues to have a strong rookie season for a Bulls team that's looked borderline-competent over the last month. Markkanen ranks fourth among rookies in scoring (14.9 PPG), second in rebounding (7.6), and first in made threes per game (2.3). While the Bulls have come back to Earth of late, dropping five of their last six contests, Markkanen has scored in double-figures in eight straight games and is averaging 17.6 points on 51.5 percent shooting (44.4% 3PT) over that span.
Daniel Theis, Celtics
The 25-year-old is only one percent owned in CBS leagues, and for good reason, but he's forced his way onto the fringes of the deep-league/dynasty radar in recent weeks with a handful of strong performances. Strong performances is a loose term when talking about a player averaging 13 minutes per game, but Theis has grabbed double-digit rebounds in three of his last eight games, while flashing some modest comfortability from beyond the arc.
Jarrett Allen, Nets
Now that Jahlil Okafor is apparently in shape to play professional basketball, we probably won't see quite as much of Allen as we'd like. The Texas product rarely plays more than 20-22 minutes, but he continues to show signs that he could develop into a solid starter down the road.
Allen had 16 points, six rebounds and two blocks in a win over Orlando on New Year's Day and is coming off of a 14-point, five-rebound performance in Monday's loss to the Raptors. Unless Kenny Atkinson is willing to install Allen as a 25-plus-minute player over the second half of the season, Allen can be mostly ignored in season-long leagues, but he remains an intriguing dynasty asset.
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kings
Is a 25-year-old rookie from Belgrade the Kings' best player? At the very least, it's a debate. Over the last 10 games, Bogdanovic is averaging 13.2 points, 4.1 assists, and 2.8 rebounds while hitting 55.4 percent of his field goals and 45.2 percent of his threes (3.1 3PA/G). In a rotation that's been constantly in flux, Bogdanovic has played at least 30 minutes in five of the last seven games and over the course of the season has been more reliable than De'Aaron Fox.
Fox has come on of late, however, putting up 15.3 points, 6.0 assists, 2.8 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 1.3 made threes (!!) in four games since returning from injury.
Terrance Ferguson, Thunder
Prior to Andre Roberson's injury, Ferguson had been on the outskirts of Billy Donovan's rotation while splitting time between the Thunder and their G-League affiliate. With Roberson out, Ferguson has started each of the last four games and has logged at least 30 minutes in three of those contests.
While he burst onto the scene with 24 points, including six three-pointers, in a blowout win over the Lakers on Jan. 3, Ferguson has scored 13 combined points over the Thunder's last three games. The 19-year-old is dripping with long-term potential, but once Roberson returns he'll likely go back to a minimal role -- fingers crossed we'll see Ferguson at the dunk contest in Los Angeles.
Caleb Swanigan, Trail Blazers
Just a quick note on Swanigan, who was sent to the G-League before Christmas and is expected to remain there for at least another week. The Purdue product was the most productive player in the draft, but he fell out of the rotation in November and never recovered.
Keep Swanigan on the back-burner in longer-term formats, but at this point it would be a surprise if he makes a tangible Fantasy impact as a rookie.
