This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
DAL (-4.5) vs. CHA, O/U: 220
MIL (-10.5) vs. DET, O/U: 226.5
BKN (-5.5) vs. NY, O/U: 218.5
LAL (-8.0) vs. OKC, O/U: 216.5
MEM vs. MIN (-3), O/U: 220.5
ATL vs. PHX (-6), O/U: 227
NO vs. LAC (-7.5), O/U: 218
POR (-3.5) vs. SAC, O/U: 236
Wednesday's slate tips off 7:00 p.m. EST and includes eight games. Kristaps Porzingis is scheduled to make his season debut tonight while Karl-Anthony Towns is likely to return from a one-game absence. Kevin Durant starred again last night for Brooklyn and he's expected to play the second night of a back-to-back against the Knicks. Lonzo Ball has already been ruled out for the Pelicans.
The POR-SAC game has whopping 236 point total and is the last game on tonight's slate which makes it ideal to target. Jusuf Nurkic is listed as questionable and his potential absence would open up some value. De'Aaron Fox is coming off a big game and has seen a significant reduction in salary while CJ McCollum has eclipsed 50 DK points in back-to-back games. Tonight's up-tempo matchup should favor both guards.
NO-LAC also tips off at 10:00 p.m. EST and the Pelicans have already ruled out Lonzo Ball while Eric Bledsoe is listed as questionable. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is likely to be a popular value option and targeting both late games provides good flexibility to deal with whatever late news we get. I plan on fading the earlier games except for a few one-offs.
Injuries to Monitor
Karl-Anthony Towns (wrist): QUESTIONABLE
Towns is expected to play tonight after sitting out the second night of a back-to-back on Sunday.
Damian Lillard (ankle): PROBABLE
Kyrie Irving (personal): OUT
Irving isn't expected to play at all this week. Bruce Brown ($3,300) got the start in his place last night while Caris LeVert ($8,000) came off the bench.
Anthony Davis (toe): QUESTIONABLE
Davis jammed his toe last night and is still experiencing some discomfort. He could be a game-time decision tonight. If he misses, Markieff Morris ($3,300) would see increased minutes.
Kristaps Porzingis (knee): PROBABLE
Porzingis is on track to make his season debut tonight.
Clint Capela (hand): QUESTIONABLE
Capela picked up a hand injury on Monday. If he were to sit tonight, Bruno Fernando ($3,000) and Onyeka Okongwu ($3,000) could see more run.
Buddy Hield (ankle): PROBABLE
Hield played through an ankle sprain on Monday and is expected to play again tonight.
Lonzo Ball (knee): OUT
Ball will miss his first game of the season tonight. Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,100) could start in his place.
Jusuf Nurkic (quad): QUESTIONABLE
Nurkic played only nine minutes on Monday before exiting with a quad injury. Enes Kanter ($4,800) could see increased run if Nurkic sits tonight.
Eric Bledsoe (eye): QUESTIONABLE
Bledsoe irritated his eye last Friday. If he sits out tonight, JJ Redick ($3,300) and Josh Hart ($5,400) would likely see expanded roles.
Richaun Holmes (ankle): PROBABLE
Holmes was late scratch last Friday with an ankle issue but returned on Monday and played 36 minutes while putting up a big double-double. He's expected to play tonight.
Elite Players
Luka Doncic ($10,800) and Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,600) are the most expensive players on tonight's slate. The return of Kristaps Porzingis will make some people hesitate to roster Doncic tonight but his usage and fantasy output suffers only slightly when the two play together. It's hard for me to trust the minutes for Giannis when the Bucks are 10.5-point favorites. From a raw points perspective, I like Doncic over Giannis tonight but I'm not sure it's optimal to spend all the way up for studs on a slate that lacks clear, cheap value.
At center, Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800), Julius Randle ($9,100) and Anthony Davis ($9,000) are all good options instead of Giannis. Towns is likely to be significantly more popular, making Randle and Davis good tournament options. Davis appears to be truly questionable after jamming his toe last night and the Lakers could exercise caution on the second night of a back-to-back.
LeBron James ($9,600) and Damian Lillard ($9,500) round out the elite point guards. I would have a lot of interest in James if Anthony Davis were to sit. Lillard is listed as probable after emerging from Monday's game with an ankle issue. He's in a great spot tonight in an up-tempo matchup against the Kings and always has the upside to be the slate's highest scorer.
Kawhi Leonard ($9,700) and Kevin Durant ($9,400) are the elite options at forward. Leonard hasn't consistently hit the heights we're used to seeing this season while Durant has starred in the absence of Kyrie Irving. Even though he's playing the second night of a back-to-back, Durant will be a popular spend-up option and I'm leaning that way as well.
Expected Chalk
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,100)
Alexander-Walker is expected to start for the injured Lonzo Ball tonight. On a slate without much for cheap value, I'd expect him to be popular in cash games and tournaments tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800)
Towns returned after a six-game absence on Saturday and played 37 minutes while scoring 54.25 DK points. He had been slated to be on "minutes limit" but after seeing 37 in his first game back, those concerns seem to have been eased. He sat out the second night of a back-to-back on Sunday and appears ready to go again tonight.
Kevin Durant ($9,400)
Durant had another big game last night as he continues to run the show for Brooklyn, who will be without Kyrie Irving again tonight. Durant is expected to play the second night of a back-to-back against the Knicks and while that could be slight cause for concern, I expect him to be a popular spend-up option.
Value Picks
CJ McCollum ($8,600)
McCollum is in great spot against the Kings in a game with slate's highest total. He's taking nearly 21 shots per game this season and has put up over 50 DK points in back-to-back games.
De'Aaron Fox ($7,400)
Fox had been consistently priced in the low 8K range for most of the season but now sits at $7,400 and is playing in an ideal spot tonight in the late game with the highest total. He's coming off an impressive performance in Monday's win over the Pacers.
LaMelo Ball ($7,200)
Ball's salary continues to creep up but his upside is just too big to ignore. He's still putting up north of 40 DK points even in games where he doesn't shoot well. He's averaged nine assists while grabbing double-digit rebounds in each of the past three games.
Blake Griffin ($6,200)
Griffin faces a tough matchup against the Bucks tonight but if the game stays completive, he should have no problem hitting value and carries ceiling potential for a reduced salary.
Carmelo Anthony ($4,200)
Anthony saw extended run at center after Jusuf Nurkic exited last game early. Even if Nurkic plays, Anthony is good value in a great matchup against the Kings tonight. If Nurkic does sit, look to Enes Kanter (4,800). He would be a popular value option at center and he carries big upside for tournaments whenever he's line for extended minutes.
