This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Another intriguing slate of NBA postseason action awaits Wednesday, with one possible elimination game on tap in Raptors-Celtics, and a potential series-turning game capping off the night in Nuggets-Clippers. Both Boston and LA took tighter control of their postseason destinies with their respective victories Monday, although the Celtics accomplished theirs in more convincing fashion.
We'll begin by diving into the projected total for Wednesday's two games, followed by an examination of the general state of each position, a review of key injuries and a look at expected chalk plays and both under-the-radar and popular value plays to consider.
Before delving into the slate, a reminder that FanDuel has reverted to its previous format of NOT dropping the lowest scoring in lineups after a one-year experiment with that feature. Therefore, it will be important to be prudent with each selection, as each player's total will count toward your final score.
Without further ado, let's get into Wednesday's slate!
Slate Overview
Here's a further look at the two games on Wednesday's slate:
Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors (Projected total: 210.0 points)
Despite a lopsided victory for the Celtics on Monday, the two teams once again combined for an extremely modest point total. In the case of Game 5, it was just 200 points, That continued a series-long trend of Boston's defense in particular often exerting its will on the Raps, and it also was the fifth sub-210-point total in as many postseason games between the two squads. Toronto has seemingly had to scratch and claw for every point it's gotten thus far; given the Raptors have also often put in a solid defensive effort themselves, I can see the two teams scuffling for offense at times again, and some of the higher-priced stars in this game – Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet in particular – having a difficult time paying off their still-elevated salaries.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets (Projected total: 220.0 points)
The Clippers bounced back from a poor Game 2 performance to retake the series lead Monday, but it certainly wasn't easy. The 113-107 win for Los Angeles marked the most combined points by the two teams in the series' first three games. The Nuggets did look completely out of sorts back in Game 1, but after strong efforts in the subsequent pair of contests, that appears to have simply been largely a hangover effect from their tough first-round series against the Jazz. The two squads seem to match up very closely against each other and both are healthy, so this number may be very much in line with what could transpire.
Positional Breakdown
PG: Kyle Lowry, Jamal Murray and Kemba Walker once again head up the pool, while Lou Williams and Patrick Beverley are seemingly the safest value choices. It may be a bit of a case of buyer beware on Lowry, however, considering how effective Marcus Smart was defending him in Game 5 while helping limit the star guard to 10 points.
SG: Paul George once again sits atop the healthy shooting guard pool and seems to have solved his early-playoff shooting woes by scoring 34.4 to 45.8 FD points in the first three games against Denver. Fred VanVleet, who follows him on the salary scale, can't exactly say the same, as he's drained just 34.4 percent of his attempts in the series against the Celtics. Smart and Gary Harris, the latter who thrived as a Monday value suggestion with 32.2 FD points, are your two best value choices at the two.
SF: Small forward continues to arguably be one of the deeper positions on the slate, with Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam, Jaylen Brown, OG Anunoby and Jerami Grant representing the top choices. However, as with Lowry, there's a certain amount of risk with Siakam after the Celtics limited him to 10 points over 28 minutes in Game 5.
PF: The big story at power forward is the possible absence of Serge Ibaka, who could be a game-time decision due to an ankle injury suffered Monday. Jayson Tatum remains the top option, while outside of Ibaka, Daniel Theis, Marcus Morris and Michael Porter are your likeliest next-safest options. Paul Millsap continues to have some up and down to his production but remains a tournament consideration, and JaMychal Green is even more speculative. Then, if Ibaka is forced to sit, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson could become a popular but useful value selection at just $3.6K.
C: Nikola Jokic as your one elite option, and the Clippers duo of Montrezl Harrell and Ivica Zubac are next in line in terms of fantasy consideration. Marc Gasol and Robert Williams have very capped upside in this series, while Enes Kanter continues to mostly be relegated to the bench. There's also a chance Chris Boucher sees an uptick in playing time while helping fill in for Ibaka if the latter sits out.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Serge Ibaka, TOR
Ibaka appears to be a game-time decision due to an ankle sprain he suffered in Monday's Game 5 loss. The veteran will apparently be reevaluated after Toronto's morning workouts. Chris Boucher and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson could be the biggest beneficiaries of an Ibaka absence.
Vincent Poirier, BOS (personal)- QUESTIONABLE
Vlatko Cancar, DEN (foot)- OUT
Oshae Brissett, TOR (knee)- QUESTIONABLE
Longer-term injuries/absences: Gordon Hayward, BOS; Javonte Green, BOS; Patrick McCaw, TOR; Will Barton, DEN
Elite Players
We have just one five-figure salary player in Kawhi Leonard ($10.5K), while. Nikola Jokic ($9.9K), Jayson Tatum ($9.4K), Kyle Lowry ($8.9K) and Jamal Murray ($8.5K) follow Leonard on the salary scale.
Beyond that group, consider Kemba Walker ($8.3K), Paul George ($8.2K) and Pascal Siakam ($8K) are the three next-cheapest candidates capable of offering elite-level production on their salaries. Nevertheless, it bears noting both Lowry (22.9 FD points in 34 minutes) and Siakam (15.8 FD points in 28 minutes) both significantly underwhelmed in Toronto's lopsided Game 5 loss Monday.
Expected Chalk
All of the players just listed in the prior section are certainly going to be on plenty of rosters, along with talented mid-priced players with secure roles in Jaylen Brown and Ibaka, if healthy.
As usual, I've also compiled the names of some sub-$6K value plays that should also find themselves on plenty of rosters – including a couple of Raptors whose popularity would shoot up if Ibaka missed Wednesday's contest -- and listed them under the next section.
Key Value
Patrick Beverley, LAC vs. DEN ($4,800)
Beverley has upped his playing time with each passing game in the series, topping out at 20 minutes on Monday. That allotment led to 21.3 FD points, his highest of his first three games back from a calf injury. The veteran guard can check off every box on the stat sheet and has enjoyed success versus the Nuggets prior to this series, having already posting 26.7 FD points against Denver Jan. 12 across 28 minutes. He also draws a good matchup statistically, as Denver has allowed the fourth-highest three-point shooting percentage (37.6) to point guards, while Beverley has shot more than 38.0 percent from distance in five consecutive campaigns. Given that he's slowly built back up as this series has unfolded, he still may not be rostered anywhere near as high as he would be had he been playing uninterrupted.
Other under-the-radar value plays to consider: Paul Millsap, DEN ($4,900)
Popular value plays to consider:
Serge Ibaka, TOR ($5,800); Marcus Smart, BOS ($5,700); Daniel Theis, BOS ($5,600); Lou Williams, LAC ($5,500); Michael Porter, DEN ($5,400); Gary Harris, DEN ($5,300); Marcus Morris, DEN ($5,100); Jerami Grant, DEN ($5,000); Montrezl Harrell, LAC ($5,000); Chris Boucher, TOR ($3,900) *if Ibaka is out; Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, TOR ($3,600) *if Ibaka is out*
